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Encore

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Posts: 596

Posted: Jan. 2, 2012 - 5:39 PM ET #76

Squeaky-clean thread.

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bail8gent

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1038

Posted: Jan. 2, 2012 - 5:46 PM ET #77

Neil... Last 2 Days have been very good with the write-ups and in depth anaylsis .... I like this approach better ,, focusing on 1 BIG game rather than 5-6 games! Thanks again brother ! And wishing you a Great 2012 !

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clem1

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Posts: 380

Posted: Jan. 2, 2012 - 6:22 PM ET #78

Quote Originally Posted by bail8gent:

Neil... Last 2 Days have been very good with the write-ups and in depth anaylsis .... I like this approach better ,, focusing on 1 BIG game rather than 5-6 games! Thanks again brother ! And wishing you a Great 2012 !

agree great job

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cmval5454

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Posts: 177

Posted: Jan. 2, 2012 - 7:04 PM ET #79

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banger12525

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Posted: Jan. 2, 2012 - 10:34 PM ET #80

Great start to 2012

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miniman44444

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Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 900

Posted: Jan. 2, 2012 - 10:47 PM ET #81

glad to see your back to posting only the main play you like gl this year bud

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composite

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Posts: 4418

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 2:01 AM ET #82

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nropp11

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Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 3:40 AM ET #83

November: 46-38, +5.20

November Leans: 39-38

December: 65-70, -9.45

December Leans: 67-79

January: 2-0, +10.00

January Leans: 2-1

Tuesday

In the very few instances that I lay any kind of chalk, let alone a decently sized chalk in a low setting, about everything I see has to fit in just right, and that's what I get here. Western Illinois will take the air out of the ball and force you to play slow regardless of what you want to do. If you're an opponent, you might as well throw your playbook along with any previous gameplan you have used out the window because it's a totally different stye. As I mentioned, they take the air out of the ball on offense, run the shot clock down and try to get the best possible shot within the offense as possible. From a defensive standpoint, they mix in a little zone more of a matchup style that forces your guards to play outside of a regular position. What I mean by this is that it's rare for opponents to get into their offensive sets and run them with any kind of efficiency because they stretch the pressure pretty far out. It's been a common theme among opponents from what I've seen this year that rather than making the entry pass to the wing at or near the three-point line, that pass is instead about 7 or 8 feet off of that towards the half court line. It's the main reason amost all of their games are slow, and something Molinari has perfected at WIU. And this is where the opponent really makes a difference, and the main reason this has been circled for quite a while. This is South Dakota's first year in the Summit League, and while they fit in with most teams here from a perspective of wanting to get out and run, this is really their first big test at facing a team with this style that won't allow you to do that. It's really hard for me to ignore that fact. They aren't use to it. They have no familiarity with what it is, and they've only had a few days to prepare for a copmletely drastic change in how this game should and will be played. As I mentioned, it's their first year in the conference. They came over from the Great West, where they have had decent success the past few years, but again this is a totally different ballgame. Last year, the entire Great West Conference played to a fast tempo, and all 7 teams played far above the average tempo. Success was derived from being use to the opponents, being able to guage what you can and cannot do in the fast setting, and more or less, playing the brand of basketball you like to play with not a single slow team.

Unfortunately for South Dakota, they won't be able to play to their strength's here. The really amazing feat for Western Illinois is that they're a much better team at home than they are on the road, and this can probably be attributed to a few things. First, the travel within the Summit League isn't all that easy as most destinations outside of the Dakota's are not an easy trip. Second, Western Illinois' attendance is atrocious. Nobody goes to the games. Not only do opponents have to travel in, they have to somehow get up for a game without an audience and get up for a game only to be put to sleep by the tempo at which it's played. What Western Illinois has done at home this year is truly remarkable. In the conference opener, they held North Dakota State to 51 points. You all know how high I am on North Dakota State's offense this year, well they made them look stupid. Just two days later, they held South Dakota State to 67 points. That's even more important holding those quality teams that have hit 90+ on a regular basis on most games this year. But the thing that's even really really really more important, is that while those two teams struggled in those games, those are also two teams that are EXTREMELY familiar with what they were getting themselves into....

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November: 46-38, +5.20

November Leans: 39-38

December: 65-70, -9.45

December Leans: 67-79

January: 2-0, +10.00

January Leans: 2-1

Tuesday

In the very few instances that I lay any kind of chalk, let alone a decently sized chalk in a low setting, about everything I see has to fit in just right, and that's what I get here. Western Illinois will take the air out of the ball and force you to play slow regardless of what you want to do. If you're an opponent, you might as well throw your playbook along with any previous gameplan you have used out the window because it's a totally different stye. As I mentioned, they take the air out of the ball on offense, run the shot clock down and try to get the best possible shot within the offense as possible. From a defensive standpoint, they mix in a little zone more of a matchup style that forces your guards to play outside of a regular position. What I mean by this is that it's rare for opponents to get into their offensive sets and run them with any kind of efficiency because they stretch the pressure pretty far out. It's been a common theme among opponents from what I've seen this year that rather than making the entry pass to the wing at or near the three-point line, that pass is instead about 7 or 8 feet off of that towards the half court line. It's the main reason amost all of their games are slow, and something Molinari has perfected at WIU. And this is where the opponent really makes a difference, and the main reason this has been circled for quite a while. This is South Dakota's first year in the Summit League, and while they fit in with most teams here from a perspective of wanting to get out and run, this is really their first big test at facing a team with this style that won't allow you to do that. It's really hard for me to ignore that fact. They aren't use to it. They have no familiarity with what it is, and they've only had a few days to prepare for a copmletely drastic change in how this game should and will be played. As I mentioned, it's their first year in the conference. They came over from the Great West, where they have had decent success the past few years, but again this is a totally different ballgame. Last year, the entire Great West Conference played to a fast tempo, and all 7 teams played far above the average tempo. Success was derived from being use to the opponents, being able to guage what you can and cannot do in the fast setting, and more or less, playing the brand of basketball you like to play with not a single slow team.

Unfortunately for South Dakota, they won't be able to play to their strength's here. The really amazing feat for Western Illinois is that they're a much better team at home than they are on the road, and this can probably be attributed to a few things. First, the travel within the Summit League isn't all that easy as most destinations outside of the Dakota's are not an easy trip. Second, Western Illinois' attendance is atrocious. Nobody goes to the games. Not only do opponents have to travel in, they have to somehow get up for a game without an audience and get up for a game only to be put to sleep by the tempo at which it's played. What Western Illinois has done at home this year is truly remarkable. In the conference opener, they held North Dakota State to 51 points. You all know how high I am on North Dakota State's offense this year, well they made them look stupid. Just two days later, they held South Dakota State to 67 points. That's even more important holding those quality teams that have hit 90+ on a regular basis on most games this year. But the thing that's even really really really more important, is that while those two teams struggled in those games, those are also two teams that are EXTREMELY familiar with what they were getting themselves into....

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 3:41 AM ET #84

....They've played Western in the past on a regular basis. They knew exactly what to expect, and they struggled for the full 40 minutes. Now, bring in a team that has no familiarity, and a team that has no idea what they're up against and the struggle should be greater. Aside from the two conference games, they've held Eastern Illinois to 48 points, and held a North Dakota team who is a mirror image of this South Dakota team, and is a team who comes from that Great West Conference that I alluded to earlier to 46 points.

The thing I've really struggled with the past few years was overvaluing the WIU defense b/c a result of the low scores was more or less attributed to their style of play and lack of offense combined with the offensive system in place. Molinari coached teams really rely on defense to play a big part, and he hasn't had a team that's really been all that good defensively here at WIU, even though with the low scores it looked like he did have good defensive teams. I was projecting them to take a big step forward in that department last year, but some key injuries to some very good defensive players was a primary reason. Last year, in both the Oakland/South Dakota State games they gave up 79+ in all four meetings. A big reason for that was the absence of Ceola Clark. I had the opportunity to watch him play in a local Holiday tournament in the area a few year's back and he was matched up with Derrick Rose and held him to 9 points in the title game. He's had some injuries since, but he was the Summit League Defensive player of the year as a Sophomore, and would have been the DPOY as a junior had it not been for an injury last season at the start of conference play. With that said, it's probaby shaping up to be his award to lose again this year. He draws a lengthy guard in Charlie Westbrook, who for the past two years, has attempted at least 30% of North Dakota's shot attempts, and he's not that efficient in doing so. He's an all everything guard, scores, assists, blocks, and the main cog in making the offense work. Keep in mind, all of these #'s for shot attempts and assists and steals and everything comes in a much faster pace, and pretty much deemed useless. Let's take a look at what Clark has done this year against similar types of players on the defensive side of things:

IUPUI, Alex Young, 15 Points (Young's lowest point total aside from Louisville)

North Dakota, Troy Huff, 9 Points (He takes 32% of his team's shots, shot 3/14)

SDSTU, Nate Wolters, 17 Points (Probaby POY in conference to this point, shot 5/14 and 7 of those came from the FT line)

NDSTU, Lawrence Alexander, 16 Points (Probaby runner up for POY to this point, shot 5/14 as well)

Clark being in the lineup helps this WIU team, especially when they look to get out of the zone and force the pressure. Not only that, but he's a main weapon in the offensive system that WIU employs, and that's a part of the reason why he's so successful. Being a 6'3" guard, most teams in the conference only have 1 or 2 players in the rotation that can match up with him on the outside, and that's where South Dakota's Charlie Westbrook takes a hit here as well. He's the only guy who can guard Clark, so not only is he going to have to work 100x harder to get a shot attempt against the good WIU defense, he's going to have to play defense in a slow setting as well. It works both ways, and again, something South Dakota has no experience in going against. When WIU uses the zone, it's a zone again where they force you out. If you're going to get a good look from the outside, it's going to come from about 25 feet out. The one main concern I have with the zone is that their is HUGE GAPING GRAND CANYON size holes on the inside where teams can exploit it. The problem is that 90% of Summit Talent is guard-oriented, and all the fast tempo teams just don't have the experience or willingness to get the ball into the post. And that's a key here. South Dakota has played against two zones this year. Coincidentally, both came on the road, and both were wins. They won on the road at zone Canisius who gets up and down, so that's not really comparable. They also won on the road at Morehead State who plays a few different zones, but uses a full court 2-2-1 press prior to getting into the zone, so transition opportunities are there even in a slow setting. The big glaring thing that I took from both games is simple. South Dakota didn't get the ball inside on either zone and didn't make it a point to do so. They shot 47% and 56% from beyond the arc in those games and Westbrook and Krogman took exactly 45 of the 90 shots they attempted. Like I said, teams will find an advantage on the inside against this WIU zone, but they have to be willing to do so in order for that to occur. The way that WIU utilizes the guard pressure and forcing teams outside the arc is going to force both of these players into tough, deeper shots, or force someone else to beat me. And that's the difference in structure from WIU defensively to Canisius and Morehead State. So in terms of the matchups, I'm a big fan. In terms of familiarity and experience (or lack thereof), I'm another big fan. About the only thing left is trying to determine if there is anything else outside of the realm of what I've mentioned, and about the only thing I can come up with is that South Dakota's in a not-so-good spot to hit the road. They're 0-4 in the conference, and in the past week, they've dropped a conference game to Southern Utah in OT, and they followed that up two days later with a valient effort against Oral Roberts and a late surge to make the game closer than what the final actually appears. They were within 4 points late after being down by about 18 midway through the 2H. Games like that can take quite a bit out of you, and they aren't necessarily the best spots to be hitting the road in, especially against a different style of team that WIU will send out to the court. When I look at WIU, the only thing concerning is the look ahead to Oakland, but I can get past that with a team coming off a loss. Speaking of the seven point loss to IUPUI last time out, they had a few guys who were either sick with the flu, and one of them was bad enough to not even make the trip. With the loss, and the fact that the full roster should be available, I think the look ahead is cancelled out in a bounce-back setting. I'm getting a team that has what seems like a million advantages to how this game will be played, against a team that is probably in a position of not knowing what they're up against.

5* Western Illinois -8

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....They've played Western in the past on a regular basis. They knew exactly what to expect, and they struggled for the full 40 minutes. Now, bring in a team that has no familiarity, and a team that has no idea what they're up against and the struggle should be greater. Aside from the two conference games, they've held Eastern Illinois to 48 points, and held a North Dakota team who is a mirror image of this South Dakota team, and is a team who comes from that Great West Conference that I alluded to earlier to 46 points.

The thing I've really struggled with the past few years was overvaluing the WIU defense b/c a result of the low scores was more or less attributed to their style of play and lack of offense combined with the offensive system in place. Molinari coached teams really rely on defense to play a big part, and he hasn't had a team that's really been all that good defensively here at WIU, even though with the low scores it looked like he did have good defensive teams. I was projecting them to take a big step forward in that department last year, but some key injuries to some very good defensive players was a primary reason. Last year, in both the Oakland/South Dakota State games they gave up 79+ in all four meetings. A big reason for that was the absence of Ceola Clark. I had the opportunity to watch him play in a local Holiday tournament in the area a few year's back and he was matched up with Derrick Rose and held him to 9 points in the title game. He's had some injuries since, but he was the Summit League Defensive player of the year as a Sophomore, and would have been the DPOY as a junior had it not been for an injury last season at the start of conference play. With that said, it's probaby shaping up to be his award to lose again this year. He draws a lengthy guard in Charlie Westbrook, who for the past two years, has attempted at least 30% of North Dakota's shot attempts, and he's not that efficient in doing so. He's an all everything guard, scores, assists, blocks, and the main cog in making the offense work. Keep in mind, all of these #'s for shot attempts and assists and steals and everything comes in a much faster pace, and pretty much deemed useless. Let's take a look at what Clark has done this year against similar types of players on the defensive side of things:

IUPUI, Alex Young, 15 Points (Young's lowest point total aside from Louisville)

North Dakota, Troy Huff, 9 Points (He takes 32% of his team's shots, shot 3/14)

SDSTU, Nate Wolters, 17 Points (Probaby POY in conference to this point, shot 5/14 and 7 of those came from the FT line)

NDSTU, Lawrence Alexander, 16 Points (Probaby runner up for POY to this point, shot 5/14 as well)

Clark being in the lineup helps this WIU team, especially when they look to get out of the zone and force the pressure. Not only that, but he's a main weapon in the offensive system that WIU employs, and that's a part of the reason why he's so successful. Being a 6'3" guard, most teams in the conference only have 1 or 2 players in the rotation that can match up with him on the outside, and that's where South Dakota's Charlie Westbrook takes a hit here as well. He's the only guy who can guard Clark, so not only is he going to have to work 100x harder to get a shot attempt against the good WIU defense, he's going to have to play defense in a slow setting as well. It works both ways, and again, something South Dakota has no experience in going against. When WIU uses the zone, it's a zone again where they force you out. If you're going to get a good look from the outside, it's going to come from about 25 feet out. The one main concern I have with the zone is that their is HUGE GAPING GRAND CANYON size holes on the inside where teams can exploit it. The problem is that 90% of Summit Talent is guard-oriented, and all the fast tempo teams just don't have the experience or willingness to get the ball into the post. And that's a key here. South Dakota has played against two zones this year. Coincidentally, both came on the road, and both were wins. They won on the road at zone Canisius who gets up and down, so that's not really comparable. They also won on the road at Morehead State who plays a few different zones, but uses a full court 2-2-1 press prior to getting into the zone, so transition opportunities are there even in a slow setting. The big glaring thing that I took from both games is simple. South Dakota didn't get the ball inside on either zone and didn't make it a point to do so. They shot 47% and 56% from beyond the arc in those games and Westbrook and Krogman took exactly 45 of the 90 shots they attempted. Like I said, teams will find an advantage on the inside against this WIU zone, but they have to be willing to do so in order for that to occur. The way that WIU utilizes the guard pressure and forcing teams outside the arc is going to force both of these players into tough, deeper shots, or force someone else to beat me. And that's the difference in structure from WIU defensively to Canisius and Morehead State. So in terms of the matchups, I'm a big fan. In terms of familiarity and experience (or lack thereof), I'm another big fan. About the only thing left is trying to determine if there is anything else outside of the realm of what I've mentioned, and about the only thing I can come up with is that South Dakota's in a not-so-good spot to hit the road. They're 0-4 in the conference, and in the past week, they've dropped a conference game to Southern Utah in OT, and they followed that up two days later with a valient effort against Oral Roberts and a late surge to make the game closer than what the final actually appears. They were within 4 points late after being down by about 18 midway through the 2H. Games like that can take quite a bit out of you, and they aren't necessarily the best spots to be hitting the road in, especially against a different style of team that WIU will send out to the court. When I look at WIU, the only thing concerning is the look ahead to Oakland, but I can get past that with a team coming off a loss. Speaking of the seven point loss to IUPUI last time out, they had a few guys who were either sick with the flu, and one of them was bad enough to not even make the trip. With the loss, and the fact that the full roster should be available, I think the look ahead is cancelled out in a bounce-back setting. I'm getting a team that has what seems like a million advantages to how this game will be played, against a team that is probably in a position of not knowing what they're up against.

5* Western Illinois -8

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 3:41 AM ET #85

Tuesday Tidbits: One game I circled at the beginning of the year and everything has sort of set itself up to be a perfect spot with how the season has played out is the Wisconsin MKE at WMU matchup. Step #1, hope Wiscsonsin MKE over-achieves and hope WMU under-achieves. I think it's pretty safe to say that both have occurred. The reason for the interest in the game is simple. What does this game mean to Wisconsin MKE? Not a damn thing. Two weeks ago they welcomed Wisconsin into their house and while playing close, they failed. A week later they travelled to Marquette and failed. Outside of Horizon play, those were their "Super Bowls" on the season. They're currently on the end of a four game road trip having played a tough style in and at Marquette, at Valpo which was a two point victory, and most recenty at Butler, which would be their "Super Bowl" inside of the conference. How they bounce back from that loss, I am uncertain. Last year they beat Butler twice, only to fall to them in the Horizon tourney, so that was a big revenge spot this year. Other than that, the team has virtually no offense. They sometimes go minutes (by minutes I mean 6 or 7) without scoring. They don't have a go-to scorer like they've had in past years, and the real alarming thing is that while they use quite a bit of offensive sets, the majority of the scoring is coming from the PG position. Putting an emphasis on the PG within the offense can be a strength, but not necessarily a strength in a snail type of game. Along with the flat spot and not really having a reason to show up and play this one to end the roadtrip, they also have rival Green Bay on tap which I would probably qualify as a must-win in terms of being 3-1 in the Horizon and not giving up any home games the rest of the way. As for Western Michigan, they've played a brutally tough schedule. They haven't lost a game at home this year, and all 8 of their losses have come against teams that are sooooooo much more talented from an offensive standpoint than what Wisconsin MKE brings into the game here. So from that standpoint, yah, I loved Western Michigan in this spot and would have played it had it not been for a few things. First, Western Michigan is not healthy. Mike Douglas has played through shoulder pain all year and has had it pop out of place at least three times this year, and re-injured it against Duke last time out. He'll probably play, but having a guy that uses the ball on more possessions than any other player on the team go up against a physical MKE defense is a cause for concern. The Hutcheson kid also seperated his shoulder in the Duke game, and his status is up in the air. Along with that, Whitfield hasn't seen the court since early December and he's a nice offensive and defensive presence within the system. Without any or a few of these guys, the team is weak. I think with the system that WMU employs, they probably don't lose much from an offensive standpoint. They have similar guys they can throw in that can score, but they get worse from the standpoint of going against a physical and aggressive defense, and get worse defensively. The other reason I'm not playing or even leaning here is because Ball State comes on the schedule next. Ball State's about the only team WMU has to worry about on that half of the MAC this year, so there really isn't any reason to go balls out. It's possible that both teams come in here and try new things, I just can't see getting either team's best effort in this spot and best to avoid if at all possible. As for the other games: Does Creighton avoid the letdown after beating Wichita State better than the lookahead to playing Wichita State? Rice probably guards McDermott there, an interesting matchup to say the least. Thought about taking a look at UAB and Florida pointing to the under with the UAB defense neutralizing Florida's guards, and UAB's lack of offense, but UAB has Memphis on deck and it's my opinion that Florida's offense is the best in the country in the fact that they can score from anywhere at anytime. Florida's playing a ton faster than what they have in previous years where they have gone snail, so I don't think they mind slowing it here. Speaking of that pace, I want to say it's a factor of opponents wanting to get up and down against them but then I see they play a 69 possession game against both snails Texas A&M and Wright State it makes you want to dig deeper. I think the ultimate reason their pace figures are so high is that in a ton of the games they've played a slower tempo team, they've built such a big lead early that other teams have had to get out and run a bit more, thus the high # of possessions. I can't really trust UAB's offense to hang early, or else that under holds value. Thought about taking a chance on Oral Roberts at less than a possession seeing that they can pretty much do anything and everything they want to on the interior in that game, but it's just not worth it on the back end of the road trip. Speaking of, the next five days will tell us a ton about Oral Roberts as they run the Summit Gauntlet. At Oakland, two days later they get North Dakota State, and two days later they get South Dakota State. That's the hardest three-game stretch back-to-back-to-back for any squad in the Summit this year (and the funny thing is they visit Western Illinois on the road directy after it). ORU has triple revenge here, and like I've pointed out before, teams that resemble any sort of offense are going to put the hammer on Oakland every opportunity they can get. I'm not sure if doing it AT Oakland is an option, but the way Oakland has run up some of the scores the past few years is going to bite them in the ass if they don't start playing some defense.

GL

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Tuesday Tidbits: One game I circled at the beginning of the year and everything has sort of set itself up to be a perfect spot with how the season has played out is the Wisconsin MKE at WMU matchup. Step #1, hope Wiscsonsin MKE over-achieves and hope WMU under-achieves. I think it's pretty safe to say that both have occurred. The reason for the interest in the game is simple. What does this game mean to Wisconsin MKE? Not a damn thing. Two weeks ago they welcomed Wisconsin into their house and while playing close, they failed. A week later they travelled to Marquette and failed. Outside of Horizon play, those were their "Super Bowls" on the season. They're currently on the end of a four game road trip having played a tough style in and at Marquette, at Valpo which was a two point victory, and most recenty at Butler, which would be their "Super Bowl" inside of the conference. How they bounce back from that loss, I am uncertain. Last year they beat Butler twice, only to fall to them in the Horizon tourney, so that was a big revenge spot this year. Other than that, the team has virtually no offense. They sometimes go minutes (by minutes I mean 6 or 7) without scoring. They don't have a go-to scorer like they've had in past years, and the real alarming thing is that while they use quite a bit of offensive sets, the majority of the scoring is coming from the PG position. Putting an emphasis on the PG within the offense can be a strength, but not necessarily a strength in a snail type of game. Along with the flat spot and not really having a reason to show up and play this one to end the roadtrip, they also have rival Green Bay on tap which I would probably qualify as a must-win in terms of being 3-1 in the Horizon and not giving up any home games the rest of the way. As for Western Michigan, they've played a brutally tough schedule. They haven't lost a game at home this year, and all 8 of their losses have come against teams that are sooooooo much more talented from an offensive standpoint than what Wisconsin MKE brings into the game here. So from that standpoint, yah, I loved Western Michigan in this spot and would have played it had it not been for a few things. First, Western Michigan is not healthy. Mike Douglas has played through shoulder pain all year and has had it pop out of place at least three times this year, and re-injured it against Duke last time out. He'll probably play, but having a guy that uses the ball on more possessions than any other player on the team go up against a physical MKE defense is a cause for concern. The Hutcheson kid also seperated his shoulder in the Duke game, and his status is up in the air. Along with that, Whitfield hasn't seen the court since early December and he's a nice offensive and defensive presence within the system. Without any or a few of these guys, the team is weak. I think with the system that WMU employs, they probably don't lose much from an offensive standpoint. They have similar guys they can throw in that can score, but they get worse from the standpoint of going against a physical and aggressive defense, and get worse defensively. The other reason I'm not playing or even leaning here is because Ball State comes on the schedule next. Ball State's about the only team WMU has to worry about on that half of the MAC this year, so there really isn't any reason to go balls out. It's possible that both teams come in here and try new things, I just can't see getting either team's best effort in this spot and best to avoid if at all possible. As for the other games: Does Creighton avoid the letdown after beating Wichita State better than the lookahead to playing Wichita State? Rice probably guards McDermott there, an interesting matchup to say the least. Thought about taking a look at UAB and Florida pointing to the under with the UAB defense neutralizing Florida's guards, and UAB's lack of offense, but UAB has Memphis on deck and it's my opinion that Florida's offense is the best in the country in the fact that they can score from anywhere at anytime. Florida's playing a ton faster than what they have in previous years where they have gone snail, so I don't think they mind slowing it here. Speaking of that pace, I want to say it's a factor of opponents wanting to get up and down against them but then I see they play a 69 possession game against both snails Texas A&M and Wright State it makes you want to dig deeper. I think the ultimate reason their pace figures are so high is that in a ton of the games they've played a slower tempo team, they've built such a big lead early that other teams have had to get out and run a bit more, thus the high # of possessions. I can't really trust UAB's offense to hang early, or else that under holds value. Thought about taking a chance on Oral Roberts at less than a possession seeing that they can pretty much do anything and everything they want to on the interior in that game, but it's just not worth it on the back end of the road trip. Speaking of, the next five days will tell us a ton about Oral Roberts as they run the Summit Gauntlet. At Oakland, two days later they get North Dakota State, and two days later they get South Dakota State. That's the hardest three-game stretch back-to-back-to-back for any squad in the Summit this year (and the funny thing is they visit Western Illinois on the road directy after it). ORU has triple revenge here, and like I've pointed out before, teams that resemble any sort of offense are going to put the hammer on Oakland every opportunity they can get. I'm not sure if doing it AT Oakland is an option, but the way Oakland has run up some of the scores the past few years is going to bite them in the ass if they don't start playing some defense.

GL

phurrr-dimes

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 7

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 4:03 AM ET #86

Solid with the writeup as always. Curious as to your thoughts on the total in the WIU game.

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Encore

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 596

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 4:06 AM ET #87

Swing shift on the unit count for January.

Sweet.

0

Encore

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 596

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 4:33 AM ET #88

P.S. Turnovers in the Delaware game had extra special meaning today.

0

Fools_Gold

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 958

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 4:50 AM ET #89

any thoughts on Lou-St Johns UNDER 133?

I feel w/ Lousivilles excellent D, ball control, off back-to-back losses; plus the fact that the Johnnies aint nothing to write home about offensively... I see this game played in the 60s... like 64-58 Lou

good luck!!

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capskip

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 33526

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 9:27 AM ET #90

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npearl

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 1839

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 9:48 AM ET #91

Very good work, nropp

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mariner24

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 2388

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 10:08 AM ET #92

nice , do you also like the under in the south dakota game?

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dmfan21

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 611

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 10:42 AM ET #93

never thanked you for yesterday's win but much appreciation... great write up today...

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 12:58 PM ET #94

Quote Originally Posted by phurrr-dimes:

Solid with the writeup as always. Curious as to your thoughts on the total in the WIU game.

Would probably point to the under, but risky to the point that if WIU builds a lead, the pace probably picks up a bit.

GL

0

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 1:00 PM ET #95

Quote Originally Posted by Encore:

P.S. Turnovers in the Delaware game had extra special meaning today.

two teams combined for 9 turnovers

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 1:07 PM ET #96

Quote Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:

any thoughts on Lou-St Johns UNDER 133?

I feel w/ Lousivilles excellent D, ball control, off back-to-back losses; plus the fact that the Johnnies aint nothing to write home about offensively... I see this game played in the 60s... like 64-58 Lou

good luck!!

The thing with Louisville's last two losses; it's really come down to a lack of offense at times. Wouldn't be surprised to see Pitino let them play with a bit more freedom and get up and down a bit more. Pace will be there for an over. Need some defense out of St. John's for this to stay under probably.

GL

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riccio14

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 1391

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 1:16 PM ET #97

Wow, great write-up Neil on the South Dakota / Western Illinois game. If I had seen this earlier, I could have cut and pasted some of these points into my under write-up on this game today.

GL

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Sunshine7

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 888

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 1:25 PM ET #98

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

two teams combined for 9 turnovers

I watched the game in full.

Impressed with UNCW's ability to post-up in a position to score. All too often, entry passes into the paint lead to a kick back out/reset...not the case here, UNC's guards delivered the ball inside with a purpose.

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catera123

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 1233

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 1:34 PM ET #99

0

pjrez

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 4043

Posted: Jan. 3, 2012 - 2:04 PM ET #100

0

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