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ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 12:24 PM ET #101

Can't get that 2009 TarHole team out of my head. They streamrolled through everyone in the tourney that year and I keep seeing this UK team doing the same...

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hammer22

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 9033

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 12:26 PM ET #102

You are a great capper and i respect your write ups and analysis but I think you are over analyzing this game way to much. At this point in the tournament you just cannot bet against this Kentucky team. They have 6 guys that will most likely be 1st round picks in the NBA draft next year. If Calapari can't win this year with this squad then he will never win a championship.

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banshee826

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2003

Posts: 584

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 12:47 PM ET #103

[Quote: Originally Posted by hammer22] You are a great capper and i respect your write ups and analysis but I think you are over analyzing this game way to much. /Quote]

Its called paralysis by analysis - the numbers can be spun to support your side..sometimes neil's write ups are so thoughtful an chock full of stats and support that he overlooks something so simple like who is the better team...the cream doesn't always rise.....sometimes the right team wins but doesn't cover...........I get that..

but sometimes its better to follow the KISS philosophy...Keep It Simple Stupid....

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getcarter

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 422

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 12:54 PM ET #104

Awesome write-up, as usual! Although, my only issue is the hatred between them.

The coaches...yes, the fans...definitely, the players...? They are told to hate them. These UK players are one and done and have no concept of "rivalry" for them personally with Louisville. Miller being a KY kid and played 4 years, he could have a huge game.. In terms of impact, does it play into their effort, passion and performance? Hard to say...

Being a UK and Louisville fan, I love these games when they play, especially here, regardless of the outcome, I have a fav school in the finals....

This game has two scenarios...it will be an easy blow out for UK or UL wins outright. If it is close, I feel Louisville handles the pressure for a major upset.

My only bet today is: Parlay UK 1st H and OSU 1st H

Louisville tends to be a 2nd half team and Kansas seems to start slow every game

Enjoy the games and BOL to all!

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getcarter

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 422

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 1:08 PM ET #105

btw...this UK team is a different team than earlier in the year.

They are hitting on all cylinders....ask the Hoosiers.

Louisville is finally healthy and also hitting on all cylinders, so to cap this game on respective histories can be misleading.

adding: Pleaser $25 yields $412.50

uk-14.5
baylor -13
uconn-7.5

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Hoyasaxa

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 5088

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 1:21 PM ET #106

I have read all the posts and in the end the 2) things that are intellectual are A) Coaching with prep time and B) revenge an-these are the current issues that are game changers-UK posters have to respect these and these are at the heart of Nropp's thoughts...

Add a third-Pressure-who by far has the most? Kentucky has to win the tournament to please their fans and they most suredly can't lose on the way to their hated in-state rival. Louisville has nothing, I REPEAT nothing to lose-playing with house money, and KY has a young team. LeBron James come to mind?

in the end smart money looks for value and where is the value on KY now???? I'm stepping up my amount on this one...I wish I bought more Apple at 90.00 3 years ago but learn from history...

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33024

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 1:26 PM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by Rauchy76:

If Gary Williams says Kentucky can beat the Wizards

, then I'm all in on the Cats

I hope you are kidding as only the dumbest fucking person in the world would believe that.

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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tmurda666

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 1244

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 1:29 PM ET #108

im thinking about putting kentucky & over / kansas moneyline & over in a parlay... any thoughts???

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dyamarik

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 9377

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 1:36 PM ET #109

Quote Originally Posted by tmurda666:

im thinking about putting kentucky & over / kansas moneyline & over in a parlay... any thoughts???

Just 1 thought - if you pick 3 out of 4 correct, you still lose...

Bet 'em SU - don't fuck with parlays...

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 2:08 PM ET #110

Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:

Prep Time

Revenge

Defensive Pressure/Scheme

That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.

I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.

Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".

In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.

GL

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Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:

Prep Time

Revenge

Defensive Pressure/Scheme

That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.

I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.

Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".

In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.

GL

Frank_Da_Tank

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 685

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 2:17 PM ET #111

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namtak

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 122

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 2:22 PM ET #112

Louisville +8.5. Good luck.

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33024

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 2:31 PM ET #113

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:

Prep Time

Revenge

Defensive Pressure/Scheme

That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.

I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.

Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".

In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.

GL

That is why I like Louisville! UK is the better team, yes, but I still think Louisville keeps it close and loving the under too. Value is the point you are making and is what I must agree with. UK may easily win by DD's, but I am betting they don't

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:

Prep Time

Revenge

Defensive Pressure/Scheme

That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.

I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.

Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".

In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.

GL

That is why I like Louisville! UK is the better team, yes, but I still think Louisville keeps it close and loving the under too. Value is the point you are making and is what I must agree with. UK may easily win by DD's, but I am betting they don't

fupm

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 911

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 2:32 PM ET #114

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TheSource2Win

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 4453

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 2:55 PM ET #115

Great job as always, Neil. Did you post your Kansas/OSU play and I missed it or... is that still to come?

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yankees2k6

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 11594

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 3:01 PM ET #116

Gl

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Gold_Rush

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 7850

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 3:10 PM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by jmilrod:

how in the hell did you type all that in under 2 min.?

Good question

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Gold_Rush

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 7850

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 3:11 PM ET #118

Obviously he worked on it. Then posted it all at once

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Gold_Rush

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 7850

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 3:13 PM ET #119

Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:

Just 1 thought - if you pick 3 out of 4 correct, you still lose...

Bet 'em SU - don't fuck with parlays...

Great advice - ! !

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HoundsBlood

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 804

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 4:19 PM ET #120

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:

Prep Time

Revenge

Defensive Pressure/Scheme

That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.

I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.

Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".

In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.

GL

high level, sophisticated handicapping as always... i'm actually going to go back and re-read all your threads from this year in a few months or at least before next b-ball season. i probably classify as a fanboy, but goddammit, there's always some really profound and enlightening stuff in your picks. best of luck to you, neill....

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Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:

Prep Time

Revenge

Defensive Pressure/Scheme

That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.

I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.

Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".

In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.

GL

high level, sophisticated handicapping as always... i'm actually going to go back and re-read all your threads from this year in a few months or at least before next b-ball season. i probably classify as a fanboy, but goddammit, there's always some really profound and enlightening stuff in your picks. best of luck to you, neill....

Jose_Reyes

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 20468

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 4:31 PM ET #121

Great read. Your work is always appreciated ropp. BOL tonight.

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Rauchy76

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 1213

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 4:42 PM ET #122

Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

I hope you are kidding as only the dumbest fucking person in the world would believe that.

sigh...I just assumed the emoticons spoke for themselves and my not so subtle sarcasm...I obviously shouldn't assume anything w so many "dumb fucking people" out there in the world reading this thread...GL with your UofL wager.

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cmod123

Rookie

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 982

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 4:45 PM ET #123

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WilliamMunny

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 3822

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 4:50 PM ET #124

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Rick Pitino +8.5 is all the public will see in their attempt to knockout the giant.

While the line says KEN by DD's,bettors would rather rest their heads on a COMFORTABLE pillow called getting points.

Second that

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Crush

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 581

Posted: Mar. 31, 2012 - 4:54 PM ET #125

Quote Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:

Second that

I am resting my head on Lou +18 1/2 remaining in my teaser. You would think that would be safe ...

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