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January Hoops

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Posted: #26
thanks Neil. 
 
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Posted: #27
thank you Neil...all the best this year
 
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Posted: #28
Right on the money.  Great analysis and prediction.
 
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Posted: #29
Nice job! 2012 startin out right!
 
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Posted: #30
very nice analysis thank you
 
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Posted: #31
Great focus today.
                              
 
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Posted: #33
What a surprise - winning day and the parade of jackasses is nowhere to be found!

Great work as always, bud.
 
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Posted: #35
thank you Sir!
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

What a surprise - winning day and the parade of jackasses is nowhere to be found!

Great work as always, bud.
 
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Posted: #37
nice hit, wasnt even close
 
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Posted: #38
Where the haters now?   <Crickets>
 
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Posted: #39
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 1-0, +5.00
January Leans: 1-0


Monday


This one probably sounds familiar to the same play that I made last year, as it's based directly on the results in that one. About a year ago, NC Wilmington welcomed Delaware and beat them pretty badly by a score of 76-53. A consistently bad offense shot 49% from the field and made a whopping 59% from the three point line. Normally in this situation, it would be a good spot for revenge, but I will get to that in a minute. It should be pointed out that the three highest scoring games for NC Wilmington last year in the conference came against Bill & Mary (91), Towson (95), and Delaware (76). An offense ranked mid to bottom of the country was able to take three conference games and score not only a bit above their average, but quite a bit above their average. And here's where last year's angle comes into play. Buzz Peterson offenses LOVE going against teams that rarely look to force turnovers and don't pressure the ball. Because of the lack of pressure, and because the defenses don't take any risks, the guy can run whatever set he wants and knows exactly what type of shot he is going to get. And that's why they've succeeded playing against these types of teams. In fact, last year's team that he had was the worst offensive squad he has ever been a part of, and they took care of business. He's an offensive genius, although his defense needs a bit more work, in a game like this, the offense is going to win the game. Getting back to the three opponents I listed above and the three highest point totals of the CAA season, they all have the same thing in common. Neither of them last year focused on turning the ball over in the half court. Delaware ranked dead last in the country last year at #345, something that has been a constant for Monte Ross coached teams over the years. William & Mary ranked #340. Towson ranked in the 200's, but it's a bit misleading b/c almost all of their defensive statistics are accrued by pressure in the full court rather than the half court, so that's a different story. 

Along those same lines, the NC Wilmington offense has been improving this year. They played an extremely tough schedule early, and have gotten quite a bit better as of late. They beat an Illinois State team at Ilinois State, another team who plays solid defense in the half court, yet doesn't look to take risks, get out position and force turnovers. They scored 77 at Liberty, they're ranked #311 in the country at forcing turnovers. The only losses since the beginning of December come at the hands of VCU and Wake Forest, two teams who take you out of everything you want to do from a half court perspective. Most recently, they just beat a Furman team and scored 72 in the process, and that Furman team's style? Yup, no risk taking here, they rank #333 in forcing the pressure. As you can see, this NC Wilmington will have faced what it's facing in it's own gym today numerous times this year, and make no mistake about it, when Buzz Peterson can run his sets, or even has the chance to run his sets, even if his offense isn't qualified to do so, he's going to be efficient and he will put points on the board.

With Delaware, if any of you watched the Temple game, please throw it out the window. Everything Ross did from an offensive standpoint was based on the opponent, and it worked out. What didn't work out, was the result. They lost by three in a game that was close the entire way (I think 8 late changes), and saw Temple hit a shot late to be the winner. So you can forget the gameplan, but don't forget the result. To come up that short against a Big Name like Temple is one thing. To come up short at home is another thing. And to come up short in front of 4200+ people, the largest crowd at the Bob Carpenter Center is another thing. And here is where I think the letdown occurs. You're a Delaware team that played the likes of Villanova, LaSalle, Drexel, and now Temple in front of a large crowd, and you're forced to go on the road three days later to a much smaller crowd. Again, I bring up the revenge factor for Delaware, but how relevant is it with so much roster turnover? I don't see it being a factor. Not only hitting the road, but you're bouncing back for an early tip on the road. These things add up. Speaking of the road, Delaware's lone road win this year came at Delaware State, a snail team who plays zone that doesn't really have any big wins this year (2 of their 4 wins come against non-D1 squads). The reason I bring up this Delaware State game, is due in large part to it being the only road victory, but it also comes with some scheduling factor. Delaware has played in two games this year with short prep. The first came at Delaware State where they posted a 56, and the second came at Howard, where they lost by 5 (sadly, Howard's other big win this year was over Delaware State). Delaware has been pretty bad on the road. They've lost to Radford, Boston, Penn, and Howard. And that's where we try to pinpoint why. It's simple, and I've alluded to it before. They're extremely young. Outside of Hagins and Sadler (who take a combined 58% of their shots), the role players have no experience. They have no experience going on the road. They have no experience bouncing back from a devastating home loss where attendance was at a premium for the first time since 2005, and they have no experience bouncing back to play on the road bouncing back so quickly and getting into a day-time setting....
 
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....Yes, it's a conference game, and those are easy to get up for, especially when you're started out 1-0 in the conference, but my guess is that with the 8 days of prep time prior to Temple, they put an emphasis on preparing for only Temple. It was a big time game for their program. With that said, UNC Wilmington is 0-1 in the conference (loss came at red-hot VCU; insert Briant Weber's defensive prowess sentence here), and the effort should be there to get a conference win at home. From a defensive standpoint, Buzz Peterson has been the type to mix it up depending on the flow of the game. In past year's he has gone from zone to man on every other possession for the entire length of the game, and this year he has stuck to a bit more man. I don't have a problem with either in this matchup, but he will go zone a bit. When he does go to the zone, I'm getting exactly what I want. The zone takes Hagins out of the equation (last year he had 4 points when NC Wilmington played 80% of that game in a zone). Outside of that, you have Saddler forcing his shots from the outside, and the role players doing the same. Delaware has a few shooters, but if I'm expecting the letdown, then the complacency should set in. They'll settle for outside shots if NC Wilmington goes zone, and it may sound dumb, but that's what I'm hoping for. If they aren't complacent, then they'll also have a tough time figuring out what defense NC Wilmington is using. Whether it be a 3/4 court zone press, or the zone in the half court, or man to man, or a half court trap, everything is designed to take the opponent's best player out of the equation and that's exactly what it does here. When you force the ball out of Saddler's hands, and keep the ball away from the post and Hagins, then the others are going to have to play over their heads to beat me and I'm perfectly OK with them doing so. If you look at Delaware's season to date, they've played the best offensively when both Hagins and Sadler are producing. When they aren't producing together, then the other is forced to take more shots and that's not what you want when you are Delaware. As I've mentioned before, Sadler attempts 35% of this team's shots, and he scores a ton, but he's only shooting 38% and against the different defenses, he shouldn't be in any rhythm. I'd argue it's a good thing that he keeps forcing shots, which takes away some decent looks from the role players. When they settle from an offensive standpoint, they're playing right into the zone. And when you just play a team like Temple to the end, there is a good shot you're going to settle. I'm getting the home team favored by less than a possession, against an inexperienced and bad road squad who plays the defensive style that the home team has faced numerous times and had success, and I'll take my chances.

5* NC Wilmington -3

As for the lean, I see a ton of value in the Long Beach State and UC Irvine game pointing to the under. It's a bit of a risky play being that both team's like to get up and down and have over the past few years in the history of this matchup, so the possessions and the probability of this one being an up and down game is up there. However, if you throw out Cal Poly and it's snail irregular style, these are probably the best two defenses in the conference and what each team wants to do from that standpoint is really aimed at what the other team's offensive strengths are. I think Long Beach State's schedule has proven to be probably the toughest in the country, there is no arguing that. But, it's also been somewhat convincing from a defensive standpoint. Sure, they gave up 77 at San Diego State, but that game hit 81 possessions. They gave up 88 to Kansas, another game that crossed the 80 possession barrier. The 84 they gave up to North Carolina came in a 78 possession ballgame. All of these high possession games should be yielding quite a bit more points, and they aren't because the defense is solid. They have made fools out of Idaho who scored 61 (offense rank #66), Boise who scored 62 (offense rank #52), and they held Auburn to 43 on a back-to-back spot. Now, Auburn's offense is putrid, but it's also a full 50 spots better than what UC Irvine brings into this game. UC Irvine has scored over 70 in just four games this season. In those four games, the average defensive ranking came in at a whopping #248 and those games averaged a whopping 75 possessions. Again, I think the probability that this game has that many possessions is there, but if LBSU gets a lead, they'll tend to slow the game. They also have Cal Poly on tap, a contender for the Big West title, so if they do get a lead, I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a slow approach and practice a few things to get a jump on prep for that snail later in the week. The last factor pointing to the under here is that when UC Irvine isn't out in transition and isn't running up and down the court as fast as they can, they're in a zone defense. They probaby go zone here, b/c there is no way they can efficiently score with LBSU and try to compete. It just isn't plausible....
 
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..... With the zone, LBSU isn't the best outside shooting team, so it's another factor pointing to the under here. Again, one last time, it's a bit of a risk, but with everything factored in, it just seems like a good spot for an under. These games were lined in the 150-152 range last year, but LBSU has slowed a bit, both defenses have improved, and UC Irvine has lost a ton of offensive firepower (they scored 70+ in all three meetings last year, and I can't see them hitting it here).

Lean: Long Beach State/UC Irvine Under 148.5

Just an interesting game I thought in terms of matchups was VCU travelling to Hofstra. VCU's playing their tail end of a three game roady after the second game went into OT. The problem with a letdown is the fact that the energy and emotion that Hofstra put into beating Iona was at an all-time high. They talked about that Iona matchup prior to the season starting a spot I clearly overlooked. Hofstra might get the services of Mejia back, which helps the flow of the offense but it may be a bad thing considering the guy who repaced Mejia is McMillan who has assisted on 34% of the team's buckets, who usually go the direction of Moore and Lester who shoot all of their shots. Mejia posted similar numbers at Rhode Island before the transfer and hamstring issue. I'm curious to see who Weber guards. Does Shaka put him on the shooters, or does he put him on the PG position to disrupt the offense? Gun to my head, in previous instances this year, he's used his defense on the PG slot, so I assume he'll do the same here. Hofstra's offense has sucked against teams who use pressure on PG position. They scored 43 on Wagner (defensive stud is a PG), 62 on Cleveland State (defensive stud guards PG, remember my love affection for D'Aundray Brown last year?), and only posted a 59 on Manhattan (who doesn't really have a defensive stud, but they press and take you out of your sets). The past few years, the series has yielded quite a few points, but last year's meeting only hit 66 possessions. Prior to that, both teams were running gunners and got up and down a lot more than what they do now. Now, each team depends on the defense to dictate how much they run. Probably a good spot for the under, given the matchups (and another game where Shaka will use Weber more, making the defense better and offense worse) and all of the other outside stuff going on here with VCU continuing on the road after a physical OT win, and Hofstra in a big letdown spot coming off a game and defensive style of Iona that allows you to do anything and everything you want in the half court. Not the case here w/ Shaka's havoc. 

Lean: VCU/Hofstra Under 135.5

Monday Tidbits: UC Santa Barbara puts a five game roady to rest with the last stop at Cal Poly, but they have had 10 days of prep between game #4 and tonight's game #5. Texas A&M takes part in a true road game for the first time this year. I'm curious to see what Baylor does. On paper, they're better. But, they're also coming off an up and down comeback at BYU, a trip west against St. Mary's and an OT win against WVU, and now a come from behind win over Mississippi State where they just looked fatigued. That's a rough stretch for any team to go through, then have to take on Kennedy's defense. I see value in St. Peter's. Dunne's defense has held Marist to 54, 53, 49, and 39 the last four meetings. I've mentioned how awful this St. Peter's offense is numerous times this year and it's holding true to its form. Dunne just needs to let them run. They suck in the half court, and have no identity. In a game where they can run, you don't have to rely on it as much. And with a Marist team who likes to run, they should get the opportunity to do so. In games that have crossed 70 possessions, the average margin of defeat was 6 points. The games that did not exceed 70 possessions, the average was 16. It's not rocket science, take a bad offense and speed them up and they become better instantly. If there is any indication that this game should be a bit more up and down, take a look at the total. the last four meetings that I pointed out above were all lined at or below 120ish. This total is at 130+. Just some interesting dynamics with the tidbits.

GL
 
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Posted: #42
Very nice write up, nropp! Good luck today!
 
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Posted: #43
SO VCU IS A LETDOWN LATER WHAT ABOUT UCSB MONEYLINE ........
 
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Nice write-up.  Personally, I wonder if the letdown factor might be a bit overstated.  It's not hard for teams to get into conference games, especially when this is really the start of conference season and Delaware has 3 conf games in the 8 days I believe.  Either way, GL.
 
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Posted: #46
Great call on Minnesota-Michigan! 

Rider and Drexel stood out to me as two dogs that can not only cover but potential to win outright today, any insight would be appreciated!
 
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Posted: #47
Wow. So much information. I apreciate it

GL
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by SMARTBET101:

SO VCU IS A LETDOWN LATER WHAT ABOUT UCSB MONEYLINE ........

VCU letdown, but also Hofstra letdown.

Anything's possible in the UCSB game. Contrasting styles, and from my perspective, if you're going to take part in it, the points hold more value in a game where every possession counts.

GL
 
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Posted: #49
I like UNCW myself but no reason for a writeup now after reading this one.
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Nice write-up.  Personally, I wonder if the letdown factor might be a bit overstated.  It's not hard for teams to get into conference games, especially when this is really the start of conference season and Delaware has 3 conf games in the 8 days I believe.  Either way, GL.

Letdown might be a bit overstated as you say, but that's going to be how you approach the game and the match-ups. I think all teams letdown at some point in the season, you just have to try and pick the spots where you think it occurs. Just the past few days you have Illinois State who looked pathetic on the road in conference after their biggest conference win in years. You have Oklahoma State losing a game they probably don't lose 90 times out of 100 after playing a rough 2OT battle. You have Wichita State going on the road, making all their shots and posting a 90, only to come home to letdown in a poor showing in conference against Creighton. Clearly, again it's just a personal preference for me. And it depends on the spot, and more than just the letdown. But anyone that takes part in sports lets the guard down a little bit. They're all human. Obviously, not letting down is the difference between the good teams and the bad ones.

GL
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