The French Open is down to its semifinals in the men’s and women’s draws at Roland Garros, highlighted by another chapter of Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal.
Covers Experts’ Tennis Insiders dissect the tennis odds for the French Open and give their predictions, picks and best bets for Friday’s semifinal showdowns.
MEN’S FRENCH OPEN SEMIFINALS
ROGER FEDER (+550) VS RAFAEL NADAL (-900)
Federer is enjoying a five-match winning streak against Nadal but crucially none of those matches came on clay, where Nadal leads 13-2 including a perfect 5-0 against the Swiss at Roland Garros.
Nadal’s success against Federer has been based around his lefty forehand targeting Federer’s backhand. The amount of vicious topspin and angle Nadal produces from his forehand gives him complete control of the baseline, pushing Federer outside of the court and giving him space to attack. Nadal has dominated players with one-handed backhands throughout his career. The ball bounces so high, it’s extremely uncomfortable for the one-hander to control, even if he has the core strength to do so.
Federer will need a serving masterclass to try and finish the points quickly and Nadal has opted to stay way behind the baseline when returning serve against opponents with huge weapons. If he can produce decent quality returns and keep Federer from the net or at least be in position to hit passing shots, Nadal will record an easy victory.
Federer will have to utilize his dropshot and variety to try and upset Nadal’s rhythm but none of these tactics have worked before in Paris. With this semifinal meeting a best-of five encounter, anything but a Nadal victory will be a huge shock.
NOVAK DJOKOVIC (-225) VS DOMINIC THIEM (+175)
Weather will play a huge part in this French Open semifinal matchup. Colder, damper conditions reduce the speed and bounce of the ball when it makes contact with the surface.
This favors Djokovic, who naturally has the stronger defense and court coverage while also benefitting from the ball bouncing directly into his hitting zone.
Thiem would prefer warmer conditions, where the ball is livelier, aiding his heavy topspin serve and groundstrokes. This would also unsettle Djokovic, who has to stretch outside of his comfort zone more often as the ball would be bouncing higher and would also upsets his footwork.
Thiem’s shot selection in the big moments has been his weakness in the past, so expect Djokovic to do enough to advance.
WOMEN’S FRENCH OPEN SEMIFINALS
JOHANNA KONTA (-138) VS MARKETA VONDROUSOVA (+110)
Vondrousova, being left-handed, will obviously look to use her loopy topspin forehand to create angles and force Konta to generate her own pace on the backhand side (lefty’s forehands curl naturally outwards on the right-hander’s backhand wing).
Konta’s movement on clay prior to 2019 was regarded as her main weakness but she’s played a lot of matches on the dirt this year and looks much more comfortable sliding and retrieving her court position. Her serve and aggression along with her use of the dropshot have been the key to her performances in Paris. Her ability to take the ball early and rush players combined with her variety has proven to be a winning formula.
Vondrousova will look to extend the rallies and force Konta into giving up the short ball. Expect her backhand to be targeted while Konta will look to establish her 1-2 punch style of serving then attacking with the next shot - a fascinating contrast in styles. Neither player has reached the final of a major but Konta has semifinal experience and this will be her third time in the final four. Expect another close contest between these two – as the French Open odds would indicate.
ASHLEIGH BARTY (-200) VS AMANDA ANISIMOVA (+162)
There are few players with either the skill set or the game style of Ashleigh Barty, so this will be new territory for Anisimova. She will need to take lessons from her compatriot and similarly-styled Madison Keys, who played to Barty’s strong backhand during Thursdays defeat.
Barty prefers to slice her backhand, which works brilliantly against the majority of players who enjoy a set rhythm and tempo in the longer exchanges. The slice neutralizes the point and also forces the opponent to generate their own pace from awkward positions with the lower bounce.
Anisimova – at 5-foot-11 (and still growing) - is a player who will receive plenty of attention in the coming months and the comparisons to Maria Sharapova are accurate. Her powerful ball striking and movement around the court are so natural. She showcased her skills against Simona Halep, including her ability to hit powerful winners of both wings while also utilizing the dropshot and showing great tennis IQ at such a young age.
How she’ll cope with adversity and tight moments in the semifinal is a big question: will she be able to problem solve Barty’s unique style? Lots of questions to be answered, expect a close encounter.
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