As the Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder trilogy nears the end, boxing fans will be hoping it's more "Return of the Jedi" than "The Rise of Skywalker" when the two heavyweights fight for a third and final time in Las Vegas.
After defeating Wilder by TKO in the second fight in February 2020, Fury is the -270 boxing betting favorite for fight three with Wilder (+230). So much has caused this story's conclusion to be pushed back but finally, we'll get the last chapter and progress in the heavyweight division.
Here are our best free boxing picks and predictions for Wilder vs. Fury 3 on October 9.
Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3 betting predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis
USA: Get 30/1 odds on either fighter at FanDuel — Bet $5, Win $150!. Claim Now.
Canada: Tyson Fury to win by KO, TKO, or Disqualification boosted to +200 at Betway. Claim Now.
Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3 betting preview
For fans of Fury, this trilogy is nonsense after the Gypsy King stopped Wilder in Round 7 of their last matchup, completely outboxing a one-dimensional opponent and disarming Wilder’s powerful right hand with his skittish technique and length.
Fury absorbed some heavy shots in the opening rounds of that fight and kept coming forward. He was also floored twice in the original bout but bounced back to do enough work to force a draw on the judge’s cards. That has Fury setting up shop inside Wilder’s head, considering the challenger has ended 41 of his 42 professional wins early.
Fury’s camp says its fighter is coming in heavier and more muscular than he did in the initial rematch, in which Fury weighed in at 273 pounds — 17 pounds heavier than the original bout back in December 2018. Trainer SugarHill Steward told reporters to expect Fury to tip the scales around 290 pounds in an effort to produce more power.
While Wilder’s training methods have been a little unorthodox, “The Bronze Bomber” looks fantastic physically in camp videos heading into October 9. He brought in new trainer and close friend (and former opponent) Malik Scott to help hone his boxing skills — another questionable move since Scott doesn’t have much of a track record as a trainer.
My concern comes from Wilder trying to change who he is as a fighter. He’s not going to outbox Fury no matter how much extra time the two have had to prep due to COVID cancellations. And if Fury can pick away at him and drag the fight into the later rounds, how patient will Wilder remain before throwing the wild overhand rights he defaulted to in their last meeting — and gassing out?
Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder 3 picks
Tyson Fury to win (-270)
The odds on Fury were as high as -330 at UK-based books earlier in the week, with boxing bettors attracted to the hard-hitting underdog.
The champ seems to be in a really good headspace heading into this bout and knows Wilder will come for his head, avoiding an overconfidence after two solid showings against the challenger.
Wilder’s sudden switch in trainers (and long list of excuses and accusations from his previous loss to Fury) all seem like distractions and deflections for a desperate fighter. Fury has taken Wilder’s best and got up — and besides those two knockdowns in their 2018 bout, the Gypsy King has won all but four of their total 19 rounds of action.
Tyson Fury via decision (+275)
Tyson Fury has plenty of respect and (a healthy fear) of Wilder’s right hand, which is why he won’t stick his neck out or press the action in this third meeting.
His lengthy jab and spastic head movement make it very tough for opponents to land any clean power punches, and Wilder could also be a bit gun shy after getting beaten up in their last match. We’ve seen aggressive fighters regress to passive punchers when coming off knockout losses (see: Joshua, Anthony) and that fear will be in the back of Wilder’s mind.
If Wilder isn’t as dangerous, Fury can pick him apart and eventually test the patience of the heavy-handed challenger, who could resort to some less-than-tactical punches in the later rounds and gas himself out like the previous two bouts.
Number of knockdowns: 1 (+160)
You can bet this exact knockdown prop or take the safer path with Under 1.5 knockdowns (-188), but I do expect one of these fighters to hit the canvas at some point Saturday night.
As mentioned, Wilder scored two knockdowns on Fury back in December 2018 while Fury returned the favor with knockdowns in Round 3 and Round 5 (a crushing body blow) of their 2020 rematch and had Wilder among the walking dead in the seventh before his corner threw in the towel.
As mentioned above, both fighters will be defensive given Wilder’s one-punch KO threat and Fury’s TKO win in 2020, but we’ll get at least one power pop that will send someone stumbling.
Where can I bet on Fury vs Wilder 3 odds?
Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what Fury vs. Wilder 3 odds are available.
