Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 0-0, +0.00
January Leans: 0-0
January: 31 circled plays, 5* per.
What kind of offense can I expect from Minnesota against Michigan? I mean, four of the last five meeting between Beilein and Tubby have all hit under 59 possessions. Both coaches know what they want to do here. This total is just way too high, and I thought it would come high. Minnesota's offense has looked decent, actually they're currently top 50 in the country in terms of efficiency. The big reason they're that high is because they've played a bunch of teams that lack fundamentals from a defensive standpoint. The Illinois game is obvious, to me at least, that they could score when they wanted to because Illinois can't guard in the half court. Prior to that, they played a tough defense and a team that likes to get up and down in NDSU and they struggled mightily only posting a 63 point total. Prior to that they posted a point total of 76 against a Central Michigan team who was on the third game of a three game roady. Here's the thing with Minnesota,they've scored better than 30+ points in the five games leading up to the game at Ilinois, where they did not hit 30 in the half. They scored 27 there, and B-10 basketball is just different in terms of style. Tubby can't run with other quality teams, and he knows it. In the Ilinois game, he made sure he slowed the tempo and that game lands far below 70 possessions if it doesn't hit 2 overtimes. Neither of these teams play fast, not even close to it. Both will want to slow it down as that's where both have advantages in the half court. From Michigan standpoint offensively, they're going to shoot the 3ball. That's pretty much a given and a scary trait in putting an investment in an under, however, Minnesota's guard defense is about all it has going for it right now. From a defensive perspective, Michigan guards the interior a ton better than it does the perimeter, as I've noted that the one major thing that has hurt Minnesota since the injury to Mbakewe is its lack of guard play. When you don't have guards who can score, the offense sort of beomces on dimensional and is pretty easy to defend, and something Beilein has picked apart in recent years. When this guy can focus on one dynamic, it usually gets taken care of. Michigan, from an offensive standpoint, just got a big win over Penn State in it's home opener. Sure, you can get up for the opener, but can you get up fora Minnesota team that's played like garbage since losing Mbwakwe? Also noting, Michigan sort of has Indiana on deck. Michigan has shown signs of running at times this year, but its been against teams who have wanted to push thepace quite a bit and Beileinhas takendthat into context. He just doesnt have an advantage running here. His goal against Tubby coached teams the past few years has been to move the ball, wear out the defense and get an easy bucket. It's really been their motto this year. They continue to shoot a ton of three's as I had mentioned, but they're also the most efficient team from inside the arc in the country. Yup, they're currently shooting 60% from the field inside the arc. That's where Minnesota's defense comes into play, but Michigan's #'s are a bit skewed. Theyve had to go against quite a few high pace teams where they allow more inside shots in an up-tempo pace. Here's the shocker, and what made me circle this total as to why I think it would come out a bit higher than it should. Here is the last six games between these two teams, both the same coaches, both the same styles, just a tad bit lesser of an offense on both sides:
127
129
122
129.5
126
127
All six games listed above went over. But I'm going to be honest, all six of those games featured more offense. And, as I've pointed out, five of those six games came in under 60 possessions. It's a scary proposition taking Michigan in any under because of the absurd amount of three's they attempt. With Minnesota coming off a 2OT loss and hitting the road again for another roady, it only helps the cause for this one to be a snail.
In the end, this really comes down to coaching. Since losing Mbakwe, Tubby's explored several options. Against snails like Virginia Tech & USC, he doesn't mind playing slow because he thinks his defense can win the game and their is no reason to push the pace. Against a team like Illinois, he went up and down b/c he thought he had some advantages getting Myers Leonard out of the paint. There really isn't a reason for him to push it here. He's going to rely on his defense that has yeielded the following points in regulation the past 6 games:
55
40
56
47
56
59
64
Again, the lone time going over 60 was the game he wanted to push to take Leonard out of the game. And here is where the value is. Every Minnesota total outside of one this year has either been at or below this #....
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