Week 4 in the CFL begins on Friday night with a showdown in the nation's capital between the Edmonton Elks and Ottawa Redblacks. These franchises have been the worst in the league over the last few years and are looking for their first win this season. Both will be switching things up at quarterback with the Redblacks giving the start to Tyrie Adams and the Elks going with Jarret Doege.
CFL betting lines opened with the Redblacks as 3.5-point home favorites before slimming to -2.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Elks vs. Redblacks on June 30.
Elks vs Redblacks best odds
Elks vs Redblacks picks and predictions
When I looked at this line earlier in the week, my lean was toward the Elks at +3.5. After all, both sides have looked equally bad to start this season, both are starting new quarterbacks, and the Redblacks haven't benefited from home-field advantage over the last few years. It seemed like taking the side with the points made sense.
However, with the line movement moving through that key number of 3 and breaking down the head-to-head matchups between these position groups, I actually prefer the Redblacks. Especially with Ottawa coming off a bye week and the Elks traveling across the country on just four days of rest.
I also think the public might be a tad too bullish on Doege. Sure, he can't be any worse than Taylor Cornelius, but his production against the Argos last week was a tad inflated. While he threw for 163 yards after replacing Cornelius in the third quarter, most of those yards came in garbage time and his highlight-reel 84-yard touchdown was a poor throw that was deflected by a defender into the hands of Edmonton receiver Vincent Forbes-Mombleau.
The biggest issue for Edmonton's offense has been its offensive line, which is bad news against an Ottawa stop unit that has been getting plenty of pressure. The Redblacks had six sacks and 10 tackles for loss in Week 1 and while those numbers dropped in Week 2 they still got plenty of pressure against the Stampeders. The Elks' offensive line has allowed a CFL-high 12 sacks this season and had a league-worst pass-blocking grade of 36.9 last week per PFF.
It also won't help Doege that his best wideout, reigning East Division MOP winner Geno Lewis, will miss this week due to a knee injury. Without Lewis and with his offensive line unable to buy him more time in the pocket, Doege won't be able to take advantage of a banged-up Redblacks secondary.
As for Adams, he has shown just as much potential as Doege after completing 9-of-16 passes for 122 yards and an interception after coming on in the second half in Week 2. Adams is also extremely mobile and should be able to take advantage of an Edmonton defense that is surrendering 149.3 yards per game on the ground.
The Redblacks haven't been running the ball enough this season (their running backs combined for just five carries in Week 2) but if they use a more balanced attack against the Elks they should have some success. Ultimately, I'll back the side that has had far more time to prepare with their second-string QB under center.
My best bet: Redblacks -2.5 (-107 at BetRegal)
Elks vs Redblacks same-game parlay
Redblacks -2.5 (-110)
Steven Dunbar Over 53.5 receiving yards (-114)
Quan Bray Over 48.5 receiving yards (-114)
While don't expect things to go well for either QB, I do think they'll be locked on to these wideouts and we're getting decent receiving yards totals on both of them.
Dunbar reeled in eight catches on 12 targets last week for 98 yards. Doege looked his way often after coming onto the field. With less than 20 minutes left in the contest, Doege targeted him four times and racked up 49 yards through the air. Dunbar could see even more passes his way this week with Lewis sidelined.
Bray has been Ottawa's most productive receiver so far this season. He had seven targets in Week 1 and ended up with 58 yards. He was again targeted seven times in Week 2 and hauled in four of those for 95 yards — including a 50-yard pass from Adams.
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Elks vs Redblacks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Redblacks opened as 3.5-point home favorites but the line quickly slimmed to -2.5. The Elks entered this season with many expecting them to take massive strides after going 4-14 in 2022.
Instead, they've gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread to begin this year and were clobbered at home by the Argos on Sunday, trailing 43-17 until late in the fourth quarter. They have averaged the second-fewest yards per play (5.29) in the league while allowing the second-most yards per play on defense (6.48).
The only team worse on offense this season has been the Redblacks who are coming off a bye after losing 26-15 to the Stampeders in Week 2. Ottawa is averaging just 4.64 yards per play while giving up 6.23.
With both offenses struggling to move the ball it's little surprise that the Over/Under has stayed steady at a low total of 42.5.
Elks vs Redblacks trend to know
The Elks are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Redblacks.
Elks vs Redblacks game info
| Location: | TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Friday, June 30, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Redblacks key injuries
Elks: Geno Lewis WR (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Ed Gainey DB (Out), Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out).
Redblacks: Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), DeVonte Dedmon WR (Out), Devonte Williams RB (Out), Cariel Brooks DB (Out), Sherrod Baltimore DB (Out), Shaq Evans WR (Out), Money Hunter DB (Out), Jovan Santos-Knox LB (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Tevaun Smith WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
