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Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.25.16

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FenwayFrank

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 377

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 11:53 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ IPFW Mastodons -2

Wanted to get this locked in early as possible, one because my book actually had the lines out this morning and two I see the public moving this line.

This line seems to good to be true but I am not buying into the trap BS so save it for someone else. Yes I have been burned before and will get burned again but I will always weather the storm and come out ahead.

Mastodons have two games left ( Western Illinois and IUPUI) to be crowned the Summit League Regular Season Champs and lock in the #1 Seed for the tournament. They really need the #1 Seed as the tourney is played in South Dakota and this tournament is like 3 home games in a row for the Jack Rabbits who are 1 game back from IPFW in the standings. #1 seed will assure they do not see South Dakota State in tournament until the championship game. This is huge as the Summit League is a one bid league and it is either going to be IPFW or Jackrabbits. On the other end Western Illinois is on the outside looking in of the Summit Tournament. Only the top 8 teams make it and they are two games back of 8th place so they would need to win out and have help from other teams and tie breakers. Bottom line: There season is done. Why travel to South Dakota for the conference tourney only to get knocked out in round 1 when they can go to a frat party and drink Natural Ice? Even their local newspaper didn't post a pregame interview article for this game. Mastodons have a good squad with a great 2nd year head coach in Coffman. The team really likes him and he has been with them for 5 years (Assistant + head coach) so he knows all the guys from Seniors to freshman. They have good chemistry and are outstanding at home. What really makes me think they can win on the road here is the way freshman guard Konchar has been playing (Summit Player of the Week Again). Anytime you face a team twice it is going to be a little tougher to get another win. IPFW beat WILL by 21 last time and the spread was -9. That spread was about right but IPFW shot 63% in the 2nd half. I do not expect them to shoot 63% again but there season average of 46% should be enough for a win and cover. This line should be at -5 so get it why you can.

$$$$ IPFW Mastodons -2

@bubbaski27...looks solid! And the only injury I see out there is for W Illinois! Tate Stensgaard 3rd leading scorer only at 8.6ppg and leading rebounder at 5.4rpg is questionable after getting hurt in the previous game. He only played 17 minutes and racked up four fouls. Ironically they played at home in a very similar game against South Dakota State and lost by 20! 87-67. BOL

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Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ IPFW Mastodons -2

Wanted to get this locked in early as possible, one because my book actually had the lines out this morning and two I see the public moving this line.

This line seems to good to be true but I am not buying into the trap BS so save it for someone else. Yes I have been burned before and will get burned again but I will always weather the storm and come out ahead.

Mastodons have two games left ( Western Illinois and IUPUI) to be crowned the Summit League Regular Season Champs and lock in the #1 Seed for the tournament. They really need the #1 Seed as the tourney is played in South Dakota and this tournament is like 3 home games in a row for the Jack Rabbits who are 1 game back from IPFW in the standings. #1 seed will assure they do not see South Dakota State in tournament until the championship game. This is huge as the Summit League is a one bid league and it is either going to be IPFW or Jackrabbits. On the other end Western Illinois is on the outside looking in of the Summit Tournament. Only the top 8 teams make it and they are two games back of 8th place so they would need to win out and have help from other teams and tie breakers. Bottom line: There season is done. Why travel to South Dakota for the conference tourney only to get knocked out in round 1 when they can go to a frat party and drink Natural Ice? Even their local newspaper didn't post a pregame interview article for this game. Mastodons have a good squad with a great 2nd year head coach in Coffman. The team really likes him and he has been with them for 5 years (Assistant + head coach) so he knows all the guys from Seniors to freshman. They have good chemistry and are outstanding at home. What really makes me think they can win on the road here is the way freshman guard Konchar has been playing (Summit Player of the Week Again). Anytime you face a team twice it is going to be a little tougher to get another win. IPFW beat WILL by 21 last time and the spread was -9. That spread was about right but IPFW shot 63% in the 2nd half. I do not expect them to shoot 63% again but there season average of 46% should be enough for a win and cover. This line should be at -5 so get it why you can.

$$$$ IPFW Mastodons -2

@bubbaski27...looks solid! And the only injury I see out there is for W Illinois! Tate Stensgaard 3rd leading scorer only at 8.6ppg and leading rebounder at 5.4rpg is questionable after getting hurt in the previous game. He only played 17 minutes and racked up four fouls. Ironically they played at home in a very similar game against South Dakota State and lost by 20! 87-67. BOL

bk1374

Captain

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 7891

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:04 PM ET #27

Europa matches today, a TON of them. These are all 2nd legs. Playing a LOT of unders today, and a few home sides. Unders are dreadful to wager on in soccer. Bet it and forget it is my strategy. Check the scores later and see how we did. Only a true sadomasochist could bet unders in soccer on the regular, but in these 2nd legs, I see value in them sometimes, depending on the teams and how the scoreline went for the 1st leg, as that sometimes dictates the pace of play in the 2nd match. Certainly not expecting to hit all these, but hoping for enough to grind out a profit.

Porto +0.25 (-110)

Molde-Sevilla UN 2.75 (+110)

Basel-St. Etienne UN 2.5 (-115)

Liverpool-Augsburg UN 2.5 (-110)

Krasnador ML (-115)

Schalke ML (-145)

Bilbao ML (-125)

Bilbao - OM UN 2.5 (-120)

Leverkusen - Sporting UN 2.5 (-115)

BOL everyone...............

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Da_Oracle

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 488

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:16 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Bubbaski already hit most of the good stuff on the $$$$ play

On IPFW again. This team is right at my backdoor and have watched them play a few times. They are still the best ATS club in the country. Now, I realize using ATS isn't a barometer to solely base a play on. With these guys though I feel good using it. IPFW is 7-1 last eight ATS head to head. WIU is not a great team. They are at the bottom of the Summit league in offense while IPFW is at the top. IPFW is the best 3 point team in the Summit, WIU is at the bottom both offensively and defensively. Granted IPFW's defense isn't that good stat wise. WIU They should get it done on the road and get the sweep for the season.

Bubbaski has already pointed out great reasons why they want to win these last two games. He is spot on. I will take the small spread.

I will also play the over at 148

$$$$ Play IPFW -2.5

Glad to have you back WMI

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33042

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:25 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by Da_Oracle:

Glad to have you back WMI

Thanks. I was a bad boy and was in time out for a few days

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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USC_Holmey

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 896

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:36 PM ET #30

Hi guys. Still reeling from that first half in Corvallis last night. The whole reason I come on here and work on this thread is to help people make money, and when I know that a play I posted actually costs people money, it hits me pretty hard. I hate it. Takes all the wind out of my sails.

Someone DM'ed me and told me that the friggin' game last night didn't go over until there were 30 seconds left? Christ. That first half will haunt me for a while. How that second half went is how the whole game was supposed to look. It pisses me right off that Oregon State won, too, because they deserved to lose that game because they let UW just dictate that game.

Oh well. On to today. Good luck guys.

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Drock13

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 66

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:39 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by rangersmets:

Huge $$$ play in NHL for me on Thursday. NHL is my specialty and have had this game circled all week.

The Carolina Hurricanes go to the ACC to face the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are blowing up their roster in anticipation of getting one of the top 3 picks in the draft this June. The Leafs have 11 players in their lineup who spent time with their minor league affiliate this season.

The Canes have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL since Christmas and are just 2 points behind Pittsburgh for the last wild-card berth in the Eastern Conf. Carolina is loaded with talented young forwards, the veteran presence of Eric and Jordan Staal, and also just got stronger with the return of star defenceman Justin Faulk who missed 6 games due to injury. This is a game they cannot afford to lose as they battle for their first playoff appearance since 2009.

Now, the Leafs have played 3 straight close games - all at home - against the Rangers, Philly and Nashville. But here is the kicker: all of those teams were playing their 2nd game in 2 nights on the road, which allowed the Leafs to hang around against teams with tired legs. The Leafs still ended up losing each game, though they did get a point for getting to OT vs. the Flyers.

This one, however, will not be close. I look for the speedy Canes to pounce on this woeful Leafs lineup and cruise to victory.

At the reasonable price of -119, I have already jumped the Canes on a 10-unit play. I may also add a sprinkle on the puck line once I check the goaltending and injury reports in the morning.

CAROLINA HURRICANES -119.

Really Wish I saw this hours ago. it's at -160 on SIA now :-(

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33042

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:46 PM ET #32

Don't let it get you down Holmey

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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ByrdMane612

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 1819

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 12:47 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Hi guys. Still reeling from that first half in Corvallis last night. The whole reason I come on here and work on this thread is to help people make money, and when I know that a play I posted actually costs people money, it hits me pretty hard. I hate it. Takes all the wind out of my sails.

Someone DM'ed me and told me that the friggin' game last night didn't go over until there were 30 seconds left? Christ. That first half will haunt me for a while. How that second half went is how the whole game was supposed to look. It pisses me right off that Oregon State won, too, because they deserved to lose that game because they let UW just dictate that game.

Oh well. On to today. Good luck guys.

Yeah man, I was watching that game too (last leg of my 4 team parlay for $300) it was just hard to digest knowing how they played the second half. I mean you couldn't have capped it any better, like you said if Oregon st had played like they did defensively in the 2nd half with a snail pace and good defense we all would of cashed in, but garbage happens and gambling in unpredictable. Yesterday is the past so keep chugging along because we all know how resourceful you are when it comes to the west coast games especially your knowledge on the Pac 12. Great job this season and let's keep getting

boyz

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nfl_brosuf

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 9485

Posted: Feb. 25, 2016 - 1:07 PM ET #34

8-5 $$$$
5-2 NBA
4-2 no$$$$

- No playing ranked team against no rank. The upset factor
- No playing away teams. Home crowd is the 6th man factor
- No playing if their ATS record is poorer than opponent
- No Reverse Line Movement factor
- No playing if line is more than 10. The OT can't cover factor

Wright State (17-12; 11-14-1 ATS; 11-14-1 O/U) vs. Youngstown State (10-19; 11-14 ATS; 17-8 O/U)

I do not like to play away fav but there are conditions that I will play it. I know that it might blow my criteria but I will have to take a shot here.

Both teams are like night and day. One with a poor record and one with a better record. You think I put money on a crappy team? You must be joking me.

The overall ATS for both teams are about dead even and even is about as par as I can go with this. However, I like value and advantages.

These two teams played before and Wright state at home blew them out bad by the score of 81-45. Now they are playing again in youngstown state but look at the spread. It is so yummie.

The edge here is that youngstown state has no defense whatsoever. They are ranked 346th in the nation in defense and giving teams to blow them out by allowing an average of 83 points per game. I am also expecting for tons of offensive rebound for wright state as well as youngstown state can not get rebound. Offensive rebound = more points the other way.

Wright state wanted a win in this game. With a win here, they can contend to tie with oakland in this conference for 2nd place. Wright state is also a defensive built team. They are 48th in the nation on defense.

The only thing sux about wright state is that when they are a fav and away, they tend to lose games. On the flip side, when youngstown state is a dog at home, they loses. Another penalty offset, first down.

Youngstown state is 1-6 ATS last 7

Wright state is 2-7 ATS last 9

Pretty pathetic but who is better of the pathetic? That's right

The Wright State Raiders are:

6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

The Youngstown State Penguins are:

8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games.
0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a straight up winning record.

USc, give me Wright state -8 for $$$$

==================================================

Ah, I have to give a no$$$$ play as well.

ul monroe vs south bama

When Monroe is a fav, they are 7-1 SU but 5-3 ATS

When south bama is a dog at home, they are 3-3 ATS

These two teams played before @ monroe beat south bama bad by the score of 68 - 100. South bama was a +8 dog. Now we go play @south bama for a discounted pricing of laying the +5 spread.

Monroe is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS their last 10. Their loss was in OT against laf by the way.

Monroe is 2nd place in their conference only after ark little rock. Monroe and little rock are 1-1 a piece and I would like to see a 3rd rematch to see who will get the tourney bid.

The UL-Monroe Warhawks are:

4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The South Alabama Jaguars are:

2-10 ATS in their last 12 versus UL-Monroe

Usc, give me Monroe -5 for no$$$$ here please

Maybe an NBA play later to call it a complete happy meal.

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