The Los Angeles Sparks might not win many games this season, but the flashes shown by rookies Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson make for a bright future.
For the Connecticut Sun, the future is now. With other contenders looking vulnerable, they’re stacking wins in an effort to seize control at the top of the standings.
My Sparks vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks for Tuesday, June 18 detail why this matchup should be even more lopsided than oddsmakers predict.
Sparks vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Sun -13.5 (-115 at betway)
My analysis
When judging a matchup forecasted to be as lopsided as the one on Tuesday between the Los Angeles Sparks and Connecticut Sun, it’s important to look at everything.
The Sun are between 13.5 and 14-point favorites against the Sparks, but when that line got bet down briefly to -12.5 on Monday afternoon, money was there to be bet it right back up shortly after. That looks like sharp action to me.
While I would have liked to get in at -12.5, -13.5 is still solid value given the Sun’s two-way dominance and the way their strengths attack the Sparks' many weaknesses. Connecticut is the best team in the W by net rating at +13.2 while L.A. is third lowest at -7.3. Connecticut is also at home, and they have an extra day of rest in their pocket compared to the Sparks.
The young Sparks are the most turnover prone squad in the W at 21.2% of their possessions. The Sun are among the best at capitalizing on those mistakes, scoring 17.9 points off turnovers per game.
L.A. is a young team that is still finding its way. The Sun live to eat those teams alive. They’re 4-0 against the spread against teams with a losing record in their last four.
The Sun have arguably the best half-court defense in the league, which means getting some easy ones in transition is essential if a lower output offense like Los Angeles wants to keep things competitive. But the Sparks generate among the fewest fast break points league-wide. That means they’ll be facing a set Sun defense more often than not, and their chances of breaking the Sun’s defensive shell are slim.
One thing these young Sparks do have is interior size. Against a worse version of the same kind of team, that might be a significant edge. But the Sun are not bothered by size and even the world’s best rim protectors struggle to contain their inside attack.
They just made the Dallas Wings, the biggest team in the W fronted by the biggest center, look small and impotent next to their relentless paint attack. If Brionna Jones can move Teaira McCowan out of the way with ease, it’s an awful lot to ask of rookie center Cameron Brink to stand tall against that kind of force — let alone Alyssa Thomas.
It’s hard to see any area where L.A. will have a distinct advantage, and Connecticut has shown no quarter to lesser teams this season. I believe they’re a strong bet to cover against the overmatched Sparks.
Sparks vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun -13.5
Dearica Hamby Under 17.5 points
Cameron Brink Under 8.5 points
While the Wings and the Sparks are wildly different teams, they share an instructive similarity when considering Tuesday’s matchup in that they both are mostly reliant on one player to generate offense.
Just as they did in holding Arike Ogunbowale to a season low 11 points on Saturday, the Sun can tilt the court against Dearica Hamby whenever she’s on the ball. Hamby thrives in the open court, but the Sun force opponents into the mud.
Brink is coming off her best game as a pro, but like most rookies has struggled against truly elite and physical competition. Curt Miller has also not been shy about cutting Brinks’ minutes in favor of his veterans in such cases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sparks vs Sun odds
Sparks vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Sparks vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Sparks vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +12.5 | Connecticut -12.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +626 | Connecticut -822
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 | Under 155.5
Sparks vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- Connecticut opened as commanding -13.5 point favorites for Tuesday’s tilt against the Sparks, and while early action on the underdog briefly saw it move to -12.5, the spread was as high as -14 as of Tuesday morning.
- L.A. has struggled on the road, going 1-4 ATS in their last five. The Sun are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
- Tuesday’s total opened as high as 157.5, but even that low number has encouraged a flock of betting on the Under, pushing it down to 153.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Under is 4-1 in the Sparks' last five road games, in large part because of their offensive futility.
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Sparks vs Sun trend
The Sun are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Sun.
Sparks vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-18-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Boston |
Sparks vs Sun latest injuries
Sparks: A. Stevens (Out).
Sun: M. Jefferson (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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