Jessie Vargas vs. Liam Smith is scheduled for 12 rounds in the junior middleweight division tonight, April 30, as the chief supporting bout for Amanda Serrano vs. Katie Taylor. This bout features two former champions at the crossroads, with both needing a win to stay relevant.
Former junior middleweight champion Smith has gone 7-2 since a 2016 loss to Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, and is the favorite at -295. Former two-division champion Vargas has been inactive for two years and seeking his first win since 2019 as a +220 underdog.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Vargas vs. Smith on April 30.
Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas odds
| Method of victory | Liam Smith | Jessie Vargas |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -300 | +220 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +160 | +700 |
| Win by points or decision | +165 | +380 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of April 29, 2022.
Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas betting predictions
Picks made on April 27, 2022. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some Stevenson-Valdez betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas betting preview
The last time we saw Vargas in the ring was over two years ago in a losing effort against Mikey Garcia. The former two-division champ was outsmarted by the better boxer, but responded after a knockdown to turn a wipeout into a competitive defeat.
Before the Garcia fight, Vargas looked strong in a catchweight bout against Humberto Soto, and figures that the rest and competition at junior middleweight will benefit him here. He's taller than Smith and has faced the stronger opposition over the course of his career.
Smith is the betting favorite here, due to his activity and size advantage. This will be Vargas' first fight at the full division limit after starting off at junior welterweight, whereas Smith has fought his entire career in the division. Smith's defeats came against busy fighters like Alvarez and Jamie Munguia, and he took a close loss to Magomed Kurbanov in May 2021.
One thing about Vargas is that he is tough and has great conditioning. He can make adjustments as the fight wears on, and has good ring acumen in that he doesn’t leave himself open for big shots. He’s shared the ring with excellent fighters, though usually coming up short against them, and has a lot of heart.
While Smith is no slouch, he doesn’t have that extra gear needed to separate himself from the rest of the pack in the deep junior middleweight division. He can be outworked and is lacking a sense of urgency when the fight is slipping away. Smith is also a front-runner, starting off strong and fading over the course of the fight. Vargas is the opposite.
Because Smith isn’t a big puncher, nor does he fight with the type of physical style that could trouble Vargas, this is going to be a conventional battle. How competitive the fight gets depends on when Smith runs out of steam and when Vargas decides to step on the gas.
Liam Smith vs Jessie Vargas picks
Vargas to win (+220 at FanDuel)
Vargas has a 2-1-2 record over his last five fights. That being said, he didn’t look bad in his lone defeat to Garcia, and the argument is that he won the two draws versus Thomas Dulorme and Adrien Broner. Even so, he has been fighting solid opposition and making a good account of himself.
After the Alvarez loss, Smith rebounded on the regional circuit until losing to Munguia, then repeated the cycle before his more recent loss to Kurbanov. One constant in each of those fights was that Smith was outworked and faded late. Vargas has the better gas tank between them, will be fresh after his layoff, and is the superior technician.
A refreshed Vargas should have more energy at a weight class that better suits his 5’11 frame. Coupled with the knowledge that he’s performed admirably against better opposition than Smith makes him that much more attractive as a pick.
Smith may be bigger, but Vargas has a sturdy chin and good survival instincts to get him through rough patches. Also consider that Vargas will have a favorable crowd behind him, and the ingredients are all there for him to spring the upset.
Best bet: Fight to go the distance (-128 at FanDuel)
Vargas has never been confused as a big puncher, with 11 stoppages in 29 wins. He’s also fighting in his third weight class, so if he didn’t have KO power then, he isn’t going to have it now.
Vargas wins his fights with technique and activity, so this fight is going the rounds. Smith should remain competitive throughout, so the likelihood of either fighter getting stopped is relatively low.
This is a fight that can go either way, but we are going to find out who wins from the judge’s scorecards and not from a stoppage. Because of that, picking the fight to go the distance is a safe, reliable bet at -128.
Bonus bet: Vargas by decision (+380 at FanDuel)
One can get nearly double the payout betting on Vargas to win by decision at +380. Vargas has only two stoppages since 2016, so a points win is the logical outcome for him. Taking Vargas by decision is the pick to make as opposed to taking him straight up.
