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Currently Back Testing A New System

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Posted: #201
Excuse my ignorance if this has already been covered in your thread but all ten selections are road teams......just sayin
 
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Posted: #202
I noticed in this thread guys looking for books with 7pt teasers
5Dimes has 3 team ties reduce at -115 and 3 team ties lose at -110

3T  7.5 pt ties lose at -120  reduce at -128
 
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Posted: #203
Sorry im late to the party is the SGS1 games without teasers? and is the MS1 games with 7 point teasers? 

In others words do we take SGS1 we take straight without 7 point teaser? and ms1 we take the 7 point teaser?
 
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Posted: #204
yep
 
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Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by rookie115:

yep

sorry just want to make sure. MS1 plays are straight bets no teasers and SGS1 bets are only 7 pt teasers?
 
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Posted: #206
 MS1 = 7pt teasers 

SGS1 = straight plays. 
 
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Posted: #207
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Day 4 of the SGS1 and we have a whopping 10 selections...and its possible there may be one or two more when the late lines get put up on the 5 or 6 games that do not have lines yet at my book. The record stands at 11-3 when action starts Saturday.


Baylor +3.5
Buffalo +3
Temple +1
Florida St. +1
South Carolina +3
Syracuse +2.5
Alabama +4
Texas St. +1.5
SMU +1
UC Riverside +3.5

An interesting side note about that Colgate game a couple of nights back.  I went back and looked at it again and found that it was a very close borderline selection of the system.  Basically, the line move from PK to +1 made it a late day selection but based on the early line it would not have been a selection.  

We only have 2 other losses for the system other than the Colgate loss and both of those losses have been games lined at +3.5. The Saturday selection list has two games at +3.5.

Baylor +3.5
UC Riverside +3.5

Hmm...May not mean anything at all...just something to keep an eye on.

Again, I must give my standard disclaimer regarding the SGS1.  It has not been back tested and only has 14 total selections sampled to this point.  Play them at your own risk.  I will freely admit they are looking very good but its such a small sample it could be tricking us.  I would hate for anyone to get tagged hard when playing them...so just be smart.



What if the line moves to 4 throughout the day? Do we treat it the same way? Or do we treat the games at 3.5 til the game starts? Sorry for the questions
 
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Posted: #208
If we can just pick one site that we all can use for the opening line and don't even look at line movement , that may be the way to go . I just throwing some suggestions out there . Even if the line moves , some sites do not pick up the line movement right away which can hurt the closing number in the system games .. 
 
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Posted: #209
On the MS1 system you counted the brown game as a win. My question is how did you play it with out other teams to tease it, or were you just stating that it was a winner even tho we weren't able to tease it with anything. Thanks for all the hard work you do.
 
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Posted: #210
????
 
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Posted: #211
 
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Posted: #212
Thanks for your hard works Smack GL
 
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Posted: #213
Wow! That's a ton of games...108 looks like but might have to recheck the total number...hurrying to get these MS1 picks out...

St. Bonnaventure +10
Ball St. +13.5
TCU +11.5
South Alabama +19
FIU +14
San Jose St. +17
Auburn +11.5
UNC Wilmington +9.5
California +10.5
Florida +15
SE Missouri St. (SEMO) +12
Furman +12.5
Brown +7
South Utah +11.5
Idaho St. +9

More SGS1 picks coming but had to get these out first.

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Posted: #214
Found 3 more SGS1 selections with the extra games

Harvard +4.5
Oral Roberts +2
Belmont +1.5

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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by D-dubb:

On the MS1 system you counted the brown game as a win. My question is how did you play it with out other teams to tease it, or were you just stating that it was a winner even tho we weren't able to tease it with anything. Thanks for all the hard work you do.

On any given day, the number of total lined games available will affect how many selections the system can put out.  On that day, there was only one play the system found...Brown +9 was the straight line.  Since the MS1 is a 7 point teaser system (primarily) we SHOULD have added 7 points to get a selection of Brown +16.

lol..just realized I added that incorrectly in my first post of the selection but it doesn't matter as Brown took care of business by a large margin.

When we have a day with only one or two selections, I usually will advise some other selections that are NOT the MS1 system selections to add in to make a 3 team teaser.  Or you may have some games from other cappers you like that you can add in.

The Brown game was an official selection and gets added to the official tally for the MS1 system even though there were not 2 other selections to make a full MS1 teaser.

Hope this helps.

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Posted: #216
Seems like we have a lot of questions coming up.  Of course, if our new guests would take the time to read through the thread I am pretty sure all of their questions would be answered.  But, I can understand that is a lot of reading...so I am going to summarize the two systems briefly here.

The MS1 is specifically a 7 point teaser system.  This system was back tested to over 200 games prior to being posted and tracked. Currently the record is at 25-6-3 before today's action.  The lines will reflect 7 points added to the straight line bet number.  I would not advise you to play these games as straight plays although some have done so.  One other interesting fact is that the system is 24-7-3 on 4 point teasers.

The SGS1 is a "straight game selector" meaning that it selects for straight plays.  Now, of course, anytime you say a game is going to win straight up, it would get a HUGE help if you teased it so these certainly could be teased by 4 points, 6 points, 7 points, 8 points...whatever you want to do with them.  The system has started out quite well, however, I do want to EMPHASIZE again that it has NOT been back tested.  All we have to go on are is the 11-3 record that it has produced in 3 days of sampling.

As far as line movement and how it affects the two systems, I have been studying that and may soon add in a line movement factor (LMF) to the systems as a criterion to help refine and tweak them both to produce more winners.  It's a very tricky thing to do so and I have not totally figured out to use it in a statistical way that would be helpful.  Any suggestions are appreciated.

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Posted: #217
Wanted to get all the SGS1 selections in one spot...Huge card of 13 games...

Baylor +3.5
Buffalo +3
Temple +1
Florida St. +1
South Carolina +3
Syracuse +2.5
Alabama +4
Texas St. +1.5
SMU +1
UC Riverside +3.5
Harvard +4.5
Oral Roberts +2
Belmont +1.5

This card today will nearly double our total selections from 14 to 27. As I always say, we need 100 selections before we can even really start to say that the statistics have some significance.  I am hoping that by sometime in early March we will be over that level and looking good on the numbers.

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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by rookie115:


What if the line moves to 4 throughout the day? Do we treat it the same way? Or do we treat the games at 3.5 til the game starts? Sorry for the questions

A very valid question indeed...

Obviously, we need to look at why the line moved.  In the Iona game yesterday, a key player was out and it drove Iona down from -12 to -10 right before game time and they ended up winning by 4.  Had a huge affect on the game outcome.

But if there is no obvious reason for the line movement, its much more unclear as to how to adjust the game selection...unless, we can find a pattern in the numbers that gives us a statistical advantage.  Huge amount of work there to back test and analyze all of the line moves from open to close and then determine whether that affected the outcome of the game based on closing vs opening line.

And then, after doing all that work...say you find out that over 100 back tested games where the line moved 1 point or more, that it changed the outcome of only 10% of the games.  Pretty much worthless if that's the case...not saying that would be the findings, but I suspect the impact would be less than most might think.

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Posted: #219
Happen to know who ur teasin outta the 15 Smack?
 
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by JDollazz:

Happen to know who ur teasin outta the 15 Smack?

LOL...why yes, I do happen to know...been very crazy today trying to get all the analysis done and the picks in.  Flat out forgot my personal plays.

Anytime there is a number (like 15) that is divisible by 3, I simply go down the list and make 3 teamers out of them.  In this case, I have 5 3 teamers all flat bet at 2 units each.  I have mentioned this before but the thread it getting pretty long now so its good to reiterate it.

If there happened to be a number where there were 1 or 2 teams leftover, I usually take a look at the SGS1 system and pick what I think the best ones are there or take some off of Ryno23's thread selections as I like his system a lot.

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Posted: #221
Much appreciated! Thanx for all the hard work man!
 
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Posted: #222
JDollazz     
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Posted: #223
Nice work SMACK!
 
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Posted: #224
thank you bud .. nice work .. 
 
 
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Posted: #225
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Found 3 more SGS1 selections with the extra games

Harvard +4.5
Oral Roberts +2
Belmont +1.5

  Your line on Harvard is off bro ... still a play at + 1 1/2 ???Thx 
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