Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia is a middleweight title fight serving as the chief supporting bout to Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga on September 14.
Lara aims to continue his late-career resurgence with a high-profile clash against former two-division champion Garcia, who hopes to add another title to his collection before calling it a career.
My Lara vs. Garcia predictions don't expect the challenger to get his hands on the champs strap this Saturday.
Lara vs Garcia prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Lara ML (-225 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Lara ML (-225 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
For the majority of their careers, Lara and Garcia were always two divisions apart. This bout features two of the previous decade’s most notable fighters in a twilight clash that holds more weight for their legacies than it really should.
At his best, Danny Garcia was a strong junior welterweight champion and a formidable welterweight champion, but the 36-year-old is grossly overestimating his talents in hopes of winning a final world title.
Garcia last fought two years ago, moving up to junior middleweight to challenge a badly faded Jose Benavidez and looked ho-hum in victory. Instead of trying his luck against a deeper division, he stood idle and decided the aging Lara could be an easy target for one last shot at glory.
While Garcia has been comfortable sitting things out, the 41-year-old Lara is fighting like he still has something to prove. The technical sharpshooter has lost his legs and some of the upper body movement that made him one of the most dominant junior middleweights ever, but he’s compensated by finally sitting on his shots and becoming a more offensive fighter.
He’s won four of his last five fights by knockout, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest he could be the best fighter in an anemic division.
This bout will be contested between two fighters who prefer to counterpunch, and despite the close odds, Garcia is overmatched. He was a slow welterweight with a great left hook who's now coming off a long layoff, and he's been making moves to exit the game altogether. Lara is the better boxer, the bigger man, and he’s still performing at a high level, though past his prime.
Expect Lara to give Garcia a boxing lesson and not to be fazed by the moment or any of Garcia’s clubbing shots if they manage to land.
Best best analysis
Lara tends to fight boring, and this could easily turn into a staring contest with the two throwing single shots while angling to counter. However, Lara isn’t taking any chances and is putting more effort into his shots, which has led to his knockout streak.
Garcia has an iron chin though, and doesn’t fight in a wild manner where Lara could uncork him like that. This fight could end with Lara knocking Garcia out in the middle rounds with a big shot, or it could just as easily be a boring technical fight the former Olympian would still handily win.
It’s hard to say why Lara will have his arm raised, but he will.
Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia odds
| Method of victory | Erislandy Lara | Danny Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -270 | +205 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +230 | +850 |
| Win by points or decision | +125 | +330 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 9-14.
Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia tale of the tape
| Lara | Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 160 lbs | Weight | 160 lbs |
| 75.5 inches | Reach | 68.5 inches |
| 30-3-3 (18 KO) | Record | 37-3 (21 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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