Setting odds for this Saturday’s historic showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Oscar De La Hoya is a task that rivals placing a pointspread on the Super Bowl or pricing the field for the Kentucky Derby.
The big-name fighters, a reality TV show and the media circus fueled by endless trash talk has the entire sports world anxiously awaiting the outcome of this weekend’s junior middleweight title fight.
Mayweather, who is undefeated, has won titles in four different weight classes and is known for his mix of speed and power as well as his large-than-life persona. Oscar De La Hoya, the Golden Boy of boxing, has won titles in six different weight classes. He's best known for his power as well as his latest career as a boxing promoter. This fight is being held by his company, Golden Boy Promotions.
Most sportsbooks now have Mayweather (37-0, 24 KOs) listed as a -180 favorite and De La Hoya (38-4, 30 KOs) as a +155 underdog. But these numbers have bounced around more than Lindsay Lohan on a trampoline. According to boxing linesmaker Joey Oddessa, the opening numbers hit most sportsbooks as early as November with Mayweather at -200 and De La Hoya opening at +160.
These odds were set with the expectation that the betting public would jump on Mayweather early. It did, forcing the line to climb as high as -250. This held steady for many months, edging between -220 and -200 over the winter and into the spring.
“The intention was to get early action on Mayweather at a higher number which the bottom would fall out of on fight week,” says Oddessa, who sent out opening lines of -200 and -170 to sportsbooks.
In the past two weeks, most online sportsbooks have had a flood of money coming in on De La Hoya, forcing them to drop the line. This one-sided action coincides with the recent news out of the champion’s camp that his father, Floyd Mayweather Sr., who once trained De La Hoya, would no longer be involved with his son’s preparations for this fight.
Mayweather Sr. doesn’t have a strong relationship with his son or his brother Roger, who is training Mayweather Jr., and was disgusted by his son’s comments on their relationship and De La Hoya during a taping of the HBO series 24/7.
“This week the number has been as low as -170, but it has not broken -200 again at any places I do work with,” says Oddessa. “It would not surprise me to see this bout close below -155 at post, especially in Las Vegas.”
Sports.com gave the best price on the favorite as of early Saturday afternoon, offering Mayweather at -165 and De La Hoya at +135.
Oddsmakers predict the line to slightly favor Mayweather in the hours before Saturday’s 9 p.m. ET start. The money should be a 60/40 split between the two fighters and all the media hype and attention should bring in sports bettors that wouldn’t normally look to bet boxing.
“I think this bout is a lot closer than the line indicates,” says Oddessa. “Personally I think the +180’s (on De La Hoya) and higher were a bargain. But since the bout is generating two-way action, the openers were solid if the books stayed on top of the action.”
Books are also offering a total on the number of rounds in Saturday’s fight. The total is set at 11 ½ rounds. The over is priced at -240 while the under is tagged with at +190.
