Amanda Serrano vs. Stevie Morgan serves as the co-main event to Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry in the featured boxing betting attraction tonight, July 20, in Tampa, Florida.
Serrano is gearing up for a rematch with Katie Porter at junior welterweight, and it will be up to the heavy-handed Morgan to throw a wrench into those plans and score an upset for the ages.
Boxing odds have Serrano as a huge -3,000 favorite and Morgan as a +1,200 underdog. Here are my best free Serrano vs Morgan predictions from Amalie Arena.
Serrano vs Morgan prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Serrano ML (-3,000 at BetMGM) - My best bet
Serrano ML (-3,000 at BetMGM)
Fight analysis
Just as Paul is utilizing the unexpected delay of his originally planned fight with Mike Tyson to fit in a tune-up against Mike Perry, Serrano will do the same as she acclimates herself to the 140-pound division ahead of her anticipated rematch with Porter this fall. Morgan does seem overmatched against the living legend, though she has more going for her than the usual batch of opponents that Serrano goes through.
What Morgan brings to the ring, unlike Serrano's previous opponents, is respectable power. She has 13 knockouts in 14 victories and has a slight reach advantage, not to mention being physically bigger and better suited to the junior welterweight division. It isn't every day that Serrano is up against someone who can potentially match her power, and Morgan has good footwork and lateral movement, which has troubled Serrano in the past.
However, it doesn't change the fact that there is a huge gap in class between these two. Serrano is a seven-division champion who is only looking slightly past her prime against elite opposition, whereas Morgan is the same age at 35 and hasn't come anywhere near this level of competition in her entire career.
There are some solid qualities Morgan does bring into the fight, but overall, she won't be too competitive outside the first few rounds as Serrano warms up.
Morgan couldn't possibly be prepared for the full range of Serrano's skills. She'll get worn down by the counters and the body shots, which will drain her legs and force her to stand her ground. I wouldn't be surprised if Serrano allows Morgan to go a few rounds for the sake of getting the most out of this tune-up before the Porter rematch, and working on things she'll hope to implement in November.
Someone like Morgan could come along and shockingly upset Serrano, but she doesn't quite check all the boxes for me to give this a second look. Serrano is the pick.
Pick: Serrano ML (-3,000 at BetMGM)
Best best analysis
Morgan's size and her punching power should be able to buy her a few rounds, and Serrano might not want to rush in to aim for an early night and put the Porter fight at risk. The veteran will gauge Morgan's resolve with body shots and her sublime counter-punching, hoping to wear her down as the rounds go by. With that strategy in mind, I don't expect Serrano to pursue a knockout if she is comfortably winning on the outside.
At the same time, Serrano hasn’t scored a knockout in three years, and that was back at featherweight. All signs point to Serrano winning a lopsided decision and safely booking her date in November against Porter. For now, we have to stick with the moneyline, but Serrano by decision is also a prop to look out for.
Pick: Serrano ML (-3,000 at BetMGM)
Amanda Serrano vs Stevie Morgan odds
| Method of victory | Amanda Serrano | Stevie Morgan |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -5,000 | +1,500 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -163 | +2,500 |
| Win by points or decision | +120 | +4,000 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of 7-20.
Amanda Serrano vs Stevie Morgan tale of the tape
| Serrano | Morgan | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 65.5 inches | Reach | N/A |
| 46-2-1 (30 KO) | Record | 14-1 (13 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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