The Land of the Rising Sun hosts Saturday’s showdown between Gennadiy Golovkin and Ryota Murata. And for boxing bettors, the sun will likely be rising if they want to watch and wager on this middleweight title fight in Japan, which is scheduled to start around 8 a.m. ET.
The boxing betting odds have Golovkin set as a -600 favorite for what will be the 40-year-old’s first fight since decimating Kamil Szeremeta back in December of 2020, due in part to the pandemic postponing plans for this unification bout.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for GGG vs. Murata on April 9.
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Odds for Gennadiy Golovkin vs Ryota Murata
| Favorite | Odds | Underdog | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gennadiy Golovkin | -575 | Ryota Murata | +400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on April 7, 2022.
Gennadiy Golovkin vs Ryota Murata betting predictions
Gennadiy Golovkin vs Ryota Murata tale of the tape
| Gennadiy Golovkin | Ryota Murota | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-feet |
| 70 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 41-1- (36 KO) | Record | 16-2 (13 KO) |
Gennadiy Glovkin vs Ryota Murata betting preview
It’s been a long time since either fight has been in the ring, with Murata actually dealing with an even longer hiatus after last fighting Steven Butler in December 2019. Both fighters have been in and out of training camps ever since.
The 36-year-old Murata is a tough matchup for GGG, boasting a notable height and reach advantage, owning a five-inch edge in arm length, which will come in handy defending against his opponent’s power shots. Murata isn’t the nimblest boxer on his feet and instead works behind his jab to disarm smaller foes.
The Japanese gold medalist is a volume puncher who looks to overwhelm his opponents with busy offense, quickly wearing them down and then picking his spots with power punches in the middle rounds, with 13 of his 16 victories coming via knockout.
Murata can’t afford to stand and trade blows with GGG early on, as the smaller Golovkin will chase down his competitor and look to get inside those lanky defenses and deliver impactful damage that will slow down Murata’s attack right out of the gate.
Golovkin is as tough as they come, with only one loss on his storied resume (he dropped a decision to Canelo Alvarez in September 2018) but is not immune to punishment. In his October 2019 bout with Sergiy Derevyanchenko, GGG was hurt after absorbing some crushing body blows.
If you go back to that bout, Derevyanchenko may have laid a bit of a blueprint for fighting GGG, working behind a quicker jab and following those shots with hard punches to the body (scoring 230 punches — the most GGG has ever taken). Murata is a much bigger opponent than Derevyanchenko, throws in bulk, and has a history of punishing body work as well, beating up Rob Brant down low before ending his July 2019 rematch in the second round.
Of course, a win for GGG would pave the way for the third installment of his rivalry with Canelo, who fights later this spring. But should Golovkin look past Murata and the home crowd in Japan on Saturday, boxing bettors may be denied that trilogy.
Gennadiy Golovkin vs Ryota Murata picks
Upset special
These two fighters are cut from a similar cloth in terms of their approach, each wanting to throw a high volume and be the aggressor. Golovkin has pressed early on in his last two fights — scoring Round 1 knockdowns — but should he not make those initial investments on Saturday, Murata has a great shot of winning.
Murata's not shifty and his stationary style could open him up for punishment, but his size and length could hold GGG at bay for the first few rounds. The last time Golovkin took on a quality longer fighter was Daniel Jacobs (73-inch reach) in May 2017 — the first time GGG had gone the distance. Jacobs checked GGG in the opening rounds and while he was knocked down in the fourth, he limited Golovkin to landing just 38% of his punches.
If GGG doesn’t benefit from his early assaults, his endurance and age will be tested. Murata has serious pop behind his jabs and landing a few of those will leave Golovkin open for body blows, which will compound any conditioning and stamina issues. The longer the fight goes, the better Murata’s chances get.
Murata may not have the track record of his opponent this weekend, with only 18 professional fights, but he’s battled on the big stage, winning gold at the 2012 London Games. He’s also proven to be mentally tough, working to avenge his two career losses (both via decision) with corner retirement and TKO victories.
Pick: Ryota Murata to win (+450 at FanDuel)
Going the distance
Murata knocking Golovkin out likely won’t happen, even with Murata ending 13 of his 18 pro fights early. The 40-year-old is a veteran of many a war inside the ring and he showed serious grit in the decision win over Derevyanchenko on top of his classics versus Canelo.
That said, GGG isn’t as dangerous as he once was. Since edging Jacobs in his first decision victory in 2017, Golovkin has watched four of his last seven bouts go to the judges’ cards. He’s dished out his fair share of punishment in those fights but has also eaten some stiff shots.
If you like GGG in Saturday’s fight, then your bets will likely depend on a fast start and quick ending. But as mentioned, if Golovkin lets this matchup creep into the sixth round or deeper, things swing in Murata’s favor. He’s had five of his 18 fights go the distance, with three wins and two losses being doled out by the judges.
I like the underdog and therefore my betting narrative sees this bout going deep. You could play the Over 8.5 rounds at -145 or Over 9.5 -110, but we’ll peg the plus-money proposition on the fight going the distance.
Pick: Fight Goes The Distance (+182 at FanDuel)
Taking a big swing
OK, put on your tinfoil hats for this one. What am I saying? It’s boxing: anything can happen.
If you’ve done any digging into the coverage for Saturday’s main event, half of those stories and features feel like an advertisement for the potential third installment of GGG vs. Canelo. Golovkin is signed at DAZN. As is Alvarez. So naturally, the promotion would love nothing more than a GGG victory to set the table for the trilogy.
However, things could get sticky if Murata shows up and takes this fight the distance. A loss for GGG could doom DAZN’s potential payday versus Canelo and sketchy judging going against Murata could sour the Japanese crowd.
If it boils down to a “too close to call” finish, the possibility of a draw looms very large. If you’re looking for a live long shot, it’s paying +2,000.
Pick: Draw (+2,000 at DraftKings)
