Undefeated junior lightweight champions Shakur Stevenson and Oscar Valdez clash in a bout with pound-for-pound implications. Stevenson may be the future of the sport, but Valdez is more than ready to derail his promising career as he inches towards stardom himself.
Stevenson vs. Valdez is a junior lightweight title unification scheduled for tonight, April 30, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Both fighters will be putting their undefeated records on the line to unify the WBO and WBC junior lightweight titles.
The prodigious Stevenson has opened up a big favorite over the aggressive Valdez at -525. Those betting on will to overcome skill can get Valdez at +390 to pull off an upset, unifying the titles and throwing a wrench into the Stevenson machine.
We handicap the bout in our best boxing picks and predictions below.
Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez odds
| Method of victory | Shakur Stevenson | Oscar Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -600 | +370 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +260 | +500 |
| Win by points or decision | -140 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +2,000 | +1,400 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of April 29, 2022.
Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez betting predictions
Picks made on April 27, 2022. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis
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Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez betting preview
In this battle of undefeated champions, all eyes are on Stevenson as the prodigious boxer looks to notch another big win. At 17-0, Stevenson has won titles in two weight classes and is coming off an incredible performance where he picked apart Jamel Herring. In that fight, Stevenson looked to be two classes above Herring as he shut him down and stopped him in 10 rounds to relieve him of his WBO title.
Stevenson boxes with surgical precision and is stronger than his 50% KO ratio suggests. It isn’t much of a stretch to say that Stevenson is the most impressive junior lightweight we’ve seen since a young Floyd Mayweather Jr. As Mayweather did against Diego Corrales, Stevenson hopes to paint a masterpiece at the expense of the offensive-minded Valdez.
This fight will go according to how well Stevenson can handle Valdez’s relentless attack. When Valdez defeated Miguel Berchelt in February 2021, he put on a hideous beating against a respectable, though faded, champion. Then again, Valdez looked far from formidable versus the unheralded Robson Conceicao last September and has never been hard to hit.
Valdez has put out a few impressive beatings over the course of his career, but wins against Berchelt, Scott Quigg, and Miguel Marriaga came when those fighters were past their best. His defense is borderline acceptable, but even a bad defense can be its own weapon. As long as Valdez is on his feet, he is a threat to Stevenson.
With Stevenson, he can either stink out the joint with potshots and lateral movement or dazzle the crowd with his incredible hand speed. It’s not a surprise that bettors have made Stevenson a significant favorite. He can win in more ways than one.
Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez picks
Stevenson to win (-525 at DraftKings)
These two have no love lost for each other. Stevenson has been calling out Valdez for some time, and he’s been carrying himself like a fighter prepared to make a statement in preparation for their bout.
Valdez is going to pressure Stevenson from the beginning, but his lack of head movement and predictable offense will doom him. Even if Stevenson wanted to fight to Valdez’s strengths, he’s too fast to be pinned down for extended stretches of the fight. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Stevenson’s speed gets the better of Valdez on the inside, too.
Though Valdez is the bigger puncher, he’s a grinder who scores his big stoppages from accumulation as opposed to one-shot clubbing power. That power will amount to little if he’s getting touched up by combinations or frazzled by Stevenson’s razor-sharp jab.
Going back to the Mayweather/Corrales comparison, Corrales was battered by Mayweather’s superior speed. Like this fight, Mayweather wanted to put a hurting on Corrales, and the sentiment isn’t lost here.
Stevenson is the likely winner here because as tough as Valdez is, toughness alone won’t be enough to beat a fighter of Stevenson’s caliber. How Stevenson wins is another story.
Stevenson to win by KO/TKO (+260 at FanDuel)
While Valdez will be there for Stevenson to hit all night, his reliable chin and power will prevent Stevenson from taking too many risks. Once Stevenson establishes the pace of the fight and Valdez falls into a points deficit, it’ll be a cat and mouse game until the fight ends.
It’s easy to see Stevenson taking it easy after building a comfortable lead, but his dislike for Valdez along with the perceived skill gap makes a stoppage bet tantalizing. If Stevenson manages to cut Valdez before the third round, that drastically increases the possibility of a stoppage. Otherwise, Stevenson overwhelming an exhausted Valdez late in the fight is as likely to happen as a decision win.
Taking Stevenson on points is a safe pick at -135, but because we expect Stevenson to pursue a stoppage, we like that line even more.
