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January Hoops

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Legend
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Posted: #226
houston OT
 
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Posted: #227
Simmons could have closed the game for Hoston with 1 second let on the clock...unfortunately missed his 2nd FT to send it into OT...

a few more minutes to go...
 
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Posted: #228
damn, didn't realize he could've won it
 
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Posted: #229
Two days of thanks sir... western ill yesterday and rice over today... you are truly a blessing... i blow on my own picks but you always seem to bring me back from the dead... All Good Wishes To You!
 
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Posted: #230
7 secs to go and tied once again
 
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Posted: #231
Foul on Tulsa no time left on clock
 
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Posted: #232
cha ching
 
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Posted: #233
Houston wins.....great call Neil

congrats to ML backers as well

 
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Posted: #234
awesome night again. 

keep up the hard work
 
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Posted: #235
chix dinner,  Great work Nropp!!
 
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Posted: #236

Awesome picks as usual....

 
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Posted: #237

 
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Posted: #238
 
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Posted: #239

Nice picks nropp!

 

 
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Posted: #240
 
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Posted: #241
Congrats on another great night! Your excellent knowledge and research is impressive!
 
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Posted: #242
great job wow
 
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Posted: #243
Thanks Neil 
 
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Posted: #244
Great work man.
 
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Posted: #245

Mahalos Neil

 

 
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Posted: #246
Nice to see you reaping the rewards of the incredible amount of consistent effort you have invested in this forum...You truly deserve it...Not to mention how courteous you are handling all the inquiries in your threads while capping games...Like today...Stay focused and enjoy.

                                     
 
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Posted: #247
Neil, you Truly are a Hancicapping God for College Hoops! I so impressed and thankful as usual for great insight and in depth write-ups! What your doing now really is working! Bravo my friend. For you doing this as a hobby while you work your real job is even more impressive! Again - I am truly appreciative of you being on Covers. 
 
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Posted: #248

  Loving the new approach.  Keep rolling my man....

 
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Posted: #249
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 5-0, +25.00
January Leans: 2-3


Thursday


I've been waiting for a spot to utilize Samford in a conference game and I think I got it. Appalachian State has made the most of their opportunities in recent meetings against Samford primarily because of Donald Sims ability to shred the zone. He was about as consistent as they come and Samford could never stop him. He's now gone, and that role has now turned over to Omar Carter, but he doesn't have the same ability from the outside. He's more of a slasher/scorer type and he's had a rough year. As he goes, Appy State goes. Other than that, they have a few really big bodies on the inside in Butts and Williamson, who've been around the team for what seems like an eternity. Not really having an outside scorer is going to hurt Appy State here in this matchup, but it's not the only thing. For the better part of the last month, Samford has actually gotten away from playing a zone. They've gone more man-to-man, with a much better emphasis on help defense, and while it hasn't paid dividends quite yet against a tough out of conference schedule, it should pay dividends against some teams in this conference. By going to the man defense, teams have to prepare entirely different than what they have in the past, and the advantages that teams have had in the past finding holes in the zone and penetrating out and kicking really aren't there anymore. Along those same lines, they've modified the princeton, and by modified it, I mean, they're running so many more different sets out of it and at a faster pace, and that's where Appy State's at a pretty big disadvantage. They don't really defend all that well against a base offense, they don't force turnovers, they just look to stay with their guy and put little to zero emphasis on help defense. This is why their defensive style has worked against Samford in the past. Samford would take the air out of the ball, get down to about 10 on the shotclock, and get the next best shot available. It's really easy to defend when you don't have to guard the paint or expect anything in the first 25 seconds of the shotclock. If you don't have help defense against this version of the princeton, then there is a good chance you're outmatched. What do I expect? For starters, Samford's going chuck the three-ball. It's a dangerous proposition backing a team that's going to shoot it that much, b/c if they miss a majority, they're toast. But, I'm going to invest here, and here's why. First, Appy State doesn't have the consistent scorer to offset any run Samford goes on. That's simple to figure out. Second, Samford's version of this offense puts a heavy emphasis on bringing the bigs out to the perimeter for some easy shots, and if the shot isn't there, then they're reversing the ball and making a cut to the hoop. As I mentioned before, Appy State's bigs from a defensive standpoint rarely come out of the paint, but they'll be forced to here. Samford's offense in the past really didn't bring the bigs out much, but now they're doing it more than ever. It opens up not only a mismatch on the outside by bringing the bigger defender out, but it's going to cause some problems for the defense by spreading them out, and making a back cut here or there. These Appy Bigs can't go all over the court and guard the Samford bigs. The theme of the night is probably three's and layups, and the amount of open looks from both of those spots against a defense that just isn't discipline should be there. If by chance Samford goes back to the zone to offset the bulkiness of Appy State's interior, then I'm fine with that too b/c Appy will have to beat me from the outside. On paper, it would appear that Appy State has many advantages here, but when you apply the systems, both new and old, I'm just not sure how they go on the road and get a win, also noting they're coming off a BCS school, and have Chattanooga on deck who won that half of the SoCon last year. Capel's the type of coach that will just try to outscore you, and that method should not work against this style. Again, I'm going to need Samford to hit some shots, I'm aware of that, but it should come easy. Appalachian State just hasn't had the experience of going against it. Rather than knowing what the opponent is going to do on a possession by possession basis, they'll have to guard for a full forty minutes now. Does the post pop for a 3? Or is the post popping to fake the three and pass it in for a layup? It's a nightmare to defend, and my guess is Appy State isn't ready for it, and if they aren't ready for it from the start, then the scoring in the paint is going to leave the perimeter open and vice-versa. 

5* Samford +1
 
 
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Posted: #250
Happen to catch Towson score 27 points in a game yesterday? Well, that's NC Greensboro's only D-1 win, and they were tied at the half with them in that game. All kidding aside, NC Greensboro's a mess. Coach Dement resigned ten games in. He was a zone type of guy. They replaced him with Wes Miller, who hasn't played a lick of zone since taking over. On paper, it's looked like a good thing, but the defense isn't really built to defend the interior so it's my assumption that they'll have to go back to it when they face a decent offensive presence down low, and that's what Davidson brings in here. Just to point out, I'm OK with Greensboro going zone (for reference, check how Elon did against it, and the Davidson offense is 100x better), and I'm perfectly OK with Greensboro not going zone, b/c Davidson can get any shot they want on the Greensboro man-to-man. You see, NC Greensboro has given up 70+ in ever game this year, except for Towson, where they gave up 60. Yes, Towson scored 60 points and it's only happened twice on the year. More importantly, since switching to the man to man, they haven't given up anything less than 78. Teams are scoring whereever they want, whenever they want, and UNC Greensboro's best method of trying to combat that is to outscore the opponent. Offensively, Greensboro has one player. He takes 37% of their shots. He shoots less than 37% from the field. That's about it. They look to score in transition, and they get many transition opportunities b/c the opponent usually makes a basket and they're able to get the ball out of the net and go. Now, for the basis of the play. Davidson was one of the hottest teams in the country towards the end of the year last year and I can't really explain what happened, but they lost the opening round of the Southern Conference Tournament to none other than this same NC Greensboro team. Under Dement, Greensboro utilized a zone that forced Davidson away from the three-point line  and forced some dumb shots. Let's take a look at a few numbers from the game.

1) Davidson attempted 25 more shots than NC Greensboro.
2) Davidson had 17 offensive rebounds in the 1H and scored 2 points off of those rebounds.
3) Davidson shot 24% from the field (18/75).

Davidson lost by 7 as an -11 point favorite.

Game's been on their calendar for revenge. It's possible the reason they let down at the end of the Penn game was because they knew what was on deck here. This offense is far too good to shoot 24%, either from the field or the three-point line. As I mentioned, in that game they faced a zone they weren't familiar with and they launched 34 three-pointers, only making 8 of them. They got complacent, they were on a roll in terms of winning games, and they thought they could show up, shoot, and win. Obviously, they were wrong. For the year this year, they've had practice against a similar zone if NC Greensboro decides to go back to it (similar to Richmond's style). I think Davidson's offense has improved greatly with another year in the system, and the defense has improved even better. Davidson's better at every spot. They're big enough at the guard spot to contain Simpson, not that he's going to hurt much if he continues to put up a bad percentage. The biggest thing I need from Davidson is just a reason to show up. And last year's loss in the Conference Tourney should be motivation enough to do just that. 

Lean: Davidson -11

I was hoping for a higher # that what this opened at, but it is what it is. This stems from a few things, primarily offseason work. Both teams lost a bit of scoring, but both teams also returned quite a bit of youth. When you return freshman and sophomores who all that aren't talented from an offensive perspective, you're not really going to get improvement on that side of the ball, and the greatest improvement will come on the defensive side of the ball. And I think that's what we're seeing with both teams this year. From a ranking standpoint, both teams defenses are probably performing better than the offenses in the current state. I say probably, because North Texas' numbers are the opposite at the present moment. However, their defensive #'s don't take into account their best interior defender in Tony Mitchell only playing the six games after the semester break. Much has been made about how he was a great recruit, but it's his defense that sets him apart from others and his offense is in need of some work. Now, for the basis of the play. These two teams' guards can't shoot. They don't attempt to shoot from the perimeter, and it's rare that either team forces a shot before pounding the ball in the post. It's a given that both teams want to get the ball in the post on a regular basis. When the ball don't go in the post, more than likely one of the guards is going to iso and try to get to the rim, or at the very least draw a foul. Both teams' guards are a bunch of slashers and you just don't see much passing into a jump shot or passing into any kind of shot with a rhythm. These two teams just aren't built like that. With South Alabama, Ronnie Arrow has gone to his old method of slowing the tempo with young players, and using his post players on the offensive side of the ball to his advantage, most notably their best offensive and defensive player in Rubit. Again, like UNT, South Alabama's strength is defending the interior, and they do a good job of it, even as small as they are, they play a really physical brand of basketball down low. And thats why I point under here. Both coaches know that they need to get the ball inside b/c they can't shoot from the perimeter. Both coaches have shown nothing different on the year, and they don't really have another option. When they get it in the post, now what? Tony Mitchell's presence and size in the paint pretty much negates at least half of the USA inside game, and USA has three players that are currently in the top 450 in terms of block percentage, thus giving UNT a hard time. When they don't attempt a shot from the post, then you got a bunch of guards who aren't going to shoot the ball from the outside, and would much rather take their chances getting into the paint and attempting a shot, which again, plays right into both defenses and what they want you to do. Now, if you look at the past few meetings between the two, you see lined games in the mid to upper 140's, and that's because these teams were so guard oriented and had multiple players that can score. The philosophies have changed, and even North Texas is playing a totally different style since getting Mitchell involved. It's pretty simple. Both teams look to score on the inside, while both teams look to defend the inside. If either team can get hot from the outside, then this one is dead, but I just don't see it happening.

Lean: North Texas/South Alabama Under 134
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