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Grover15

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 1964

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 11:58 AM ET #426

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ROOK44

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 994

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 11:59 AM ET #427

Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:

Apparently you didn't understand the "short run" part......

why post these useless posts

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:05 PM ET #428

Quote Originally Posted by ROOK44:

iI remember u tellin us that ark st was def a bowl play for u. when u get a chance could u explain to us ur reasoning for that play. thx in advance. u da man

gl

Arky State's familiarity with playing styles that NIU brings to the table, along with NIU's struggles to defend Spread offenses w/ a mix of the read option. Think I'm getting the better defense too.

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Goggles-Pisano

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 2693

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:06 PM ET #429

Niel

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PLAYAAAA1969

All-Star

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 10147

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:14 PM ET #430

Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:

Butler as a 5*? Wow... GL. If anything, I leaned Detroit at home....but GL

I would make Butler a 20* w this Moron on Detroit

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Sabanade

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 1962

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:20 PM ET #431

Quote Originally Posted by PLAYAAAA1969:

I would make Butler a 20* w this Moron on Detroit

I tell you what, playaaa, lets you and I start a thread with just our picks today and see who comes out with better record. Let me know when you are ready

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:22 PM ET #432

Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:

Butler as a 5*? Wow... GL. If anything, I leaned Detroit at home....but GL

Nothing wrong with liking Detroit today at home, but I don't. Did you know since McCallum stepped foot on campus to lead the Detroit coaching staff in 2008, he's only beaten one top 100 defense? That came in a revenge spot towards the end of last year, a three point victory over Cleveland State. That's the only time. McCallum has never beaten Butler, been close, but has never gotten over the hump. This is a pretty big game for Detroit, probably one that they had circled coming into the year as the stepping stone to a Horizon title. The problem? They just haven't looked the same without Minnerath. Eli Holman has rejoined the team, but he's not getting the ball enough, and they have no depth. They're coming off a home loss at the buzzer to Valpo just two days ago, so not sure the focus and prep is going to be 100% there. Within the Horizon, much of the success of Butler can be greatly attributed to how Stephens has recruited. Year in and Year Out, he always has a guard who can shut down the other teams best guard, and he always has a post presence to make scoring in the post tough at times. This year, he has those two in Nored and Smith. Nored will more than likely take the task of guarding McCallum, whom he held to 11 and 3 in both games last year. Smith will have the task of defending Holman, who hasn't started a game but is playing the majority of the minutes in the post. Now, Butler's offense has been pretty bad, but they've now played eight straight games against top 100 defenses. They went west, they came home, and while it hasn't been pretty, they've been successful slowing the tempo, and winning games based solely on their defense. Ten of their 16 games this year have come against top 100 defenses, in fact. They have the chance to win this game based on defense alone with the matchups that I've listed here, but it's also a game where their offense probably gets a big boost. The way Detroit defends the guards and the way they rarely use any pressure on the wings will open up a whole new ballgame for Butler here. In last year's meetings, I saw a 71 possession game and a 61 possession game, so not too worried whether this one is played fast or slow. I like my chances with this defense, and if a player outside of Holman and McCallum can step up and beat me, then I'm OK with taking a loss here. Detroit's just a totally different team without Minnerath, and generally when going up against Butler, you're going to have to shoot a good percentage from beyond the arc, and Minnerath was their best shooter (not sure they have anyone else). Game comes down to how well Butler plays offensively obviously, and against a defense that just doesn't pressure, this is usually one of those spots that Brad Stevens carves up. From a numbers standpoint, this is the 3rd worst defense they will have played this year (they scored 71 and 77 those games, coincidentally their season high's). From a scheme standpoint, this is the worst they'll face. Tough to win on the road, but I like my chances here with the defensive matchups.

GL

0

Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:

Butler as a 5*? Wow... GL. If anything, I leaned Detroit at home....but GL

Nothing wrong with liking Detroit today at home, but I don't. Did you know since McCallum stepped foot on campus to lead the Detroit coaching staff in 2008, he's only beaten one top 100 defense? That came in a revenge spot towards the end of last year, a three point victory over Cleveland State. That's the only time. McCallum has never beaten Butler, been close, but has never gotten over the hump. This is a pretty big game for Detroit, probably one that they had circled coming into the year as the stepping stone to a Horizon title. The problem? They just haven't looked the same without Minnerath. Eli Holman has rejoined the team, but he's not getting the ball enough, and they have no depth. They're coming off a home loss at the buzzer to Valpo just two days ago, so not sure the focus and prep is going to be 100% there. Within the Horizon, much of the success of Butler can be greatly attributed to how Stephens has recruited. Year in and Year Out, he always has a guard who can shut down the other teams best guard, and he always has a post presence to make scoring in the post tough at times. This year, he has those two in Nored and Smith. Nored will more than likely take the task of guarding McCallum, whom he held to 11 and 3 in both games last year. Smith will have the task of defending Holman, who hasn't started a game but is playing the majority of the minutes in the post. Now, Butler's offense has been pretty bad, but they've now played eight straight games against top 100 defenses. They went west, they came home, and while it hasn't been pretty, they've been successful slowing the tempo, and winning games based solely on their defense. Ten of their 16 games this year have come against top 100 defenses, in fact. They have the chance to win this game based on defense alone with the matchups that I've listed here, but it's also a game where their offense probably gets a big boost. The way Detroit defends the guards and the way they rarely use any pressure on the wings will open up a whole new ballgame for Butler here. In last year's meetings, I saw a 71 possession game and a 61 possession game, so not too worried whether this one is played fast or slow. I like my chances with this defense, and if a player outside of Holman and McCallum can step up and beat me, then I'm OK with taking a loss here. Detroit's just a totally different team without Minnerath, and generally when going up against Butler, you're going to have to shoot a good percentage from beyond the arc, and Minnerath was their best shooter (not sure they have anyone else). Game comes down to how well Butler plays offensively obviously, and against a defense that just doesn't pressure, this is usually one of those spots that Brad Stevens carves up. From a numbers standpoint, this is the 3rd worst defense they will have played this year (they scored 71 and 77 those games, coincidentally their season high's). From a scheme standpoint, this is the worst they'll face. Tough to win on the road, but I like my chances here with the defensive matchups.

GL

alabamam25

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 1182

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:23 PM ET #433

hey neil wisconsin or michigan

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nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:26 PM ET #434

Quote Originally Posted by alabamam25:

hey neil wisconsin or michigan

Two teams that rely on the three point shot quite a bit. Couldn't find value as to who was going to make them. Flip a coin.

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Sabanade

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 1962

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:38 PM ET #435

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Nothing wrong with liking Detroit today at home, but I don't. Did you know since McCallum stepped foot on campus to lead the Detroit coaching staff in 2008, he's only beaten one top 100 defense? That came in a revenge spot towards the end of last year, a three point victory over Cleveland State. That's the only time. McCallum has never beaten Butler, been close, but has never gotten over the hump. This is a pretty big game for Detroit, probably one that they had circled coming into the year as the stepping stone to a Horizon title. The problem? They just haven't looked the same without Minnerath. Eli Holman has rejoined the team, but he's not getting the ball enough, and they have no depth. They're coming off a home loss at the buzzer to Valpo just two days ago, so not sure the focus and prep is going to be 100% there. Within the Horizon, much of the success of Butler can be greatly attributed to how Stephens has recruited. Year in and Year Out, he always has a guard who can shut down the other teams best guard, and he always has a post presence to make scoring in the post tough at times. This year, he has those two in Nored and Smith. Nored will more than likely take the task of guarding McCallum, whom he held to 11 and 3 in both games last year. Smith will have the task of defending Holman, who hasn't started a game but is playing the majority of the minutes in the post. Now, Butler's offense has been pretty bad, but they've now played eight straight games against top 100 defenses. They went west, they came home, and while it hasn't been pretty, they've been successful slowing the tempo, and winning games based solely on their defense. Ten of their 16 games this year have come against top 100 defenses, in fact. They have the chance to win this game based on defense alone with the matchups that I've listed here, but it's also a game where their offense probably gets a big boost. The way Detroit defends the guards and the way they rarely use any pressure on the wings will open up a whole new ballgame for Butler here. In last year's meetings, I saw a 71 possession game and a 61 possession game, so not too worried whether this one is played fast or slow. I like my chances with this defense, and if a player outside of Holman and McCallum can step up and beat me, then I'm OK with taking a loss here. Detroit's just a totally different team without Minnerath, and generally when going up against Butler, you're going to have to shoot a good percentage from beyond the arc, and Minnerath was their best shooter (not sure they have anyone else). Game comes down to how well Butler plays offensively obviously, and against a defense that just doesn't pressure, this is usually one of those spots that Brad Stevens carves up. From a numbers standpoint, this is the 3rd worst defense they will have played this year (they scored 71 and 77 those games, coincidentally their season high's). From a scheme standpoint, this is the worst they'll face. Tough to win on the road, but I like my chances here with the defensive matchups.

GL

Yes, no one knows how Detroit will respond to losing to Valpo at the buzzer, but I expect them to use this game to be their statement game going forward. Butler Butler barely squeaked one out by 1 at Wright State on Friday on a free throw by Nored with 0:02.7 remaining..... and have won their last 5 by an average of 3.2 pts.

Again, Butler could pull out another one....but this is one I will be be watching from the sidelines. Certainly not a 5* on either team in my estimation. But again, GL on your pick.

0

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

Nothing wrong with liking Detroit today at home, but I don't. Did you know since McCallum stepped foot on campus to lead the Detroit coaching staff in 2008, he's only beaten one top 100 defense? That came in a revenge spot towards the end of last year, a three point victory over Cleveland State. That's the only time. McCallum has never beaten Butler, been close, but has never gotten over the hump. This is a pretty big game for Detroit, probably one that they had circled coming into the year as the stepping stone to a Horizon title. The problem? They just haven't looked the same without Minnerath. Eli Holman has rejoined the team, but he's not getting the ball enough, and they have no depth. They're coming off a home loss at the buzzer to Valpo just two days ago, so not sure the focus and prep is going to be 100% there. Within the Horizon, much of the success of Butler can be greatly attributed to how Stephens has recruited. Year in and Year Out, he always has a guard who can shut down the other teams best guard, and he always has a post presence to make scoring in the post tough at times. This year, he has those two in Nored and Smith. Nored will more than likely take the task of guarding McCallum, whom he held to 11 and 3 in both games last year. Smith will have the task of defending Holman, who hasn't started a game but is playing the majority of the minutes in the post. Now, Butler's offense has been pretty bad, but they've now played eight straight games against top 100 defenses. They went west, they came home, and while it hasn't been pretty, they've been successful slowing the tempo, and winning games based solely on their defense. Ten of their 16 games this year have come against top 100 defenses, in fact. They have the chance to win this game based on defense alone with the matchups that I've listed here, but it's also a game where their offense probably gets a big boost. The way Detroit defends the guards and the way they rarely use any pressure on the wings will open up a whole new ballgame for Butler here. In last year's meetings, I saw a 71 possession game and a 61 possession game, so not too worried whether this one is played fast or slow. I like my chances with this defense, and if a player outside of Holman and McCallum can step up and beat me, then I'm OK with taking a loss here. Detroit's just a totally different team without Minnerath, and generally when going up against Butler, you're going to have to shoot a good percentage from beyond the arc, and Minnerath was their best shooter (not sure they have anyone else). Game comes down to how well Butler plays offensively obviously, and against a defense that just doesn't pressure, this is usually one of those spots that Brad Stevens carves up. From a numbers standpoint, this is the 3rd worst defense they will have played this year (they scored 71 and 77 those games, coincidentally their season high's). From a scheme standpoint, this is the worst they'll face. Tough to win on the road, but I like my chances here with the defensive matchups.

GL

Yes, no one knows how Detroit will respond to losing to Valpo at the buzzer, but I expect them to use this game to be their statement game going forward. Butler Butler barely squeaked one out by 1 at Wright State on Friday on a free throw by Nored with 0:02.7 remaining..... and have won their last 5 by an average of 3.2 pts.

Again, Butler could pull out another one....but this is one I will be be watching from the sidelines. Certainly not a 5* on either team in my estimation. But again, GL on your pick.

nropp11

Captain

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 7963

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:38 PM ET #436

Sunday Leans:

Iona/Marist Over 165.5

Columbia/Elon Over 125

Umass/Lasalle Over 148.5

Valpo -1

Drexel -1

GL

0

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54708

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 12:42 PM ET #437

Great stuff man. Glad I can read some quality stuff daily. Agree on Butler.

Kinda diggin Wright St and the U128.5 because as mentioned before Valpo is coming off the buzzer beater.....Thoughts?

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bullmoose

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 2326

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 1:00 PM ET #438

can manhattan protect the homecourt vs fairfield

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Oscarxena

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 1575

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:47 PM ET #439

Nropp, rare to get Butler as a underdog in Horizon League play, in fact they have been favored in all four so far this year. Yes, they are 0-3-1 ATS in the Horizon League this year but I like them getting points here. Detroit has been a major disappointment and while the Titans need this game they are only 1-4 in conference against the 8th toughest schedule (HL) while Butler is 3-1 against the 5th toughest HL schedule. The game might win or lose, but I'm Butler with you, good luck buddy and thanks for sharing your writeups.

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Erco777

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 17

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 4:41 PM ET #440

I know its early, but Butler is not looking good. What are your thoughts Nroop?

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sscoach

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 1072

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 5:37 PM ET #441

Butler a loser! Bring on Monday!

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wiggy24

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 41

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 5:30 AM ET #442

Where can I find a consensus % for any given play?

Not just for covers users but for everyone betting on all sites and in vegas.

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clem1

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 380

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 7:14 AM ET #443

Quote Originally Posted by wiggy24:

Where can I find a consensus % for any given play?

Not just for covers users but for everyone betting on all sites and in vegas.

vegasinsider.com

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bafongue1

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 241

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 7:30 AM ET #444

Quote Originally Posted by Sabanade:

Yes, no one knows how Detroit will respond to losing to Valpo at the buzzer, but I expect them to use this game to be their statement game going forward. Butler Butler barely squeaked one out by 1 at Wright State on Friday on a free throw by Nored with 0:02.7 remaining..... and have won their last 5 by an average of 3.2 pts.

Again, Butler could pull out another one....but this is one I will be be watching from the sidelines. Certainly not a 5* on either team in my estimation. But again, GL on your pick.

Sabande I normally dont change my bet but I did here Based on what you wrote I had to jump on detroit

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GiLmo574

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 21804

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 11:12 AM ET #445

Quote Originally Posted by bafongue1:

Sabande I normally dont change my bet but I did here Based on what you wrote I had to jump on detroit

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sharpstick

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 8525

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 11:16 AM ET #446

Quote Originally Posted by GiLmo574:

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Bobcat36

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 1531

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 12:08 PM ET #447

Quote Originally Posted by clem1:

vegasinsider.com

I for one, wouldn't count on them to provide you with accurate numbers.

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bafongue1

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 241

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 1:11 PM ET #448

Quote Originally Posted by GiLmo574:

haha lol u irish mofoes is funny!!

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bigbozo

Prospect

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 457

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 3:00 PM ET #449

Nropp, I went over all your totals for Nov and Dec including leans. You were 61-73 for overs and 66-56 for unders, so be careful if you make those 5* as that is not where you are at your best. My suggestion is stick to unders where you are much better.( From 120-139 for example, you were 42-28, and with overs just 39-48). This is was a good sample and took some time, so hope this helps you with your totals. Thank you for sharing your work each day.

0

GiLmo574

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 21804

Posted: Jan. 9, 2012 - 3:06 PM ET #450

Quote Originally Posted by bafongue1:

haha lol u irish mofoes is funny!!

0

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