Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor are headlining a historic event tonight, April 30.
This lightweight title fight features two of the best female boxers in the world in a true 50/50 bout but is the first-ever main event in Madison Square Garden featuring female fighters.
Seven-division world champion Serrano is the slightest of favorites at -130, while the undefeated Taylor comes in at +102 to successfully defend her title.
Find out who wins and how in our free boxing picks and predictions for Serrano vs. Taylor.
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano odds
| Method of victory | Katie Taylor | Amanda Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -130 | +104 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +800 | +420 |
| Win by points or decision | +155 | +160 |
| Draw | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of April 29, 2022.
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano betting predictions
Picks made on April 27. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some Taylor-Serrano betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Fight to end by KO/TKO BOOSTED to +300 (was +230) at FanDuel! Claim Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano betting preview
The weight of this fight as it pertains to women’s boxing cannot be ignored, and the good news is that this is fixing to be a competitive fight worthy of its historic narrative. Both fighters are going to have the spotlight on them this weekend and a genuinely electric crowd cheering them on. This fight is evenly matched on paper, with neither fighter coming in with a distinct advantage over the other.
If we had to discuss advantages, Serrano is younger, stronger, and has twice as many fights in the pro ranks as Taylor, while Katie has faster hands and is a sharper tactician. Again, it looks like a virtual dead heat when comparing them to each other. However, their recent performances suggest that Taylor may be slipping a bit.
She looked unusually flat last December against Firuza Sharipova and had to settle for two tight decision wins against Natasha Jonas and a rematch against Delfine Persoon. Taylor’s fast starts in both of those fights were practically erased by the halfway point when she started absorbing a lot of punishment, having to hang on to narrowly win those fights. Serrano’s strength and pressure might be more of an issue for Taylor now than when the fight was initially explored in 2020.
Puerto Rico’s Serrano hasn’t lost a fight in ten years and has separated herself from the pack. Her punching power and stalking style have carried her to becoming a nine-time world champion, and she looked solid in her victory against Miriam Gutierrez in December. Three of her last five wins have come inside the distance. She's a true power puncher in the sense that her power doesn’t taper off as the fight wears on.
How Serrano can offset Taylor’s speed will be her biggest obstacle to clear. Both fighters are going to come right at each other, and it should be clear from the get-go how competitive this fight will be. Even then, it’s a toss-up.
If Serrano draws Taylor into a war of attrition, the fight will go her way. Should Taylor manage to set the pace and keep Serrano outside, she will win. Of course, only one will be standing at fight’s end.
Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano picks
Serrano to win (-130 at FanDuel)
It won’t be easy, but Serrano is going to get the better of Taylor. ‘The Bray Bomber’ fights like she has more power than her record shows, and that doesn’t bode well for her against a puncher like Serrano. Her defensive shortcomings in recent fights suggest she’ll be catching big shots against the best puncher she’s faced in her career.
Taylor is naturally bigger, so she’ll try to crowd Serrano to smother her offense and prevent her from getting in a rhythm. Once she does get inside, she risks absorbing body shots that can wear her down. Her best chance might be to operate on the outside and keep Serrano off balance with a high-volume approach.
Serrano won’t be taking any backward steps here. She’ll be hunting Taylor from the beginning and might have an available target more often than not. As the bigger puncher, she’ll land the heavier shots that may score better with the judges than Taylor’s flurries.
Barring an unlikely early stoppage, the fight figures to be even by the middle rounds, but Taylor will start to wilt and her activity will drop as a result of Serrano’s pressure. Once Taylor starts moving around the ring more than standing her ground, Serrano can take over the fight and pull ahead late.
Serrano should have enough in the tank to withstand Taylor’s last-ditch efforts to steal the fight. We’re going with Serrano’s experience and heavier hands to carry her to victory.
Serrano to win by points or decision (+195 at FanDuel)
Though Serrano’s heavier hands should wear Taylor down, a knockout by either fighter is unlikely. We’ve seen Taylor get worked over in her more recent fights, often riding out the storm and punching her way out of trouble. For all the flush shots she took, not once did she look like she’d go down.
Unless something happens early, this is a distance fight that will be tightly contested. Should Serrano manage to get Taylor going, she may back off a bit to avoid Taylor drowning her out with activity. With Taylor only having six knockouts to her name so far, she is also planning on going the distance here.
Serrano might have trouble putting together enough shots to down Taylor, but Taylor’s style plays to Serrano’s strengths. We like Serrano to win this nip-and-tuck battle on points.
