The Houston Astros got back in the World Series with a Game 3 victory and now look to knot the best-of-seven Fall Classic at 2-2 when they visit the Washington Nationals in Game 4 on Saturday. Jose Urquidy will start for the Astros before handing the ball off to the bullpen, while the Nationals counter with Patrick Corbin. From the first pitch to the final out, we break down the best ways to wager the odds for Game 4 of the World Series. **video
HOUSTON ASTROS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS (-110, 8.5 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
If you look at Corbin’s postseason ERA of 6.91, you’d say he’s struggled. But the Nationals have been putting him in some tough situations, throwing him back-and-forth between starting and relief appearances this October. But he’s still limiting opponents to a .214 batting average and has a crazy 28 strikeouts in 14.1 innings of postseason ball.
And Corbin’s numbers at home were excellent during the regular season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, while holding teams to a .199 batting average. With the Astros countering with a much less experienced pitcher, we like the Nationals to plate the first run in Game 4.
Pick: First Team to Score - Nationals (+115)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
Houston manager A.J. Hinch said that Urquidy will be the starter and will go as far as he can before turning it over to the bullpen. The 24-year-old is well-rested as he last pitched Oct. 19, a night in which he struck out five in 2 2/3 innings of relief and gave up one run and three hits against the New York Yankees in Game 6 of the ALCS.
However, he now has deal with a Nationals team that has a sound approach at the plateright now and is really making the Astros starters work and grind out innings. Washington is hitting .271 against right-handed pitching over the last 10 games and if they can get to Urquidy they’ll have a chance to build a lead against the lesser members of the Astros bullpen.
Pick: Nationals RL -0.5 First Five Innings (+120)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
One of the reasons the Astros have had trouble getting production this postseason is because Alex Bregman is in one of his worst slumps of the season. The Houston third baseman and AL MVP candidate is hitting just .208 this postseason and after an 0-5 performance in Game 3, is just 1-for-13 in the World Series. Until we see him make an adjustment at the plate, take him to go Under his total base number in Game 4.
Pick: Alex Bregman Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
FULL GAME TOTAL
So, this being a pseudo bullpen-day for the Astros plays into the Nationals favor. Houston’s bullpen has a 4.23 ERA and is surrendering a .261 batting average to opponents, despite some excellent numbers from their big three relievers in Roberto Osuna, Joe Smith and Will Harris. So, that just tells you they have not been good outside those three. The Nationals should tally some runs in this one.
And while we are expecting a solid performance from Corbin in this one, the Astros finally has a break though in Game 3 with runners in scoring position going 4-10 after hitting just .175 in in those situations in the postseason to that point. The Astros top three hitters are hot, particularly Jose Altuve, is 6-for-15 in the World Series and has seven multi-hit games this postseason.
The Astros should be able to contribute enough to send this one Over the number.
Pick: Over 8.5
FULL GAME SIDE
It seems like Dave Martinez was going to set his sights on Game 4 after going down 4-1 last night, not using any of his best relivers once Anibal Sanchez was out of the game. While, Hinch had to use all three of his best bullpen arms in Osuna, Smith and Harris.
On the other side, Corbin has been up-and-down as we have mentioned. But that definitely has to do with the situations he has been put in. And now he faces a Astros team that is hitting just .135 versus left-handed pitching over their last 10 postseason games and are striking out almost nine times per game over that span.
We are giving the edge to the team that is using an experienced, and frankly, very good starter. Bet the Nats to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Pick: Nationals -110
