Week 8 in the CFL begins with a clash on Thursday night between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Montreal Alouettes.
Both teams are atop their respective divisions with a 5-1 record but the Als will likely be without star quarterback Cody Fajardo. My Roughriders vs. Alouettes predictions expect that to make a big difference.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this marquee matchup on July 25.
Roughriders vs Alouettes prediction
My best bet
Roughriders moneyline (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
These have been two of the best teams in the CFL this season and while they are both missing their starting quarterbacks, I have more faith in Saskatchewan Roughriders backup Shea Patterson.
A former third-team All-Big Ten selection at Michigan, Patterson has completed 64% of his passes for 539 yards in the last two games, while adding another 49 yards on the ground. He has proven that he can get the job done with the Riders winning in two of his three starts.
The Riders are also missing running back A.J. Ouellette, but Frankie Hickson is an explosive backup who impressed when he started four games in 2022. Hickson and Patterson should find running room against an Als defense that ranks second-last in rushing yards allowed per game (109) and yards allowed per carry (5.1).
The Montreal Alouettes should have a bigger drop-off from Fajardo to Caleb Evans. Fajardo had the second-best MOP odds before suffering a hamstring injury and he's listed as doubtful for Thursday. Evans is a mobile QB but he's a poor passer who throws way too many interceptions. That's bad news against a Saskatchewan stop unit that holds opponents to a CFL-low 3.7 yards per carry while also leading the league with 12 interceptions.
Evans replaced an injured Fajardo early in Week 6 and completed just 12 of 22 passes for 127 yards with a pair of interceptions in a 37-18 loss. Don't be surprised if the Als come up short at home with Evans under center again, with the moneyline price on the Riders tough to pass up.
Roughriders vs Alouettes same-game parlay (SGP)
Roughriders moneyline
Under 48.5
Shawn Bane Under 4.5 receptions
I love the value in backing the Riders on the ML but I'm also confident in the Under in this contest. Not only are both squads down to their backup QBs but they are missing other key players on offense. The Als are without their second and third-best receivers in Kaion Julien-Grant and Tyler Snead while the Riders are missing Ouellette at RB along with WR Kian Schaffer-Baker and All-Star right tackle Jermarcus Hardrick.
On the other side of the ball, these teams are 1-2 in the league in scoring defense, yards allowed per play, and opponent pass efficiency. When you combine those injury-depleted offenses with strong defenses, the Under looks like a clear play.
Bane's receptions total looks inflated here. The wideout exploded for 125 yards on five catches in Saskatchewan's season opener but hasn't logged more than 4.5 receptions in any game since. With Patterson at QB he had two catches on just two targets in Week 6 before hauling in two of three targets last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Roughriders vs Alouettes odds
Roughriders vs Alouettes live odds
Roughriders vs Alouettes opening odds
- Spread: Saskatchewan +1.5 | Montreal -1.5
- Moneyline: Saskatchewan +100 | Montreal -120
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Roughriders vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
- With the Als fresh off the bye and at home, early money came in on them shifting their line past that key number of 3. However, buyback on Wednesday slimmed the spread to -3.
- The total seems too high for a game between terrific defenses and banged-up offenses, but the Over is 15-2 in Saskatchewan's last 17 contests.
- The Riders lead the league with 19 takeaways while the Als are are second with 14.
- Montreal has given up a league-high nine big play returns while Saskatchewan have racked up six big play returns on special teams.
Roughriders vs Alouettes trend
The Riders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Find more CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Alouettes.
Roughriders vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-25-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Roughriders vs Alouettes key injuries
Roughriders: A.J. Ouellette RB (Out), Kian Schaffer-Baker WR (Out), Jermarcus Hardrick OT (Out), Trevor Harris QB (Out), Christian Albright DE (Out), Charbel Dabire DT (Out).
Alouettes: Cody Fajardo QB (Doubtful), Kaion Julien-Grant (Doubtful), Tyrell Richards LB (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out), Tyler Snead SB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Roughriders vs Alouettes weather
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