Jake Paul returns to the ring in his last stop before a landmark fight against Mike Tyson, facing off against MMA veteran and current BFKC middleweight champion Mike Perry in our featured boxing betting attraction this Saturday, July 20, at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.
“The Problem Child” may be a few months away from an improbable match with “Iron” Mike, and my Paul vs. Perry prediction likes him to keep the relentless Perry busy.
Boxing odds have Paul as a -337 favorite and Perry as a +333 underdog. Here are my best free boxing picks for Saturday’s showdown from Amalie Arena.
Paul vs Perry prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Paul ML (-337 at BetMGM) - My best bet
Paul by decision (+250 at DraftKings)
Fight Analysis
As we all know, Paul was set to face off against 58-year-old former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson until Tyson suffered a medical emergency that postponed the fight until November.
The show will go on, though, with former UFC fighter and current BKFC middleweight champion Perry stepping into the ring as another former MMA star for the influencer to pound on.
Perry's MMA career ended when he looked disinterested and overmatched against Daniel Rodriguez in 2020, ending his career on a 1-4 skid. Though Perry rejuvenated himself in the world of bare-knuckle boxing, he is no better a match for Paul than the geriatric Tyson.
There is the thought that the 33-year-old Perry will do better against Paul than the other MMA-turned-boxing foes he’s conquered, mainly due to his performance in a boxing-like combat league that still incorporates some MMA elements.
He’s scored wins over fellow transplanted MMA stars like Luke Rockhold and Michael Page, and Perry’s striking style has led to him finding more success here than he was finding in the UFC.
Being that this will be a boxing match, Paul’s superior technique and notable power will have Perry in trouble. In BKFC, Perry tends to hold his hands low and relies on his dependable chin to keep him in the fight, but he’s been bloodied and cut in a series of his bouts by fighters who won’t hit him as cleanly as Paul will.
Bare-knuckle fighting is close enough to boxing where Perry might make a good account of himself, but Paul’s straight shots and power will ensure he continues to give MMA fighters a rough welcome to the boxing world. Paul is the pick.
Pick: Paul moneyline (-337 at BetMGM)
Best Bet Analysis
Perry has only been knocked out twice in his professional fighting career. The first happened in a boxing match against Kenneth McNeil in 2015, then Geoff Neal stopped him in a UFC match in 2019. His charges are predictable and easy to time, but his relentlessness and solid chin mean that Paul will have to really want to get a stoppage as Perry won’t stop coming after him.
Paul is physically bigger and stronger than Perry, so it isn’t out of the question that he could level Perry with a huge shot early on, or Perry’s rushes get timed so that Paul lands a big right hand when he comes in. I do feel that Perry will go the rounds and push Paul with his pressure, but Paul will wear him down and land the more effective blows to secure a decision win.
Pick: Paul by decision (+250 at DraftKings)
Jake Paul vs Mike Perry odds
| Method of victory | Jake Paul | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -337 | +333 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -110 | +500 |
| Win by points or decision | +220 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +1,100 | +1,100 |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Jake Paul vs Mike Perry tale of the tape
| Paul | Perry | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 220 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 9-1 (6 KOs) | Record | 0-1 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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