The undefeated Joe Cordina hopes to earn himself a title as he faces off against junior lightweight champion Kenichi Ogawa in front of a supportive Wales crowd. Their bout is scheduled as part of a busy June 4 weekend and should shape up to be a good scrap.
The clash for Ogawa’s IBF title is scheduled for 12 rounds in the junior lightweight division on June 4 at the Motorpoint Arena in Cardiff. Hometown hero Cordina is taking a big step up in class with a title in his sights, and Ogawa is looking to show he’s not a one-and-done champ.
The challenger, Cordina is a narrow favorite at -175. Ogawa makes the first defense of his IBF title as an underdog at +140.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Cordina vs. Ogawa on June 4.
Joe Cordina vs Kenichi Ogawa odds
| Method of victory | Joe Cordina | Kenichi Ogawa |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -172 | +134 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +700 | +250 |
| Win by points or decision | -110 | +500 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of June 1, 2022.
Joe Cordina vs Kenichi Ogawa betting predictions
Picks made on June 1. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Joe Cordina vs Kenichi Ogawa betting preview
Ogawa made waves a few years ago when he defeated Tevin Farmer for a vacant title in 2017 only to see the win overturned after failing a post-fight drug test for performance enhancers. Since then, Ogawa bounced back and won the title, outpointing Azinga Fuzile last November. It was a punishing performance that saw Ogawa drop Fuzile three times to claim the title.
A relentless stalker with pesky power and commendable conditioning, Ogawa has spent the majority of his career in Japan. He is a determined puncher who carries his power throughout the fight and can persevere through adversity. He may not be fighting the absolute best in the division, but he’s far and away the most formidable challenge Cordina will face since turning pro in 2017.
Cordina started out the gates as a thudding puncher but with just 14 wins against regional opposition, it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that he’s ready for a title fight. What Cordina does have is an extensive amateur background and the benefit of fighting in front of a home crowd for his first title shot.
There’s also the sense of desperation for Cordina, who at 30 doesn’t have enough time left in his prime to wait out another title shot. That being said, he’s younger than Ogawa by four years and has a slight advantage in both height and reach.
Joe Cordina vs Kenichi Ogawa boxing prediction and best bet
Kenichi Ogawa to win
Looking at Cordina’s record and recent performances, he is getting the benefit of the doubt due to fighting in front of a friendly crowd. Ogawa has fought the better opposition and has spent more time refining his skills in the pro ranks. When Cordina turned pro, Ogawa defeated Farmer to briefly hold a title that same year.
Ogawa is an aggressive fighter who has to put on a strong effort, knowing that the crowd is working against him. Lucky for him, he’s stronger than his opponent, and he’s not facing a complex style that could obstruct his game plan. All things considered, Ogawa is going to fight like the challenger, having to win each round clearly to hopefully get a fair shake on the cards.
If Cordina has the goods, he can make this a close fight. With his fast hands and footwork, keeping Ogawa off balance and avoiding exchanges is his path to a world title. Eventually, though, Cordina will have to stand his ground because Ogawa won’t stop pressuring him.
A pick for Cordina would acknowledge that he’s beyond the regional level of opponents he’s faced his whole career to this point, and it’s debatable that this is the case. We’re picking the champion to retain his title on hostile territory because of that.
Prediction: Kenichi Ogawa to Win (+140 at DraftKings)
Best Bet
This could be a bridge too far for Cordina, and there is not enough we know about him to determine how good his chin or conditioning is for a world title fight. This is also the first 12-round fight of Cordina’s career, and it comes against an opponent who has consistent power.
Ogawa will have a chance to test Cordina’s resolve early. If Ogawa was able to rough up Farmer at times, he’ll have success against someone far less complicated in the conventional Cordina.
The hometown factor does come into play here, but we think the best bet for this fight happens to stick with Ogawa to win. A knockout isn’t out of the question, but we’ll see a difference in class that’ll end with him retaining his title.
Pick: Kenichi Ogawa to Win (+140 at DraftKings)
