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Final Four Hoops

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Posted: #51
GL, love the Lou play
 
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Posted: #52
Louisville plays defense and contests shots, while UK is constantly driving to the hoop.  This is going to be a free-throw fest like the last two UK games, unless the officials decide to let up.

I'm rooting for Louisville, but don't know if 8.5 is enough, considering how well the 'cats are playing and how tight the refs have been calling this tournament. Thanks as always for the insight, though. Great write-ups and analysis.
 
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Posted: #53
NROPP brought me back from the depths of hell debtwise.....im all over Louisville after this write up.....the best analysis ive ever seen.....but nropp i could use some help with the games tonight.....any insights or leans would be greatly appreciated...
 
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Posted: #54
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



I was leaning Kentucky until I read your post. Biggest mush on covers. You cant read lines for shit and constantly out think yourself.

If LVille sticks around with their defense, are you leaning the U137? I dont htink they can put up 70 on Kentucky.

Great writeup Ropp.

I think the total's dead on, smack-dab gonna be close. Think we'll see a fast pace early, and a slow pace late. Cal eats up clock against a zone.
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:

Good luck nropp...I think Louisville will have a great shot at the win...imo this davis kid is too small for the nba game at this point...he'd be a tyler hansborough in the pros unless he puts on some muscle...although he could fill the tayshon prince roll on a shit team like pistons...btw nropp I've seen u post in the NBA forum once before...do u follow pro ball? And will you be focusing your attention there once the tournament is over?

Focus goes to baseball when this is over. Rarely play anything in the NBA, maybe a few a week. Strictly a situational guy in the Pro's, and haven't seen all that great of situations as of late (was one the other night when Pacers played Milwaukee, both teams were on a b2b2b = no defense, fast pace, and 229 total points). Haven't gotten much opportunities this year with the shortened season. Spots that I like anyway.

GL
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by catsby5:

Vary bewteen 5-8 points till crunch time, then the fouls begin and this patino team can't shoot from beyond the arc to save their lives ( the worst patino has ever had)... so this game could easily stretch itself to 12-15 ... I know I'm a homer but I have watched every game this year... the biggest factor is what defense the cards come out w... their man to man will get ate up... and their zone will get exploited by miller and lamb... I assume the soft zone will give uk fits, just not sure if they can maintain the pressure throughout the whole game given the ability of both teams to run and pressure the ball. I think these teams have a lot of the same fundamentals, w UK having the edge at every position on the court... look for Davis to show his colors... he takes the 5th most shots on this team... I believe he takes more shots and shows why he is the national player of the year

Few things here. First, this zone is not soft and I have no idea where you get that idea. They don't allow teams to sit out there and free willy from the three-point line. At the same time, Kentucky's a team that isn't going to sit out there and shoot three's all night. 

Second, the whole theory on Kentucky's pressure can be found on page one. These two team's styles are similar to the extent that they both block shots, and that's about it. The "pressure" you have seen from Kentucky on the year if you have watched every game really isn't pressure if they aren't forcing teams into turnovers. It's not "pressure". It's size. When a team is taller than the other, it looks like pressure, but it's not. 

Third, if Davis is to take more shots, I welcome it as Dieng is right behind him ranked nationally in block percentage. If Davis is taking more shots against this zone, then Louisville will be doing something right in regards to it's pressure on the perimeter. 

And fourth, this idea that all five spots on the court is a bit false. The Siva/Teague match-up is much closer than you (and probably most) can see. (and the guy over <------ there in the avatar is currently ranked 2nd in the country in steal %, only guy ahead of him is Briante). And the match-ups really don't hold much weight in a game where one team is playing zone.

GL
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by wtfe:



Well just to be clear, I ML'ed VCU (and played them bigger on the pts) all the way to the Final Four last year. Probably my biggest plays last year...just like Kentucky has been this tournament (which really screwed me in the first round, but has been cash since).

 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by yesterday:

Just have to say, great work. 

These last two games...you could write up  another 5K words on. 

And though I lean your way, for all the homework (been there and do that) I just wonder about the refs.  How much will that whistle blow, and the thing you can't cap (like turnovers in football)  is those refs and how tight they call the game or let them play, 1st half, last ten minutes, etc.  Last couple of games they are calling touch fowls early and often and to the end.  Like an umpire in MLB, sure would like to study the refs here.  I'd like to see a few paragraphs on those stats and what it does to the totals and favs. And those points...I've played them this tourney, and been really burned by 1/2 a point, a few times when the team down a few "extends the game" by fouling with 3 minutes left, it just throws the "points" play out the window, because there is no tomorrow and the team down would risk losing by 15 than not win at all. I think this game comes down to who will win.  As much as I want to play this one, I might just stay away.  Sometimes cash in the pocket is a win. What I do take from your read is the under looks like the best play of all.  But then, that last 3 minutes spent mostly at the foul line, if that's how it plays out, will spoil that too. 

Would like to hear your comments on how the refs play into this one. 

Just wanted to say much respect for your write up and best of fortunes to you. 

Not gonna lie, it's going to be a big factor. Both teams attack, both teams go for the blocked shot. I just don't see 51 fouls called and 70 FT attempts again. Could it happen? Sure, as I stated both play a game where when they meet we could see a ton of fouls. Ultimately though, I just don't see it playing a big factor in the line.
 
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Posted: #60

Great read     and great anaylsis.....

BUT, I am going point out two facts that you didn't mention about the first match-up:

-> kentucky twice build double digit leads in that game... in the first half, they were up by 16.... louisville valiantly fought back to tie the game.... well done.... but kentucky once again blew it open with a double digit lead with 4 minutes left..... the lead was up to 13 points, 69-56 and louisville hit 2 meaningless 3 pointers in the last 5 seconds of the game to make the final score 69-62.  The seven point win is decieving!  Kentucky was in no risk of losing that game, and twice ran the lead up to double digits.....  there is only so many times a team can comeback from a double digit deficit..... Its not like that was a tight game and kentucky pulled away in the last 2 minutes to turn a 3 point lead into a 7 point lead with freethrows....

-> the freethrow disparity of 43 to 27 is not an accident.  Kentucky consistently shoots more freethrows than their opponent.  you can't write this off as an anomoly, and have to expect it again....

 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Great read     and great anaylsis.....

BUT, I am going point out two facts that you didn't mention about the first match-up:

-> kentucky twice build double digit leads in that game... in the first half, they were up by 16.... louisville valiantly fought back to tie the game.... well done.... but kentucky once again blew it open with a double digit lead with 4 minutes left..... the lead was up to 13 points, 69-56 and louisville hit 2 meaningless 3 pointers in the last 5 seconds of the game to make the final score 69-62.  The seven point win is decieving!  Kentucky was in no risk of losing that game, and twice ran the lead up to double digits.....  there is only so many times a team can comeback from a double digit deficit..... Its not like that was a tight game and kentucky pulled away in the last 2 minutes to turn a 3 point lead into a 7 point lead with freethrows....

-> the freethrow disparity of 43 to 27 is not an accident.  Kentucky consistently shoots more freethrows than their opponent.  you can't write this off as an anomoly, and have to expect it again....


Kentucky was in no risk to lose the game yet they were tied right before the half? Was Kansas in any risk the other night when they won by 13, yet trailed late? 

I can agree with Kentucky consistently shooting more free throws than their opponent (this is a topic for another day but is this b/c they attack more on offense than use pressure on defense, or a general statement of how soft the defense is out front?), but so does Louisville.

GL
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:




Lol.

When I see teams consistently lined as dogs and then they win outright, I play them. I have no feelings one way or another about most teams, I just play hot teams and if they burn me I learned my lesson. Last year it was Butler and VCU, this year it has been Mercer and UMass.

It's kinda funny you'd bring up VCU vs Kansas since that is nothing like this game. Louisville isn't a Cinderella playing out of their mind. They are a talented team playing at a high level.

When I referred to Kentucky players being in the NBA next year, I meant that in the way that the Florida B2B championship teams had talent, and that UNC team who dominated Michigan St. in the championship a few years ago. As you watched them throughout the tournament it became pretty clear they were gonna win the national championship. They were loaded with NBA talent and, looking back, it was no surprise they beat everyone in the tournament by more than 10. And true to form, that's Kentucky this year.

For Louisville to win this game, much less cover, they will have to play their best game of the year; and UK will have to play like they did in the SEC tournament.
 
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Posted: #63

@ nropp11 - I am not here to get into a semantically argument about what "not at risk to lose the game" means .....

... My point was that it was decisive victory, as Kentucky was up double digits with 4 mintues left, and a final score of 69-56 is more indicative of the type of game it was once you cut off two meaningless 3-pointers in that were literally in the last 5 seconds of the game, and louisville +10 got a very lucky backdoor cover that night....... this is a very different situation than if it was a very tight game (< 5 points) going into the last 2 minutes and kentucky stretches the lead to 7 on freethrows, which is the impression that one would get based on your write-up without having actually watched that game....

 

anyway, i am not going to touch this game on the spread, I have a future on kentucky to win it all, so i just want them to come through on the moneyline..... good luck with the spread!

 
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Posted: #64
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Kentucky was in no risk to lose the game yet they were tied right before the half?


Anthony Davis sat out the last 10 minutes of the half. fyi
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Kentucky was in no risk to lose the game yet they were tied right before the half?


Anthony Davis sat out the last 10 minutes of the half. fyi
 
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Posted: #67
It seems a difficult proposition to back a cards team that has real difficulties scoring sometimes against a team that has the capability to explode at any moment and make multiple 8-0 and 10-0 type runs.

Cards could be in this thing the entire time only to see Cats pop off a 12-2 run in the 2nd half and them bam it's over and Cards lose big.

Florida had them blown out and just shut down their offense and let the cards chip away.  It was bizarre watching them go away from what worked all game in the last minutes.  I find it tough to believe if Kentucky was in that situation that they would get away from their game.

Plenty of time to think about this one more.  And you've certainly given us a wealth of information to pour over and ponder.   Who knows I could switch sides after I think about this one some more.
 
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Posted: #68

Love the Play my freind. My line is not out yet so lucky you. I'll be sure to check out the Louie game. Good Luck

Turtle

 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by wtfe:



Lol.

When I see teams consistently lined as dogs and then they win outright, I play them. I have no feelings one way or another about most teams, I just play hot teams and if they burn me I learned my lesson. Last year it was Butler and VCU, this year it has been Mercer and UMass.

It's kinda funny you'd bring up VCU vs Kansas since that is nothing like this game. Louisville isn't a Cinderella playing out of their mind. They are a talented team playing at a high level.

When I referred to Kentucky players being in the NBA next year, I meant that in the way that the Florida B2B championship teams had talent, and that UNC team who dominated Michigan St. in the championship a few years ago. As you watched them throughout the tournament it became pretty clear they were gonna win the national championship. They were loaded with NBA talent and, looking back, it was no surprise they beat everyone in the tournament by more than 10. And true to form, that's Kentucky this year.

For Louisville to win this game, much less cover, they will have to play their best game of the year; and UK will have to play like they did in the SEC tournament.

Kentucky might be equally talented, but you're comparing a team that's ranked 340th in terms of experience against the Florida and UNC title teams who all ranked top 100 in that same category.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by BET-MAN:

 

COPY AND PASTE


You mean type, copy, and paste

Great write up. Hope you're right.  
 
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Posted: #72
Lou +8.5...It will be a very close game
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

@ nropp11 - I am not here to get into a semantically argument about what "not at risk to lose the game" means .....

... My point was that it was decisive victory, as Kentucky was up double digits with 4 mintues left, and a final score of 69-56 is more indicative of the type of game it was once you cut off two meaningless 3-pointers in that were literally in the last 5 seconds of the game, and louisville +10 got a very lucky backdoor cover that night....... this is a very different situation than if it was a very tight game (< 5 points) going into the last 2 minutes and kentucky stretches the lead to 7 on freethrows, which is the impression that one would get based on your write-up without having actually watched that game....

 

anyway, i am not going to touch this game on the spread, I have a future on kentucky to win it all, so i just want them to come through on the moneyline..... good luck with the spread!

 

 Spot on points and exactly what I was thinking. This game could be close with 5 to 7 minutes left, but I think by then KY will have made whatever adjustments they need to against the press and possibly even disrupting Lville with their own. The free throws at the end should be crucial and I see the Wildcats winning about by the same margin as they did  against Baylor.

 
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Posted: #74
louisville=2011 uconn team...just a gut feeling...
 
 
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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by QBUN:

louisville=2011 uconn team...just a gut feeling...

You never know I guess, but UCONN had something that this U of L  team does not. Kemba Walker. The guy carried that team on his back.

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