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I have won 16 of 22 games with a system I have been using ONLY in NCAA B-Ball

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Posted: #101
BET THE FUCKING OPPOSITE OF THE LINE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

example

KANSAS is AVG 84 PPG
UMASS is AVG 69

KANSAS is -15

KANSAS is giving up  62 ppg

UMASS is giving up 74

KANSAS is now - another 12

15+12 =27

KANSAS -27

The actual line was -KANSAS -18

The PUBLIC was ALL OVER KANSAS.

So play on the opposite is UMASS +18 


 
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Posted: #102
I think you got it. Good becuase I need help. Sorry I wasnt around. I had to work today.,
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by ragingstorm:

I think you got it. Good becuase I need help. Sorry I wasnt around. I had to work today.,

its the exact same thing i run almost Raging. Glad you pointed out that TEMP game cause i had my numbers mixed up with a different game...

 
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Posted: #104
    Thanks storm, sorry about the mis understanding.
 
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Posted: #105
Oh and as we get deeper in the season dont use overall stats start using home and away...
 
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Posted: #106
I TRIED ONE MY SELF WOULD GA.ST BE THE PLAY AGAINST FSU
 
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Posted: #107
where do you guys get the Public % from?
 
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Posted: #108
Oh. I was thinking why did you take Tenn if you ran almost the same thing. Glad I posted this morning


Play on Northern Iowa +3 and New Mexico -4

Strong on Northern Iowa OK on NM. Im bound to lose fire soon so be careful. I also won on the totals system last night 4-0 between team totals AND game totals. So please bet with caution. .
 
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Posted: #109
Can you start a new thread and list todays plays as they come please?
 
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Posted: #110
The only time i make plays is if the PUB is over 75%. Feel more confident and it has to be double the actual spread or a complete landslide to the fav. but you got to remember im using home/away stats. I have yet to bet on favs it has all been dogs...
 
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Posted: #111
Why New Mexico?
 
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Posted: #112
Pacific at Pepperdine
 
Pac should be -9, they are -6....public on Pac at 60%....bet Pepperdine, correct?
 
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Posted: #113
Todays plays for my FADED SYSTEM so far today are, IND ST, UMASS, and VALPO. Looking at DEP and SF for tonight...
 
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Posted: #114
FSU is the right concept but NOT A PLAY because the difference is NOT enough.

NEW MEXICO should be getting 1 but are giving 4 (always buy) therefore with only 56% on the Submitfavorite (NM) the play is on NM!!
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:

Pacific at Pepperdine
 
Pac should be -9, they are -6....public on Pac at 60%....bet Pepperdine, correct?


let me step in, think raging is getting lots of questions
I think the gap needs to be >5
so the -9 vs -6 is only a gap of 3
look for a larger gap
 
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Posted: #116
How many ML winners has your brought up? My biggest one was WKU over LOU as 17 pt home dogs...
 
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Posted: #117
Harvard & Geo. Wash. game: Geo Wash -10.5, should've been +2, public @ 80 % on Geo Wash. was the play Harvard ?
 
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Posted: #118
Rage can you post you NBA picks for tonite?
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by ragingstorm:

Believe me or not I dont give a rats ass.

Last night my games were Middle Tenn St. And Miami(Ohio)

Here what you do


Take team A

Say that team A is avg 66 PPG on Offense

Team B is AVG 58

Now team A is favored by 8 points.

Now move on to defense

Say team A is giving up 57 PPG and team is giving up 63

Now team is is favored another 6 on defense. 6+ 8 =14

What do u do with this?

BET THE OPPOSITE

but NEVER BET WITH THE PUBLIC!!!!!!

UNLESS the favorite is getting less than 55% support.

So team A is favored by 14 in my theory

Say the vegas line is TEAM A -6. they are only 6 points better but the damn Vegas line for some reason has them at -14 and the public thinks team B is going to cover then you take the bad line. becuase Vegas expects you to take the DOG.

Now if team A in our line was 8 points better but were giving 2 you take the dog because the public will always take the fav becuase the line is low.

Example tonight

Drake is avg 69 PPG
GaS is AVG 66

Drake -3

Defense Drake gives up an Avg of 62 and GaS gives up 78

so minus another 16

Drake in my line should be favored by 16+3=19

The real line is Drake -12

The public has Drake 75%

The play is Ga Southern +12

Ill probably lose tonight but this shit seriously works. NBA also but not as well as totals. I have develooped a killer team total system in the NBA Ill get to that whenever




Most systems are silly ... but this is one is the most silly I have seen in a while ...

 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Bird4332:

Todays plays for my FADED SYSTEM so far today are, IND ST, UMASS, and VALPO. Looking at DEP and SF for tonight...

Bird - sorry but can you explain Valpo....does not look like big enough public on Valpo to make this a play (where do you get your public % by the way?)

 
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Posted: #121
How nout
2H ,MASSACHUSETTS +11EV
 
thoughts??
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Posted: #122
How bout I meant
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Posted: #123
12/13/08 537 Valparaiso +17-105 2065 12% 4% 14%
4:00PM 538 Miami (Ohio) -17-115 88% 96% 86%
 
 
1st column is the spread...
 
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Posted: #124
ANYONE LIKE UMASS 2H +11 ??
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Posted: #125
Bird,

May I ask where you get your public percentages?
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