Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz take their bad blood out of the octagon and into the boxing ring in one of our featured boxing attractions this Saturday, July 6.
Five years after Masvidal beat a bloodied Diaz to become the UFC’s inaugural “BMF” champion, these two look to settle the score once and for all under boxing rules.
Boxing odds have Masvidal as the -225 favorite and Diaz as a +200 underdog. Here are my best free Masvidal vs. Diaz predictions from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
Diaz vs Masvidal prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Masvidal ML (-225 at BetMGM) - My best bet
Masvidal ML (-225 at BetMGM)
Fight analysis
Masvidal defeated Diaz at UFC 244 when a cut stopped proceedings in the third round five years ago. That ended up being the last win of Masvidal’s MMA career as he dropped his next four fights in a row before stepping away in 2023 — transitioning to a combat sports promoter — but still retaining his fighting spirit.
Diaz would fight twice more, splitting a loss to Leon Edwards with a win over the badly faded Tony Ferguson to leave the UFC in 2022, though would be lured to the boxing ring in a one-sided loss to Jake Paul in 2023.
It’s hard to say what we can expect from these two when they were already past their primes in their first fight, but with this being a traditional boxing match, the feeling is Masvidal has the edge.
Diaz was a tricky striker who masked his attack with constant movement and firing from odd angles, but his path to victory was his relentless pace and the threat of outlasting his opponents to potentially submit them. Masvidal was the more striking-oriented fighter during his career, and that was clear when they fought the first time around.
Furthermore, Diaz has been apoplectic about being an athlete in general. For the Paul fight, he was grossly out of shape and used up all his venom during the press conferences, and he was soundly outboxed and knocked down. From what we’ve seen of Diaz leading into this rematch, it sounded more of the same, and he doesn’t look any more dialled in here than he did against Paul.
Masvidal had the upper hand when it was mostly a striking battle in their first fight, and he’s going to have more gas in the tank and fire in his belly against a fighter who has been mailing it in for the last five years or so. I’m picking Masvidal.
Pick: Masvidal moneyline (-225 at BetMGM)
Best best analysis
Diaz showed his trademark toughness in the Paul fight by absorbing several hard shots and taking it well over the course of their 10-round fight, even finding some success later in the bout. There’s no doubt Diaz can go the rounds, and with Masvidal not showing the type of striking power that was putting people out in the octagon, it’s safe to assume these two are fighting to a decision.
I just don’t see much in Diaz anymore besides him propping himself up for whatever potential paydays he can get at this stage of his career. He’s mentally checked out and going through the motions, and for him, getting into the ring might be all he wants to accomplish at this stage of his career.
The best bet for lack of available odds will be Masvidal straight up, but keep an eye open on props for the fight going the distance closer to fight night.
Pick: Masvidal moneyline (-225 at BetMGM)
Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal odds
| Method of victory | Nate Diaz | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +215 | -280 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +600 | +162 |
| Win by points or decision | +450 | +150 |
| Draw | +1,200 | +1,200 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of 7-4.
Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal tale of the tape
| Diaz | Masvidal | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 39 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 175 pounds | Weight | 175 pounds |
| 76 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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