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Last2thirst NCAAB Season Thread

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Posted: #201
New day , New Opportunity . Good Luck Today , Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

New day , New Opportunity . Good Luck Today , Bud

Ya.....1 big step forward,.2-3 small steps back it seems. I am usually killer with NCAAB but the schizo nature of teams this year....win by 15-30 pts and then lose by 10-20 to weaker teams has me totally baffled.

I am about to establish my final Tier system that I will adjust heading into March Madness. Conference play in January gives one a great feel for whats going on, and of course, I look at my notes from last year in this month to see if the same things line up. I would say that we are one month sooner for the wackiness that one witnesses with top teams playing lesser. Some coaches may be trying to tighten up their teams mentally a lot sooner with experimentation and different rotations......its gets the young mind questioning their role and therefore working harder in practice. I used to coach high level and this was always a tactic that I used. It just depended upon whether I used it 6 weeks before a Championship run, or 2 weeks before. Often, with great teams that I had, I would have them hit the weights with a vengeance and do fast twitch step drills and circuits almost exclusively in the afternoon sessions, and fine shooting or plays in the morning....then taper almost completely for 4-5 days....it was like they were ready to break the door down wanting to play and showoff their new-found strength and athleticism.

Worked most of the time.....maybe some teams are doing this so the players are off in their shooting. Doing this tends to throw them off on fine motor temporarily but the strength/agility basing is worth it because they will need that to endure playing through conference finals and every other day with tourney of March madness
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Posted: #203
Thurs Plays:

Morehead St.  +17 (2U)....scan their losses.....most  are tight games and lost by 16 IN BUTLER....Murray St. is no Butler at home!!

UNCW  -3.5  (2U)...record is not good but that last win was very impressive and they are playing a pukey team...home + confidence is a winning combo that is hard to ignore

Texas Arlington +3....(5U) ...this is a spot!! This team beat BYU by a lot @ BYU....wow....hung with Creighton on the road and made it close....wow.....and only lost by 1 to Alabama on the road.
That is tough road playing at 3 very tough homecourts!!

Will have some more later.....

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Posted: #204
Texas St.  +7.5....Best player and PG likely out for G.South
UTEP       +14.5...feel bet....don't think UAB will respect them 
Penn St.   +10  .....have the type of team and key player to keep it close as the evidence shows on the road vs tough teams...usually within 7 pts in their losses

Green Bay -5 (3U)...how bad is GB?....we will know after this game if they lost to ClevSt on the road and can't win by more than 5 on homecourt vs. a truly awful opponent (will lay off GB for rest of season if they don't cover!!)

UCLA         -15
Arizona St. -8 (2U)....love this team and have laid off them for 5 games and now I am back on their horse because I think they have turned the corner on the funk they were in....I believe Utah does not match up well with them this year

Portland  +22
BYU        +9

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Posted: #205
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #206
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:


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Posted: #207
Morehead St.  +17 (2U)     

UNCW  -3.5           (2U)       ...half point loss

Texas Arlington +3....(5U)    ...was in control for 32 minutes!!

Texas St.  +7.5                  
UTEP       +14.5            
Penn St.   +10               

Green Bay -5 (3U)       

UCLA         -15
Arizona St. -8 (2U)

Portland  +22
BYU        +9

5-2 with 4 plays to go.....+1 Unit
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Posted: #208
Late final results:

UCLA         -15         
Arizona St. -8 (2U)   

Portland  +22             
BYU        +9               

....aye yay yay....

6 - 5 ...-2 Units

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Posted: #209
Like your thinking 
 
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Posted: #210
Saturday: Pressing day and being very selective....double up system is going to be in effect!

Game#1:

GB  -5  (4U)....Youngstown cannot hit a free throw and have a terribly ranked defense....not a good combo vs a team that can play defense, is @ home and is ranked 37th at the line....and is ranked in the 30's for offensive rebounding.....who will get the calls and benefit from the refs? Home team
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Posted: #211
Good Luck Today , Bud  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #212
If GB is rolling at the half......I will make this next play for 4 UNITS:

Going to watch the DUKE/VIRGINIA game....some thoughts:

-yes Virginia has an amazing defense and this might be one of their most exciting teams in years, and they have had quite a few, the higher ranking does not sit well with a DUKE team that might have the most talent that I have seen them have in a while and thats saying a lot....Grayson Allen is surrounded by some great talent that he can utilize or exploit when that talent gets double teamed

-Virginia has only played one Top 10 calibre team and on the road at WVU, they got schooled 68-61 which tells me their defense is not the stopper that they portray themselves to be, and Duke is another step up in offensive ability from WVU with homecourt!!

I think I have just talked myself into a play.....if GB is leading by 6 or more at the half, this is a 4 UNIT play, and if GB is less, it becomes a 2 UNIT play that I double with something else later in the day,.....(Duke -4.5)
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Posted: #213
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Good Luck Today , Bud  

U2 Wise.....what do you make of the Duke -Virginia game?....always interested in your analysis or take on a game
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Posted: #214
Another game that I raise a Spockian eyebrow to the line

Who has a better basketball conference? Big12 or SEC? Selective your top 5 Big12 and do the same for SEC.......

Now, would Oklahoma fall into your Top 5? Would Texas fall into your Top 5 in the Big12? Would Alabama fall into your Top 5 in SEC?

On a neutral court, Texas destroyed Alabama 66-50...
 
If GB loses the cover, this is my (8 Unit double up, otherwise, put me down for 4 UNITS to start a new double up)
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Posted: #215
3 pm game; ULL -10.5......awesome home team, statitstically superior in every category, on a major winning run and its a revenge game from last year!

Play sequence.....re- jigged

1pm game....GB 4U.....double up play is ULL -10.5 at 3pm (will play up to -11, if not, I will find another candidate)....if GB covers...ULL 2U

2pm game...Duke -4.5 2U...double up play is TBD (BET done)

215pm game...Oklahoma -1  4U...double up play is TBD (BET)

3pm game....ULL  (-10 to -11) 2U or 8U....TBD  (not BET)

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Posted: #216
2pm game...Duke -4.5 2U...double up play is TBD (BET done)....

Double up found......taking TCU -4 @ Vandy for 4U if Duke loses and 2U if Duke wins!
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Posted: #217
215pm game...Oklahoma -1  4U...double up play is TBD (BET)

.....found a Double-up candidate @4pm.....taking San Diego -2.5 for 2U on its own if Sooners win, or 8U if Oklahoma loses
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Posted: #218
6pm game candidate for Double-up......lean Harvard/Brown Under 129....going to research this game well. Both played last night! TBD
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Posted: #219
2pm game...Texas -5.5 2U...double up play is TBD (BET done)....

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Posted: #220
Butler -8  (1U)....action play....Shamir Ponds is wonky for St. Johns...one of the best players in NCAA and Butler is sick at home

Miami +5.5 (1U)...action play....major rivalry and will be close with the way FSU has been playing of late...they keep teams hanging around

Tenn  -2.5 (1U)...action play....one of the few SEC teams that could handle most BIG 12 teams in head to head

Texas Am +8.5 (1U)..action play...have turned the corner on their injury and disciplinary situation...in Nov/Dec, this line would have likely have been -4/-4.5.....and I think Kansas is sometimes weaker for focus at home than they are on the road if you can believe it

East Tenn St. -3.5 (1U)...hard to argue how well this team is playing ....carried over from last year's NCAA March success...Wofford can be a beast at home so I expect a competitive game

Under Crei/GT 156 (1U)...action play....notice Creightons totals coming down? Georgetown can play dee and their offense is hot and cold

Colorado +10 (1U)....action play....something is wrong with this ASU team and Colorado is playing tough on the road vs good teams

VTECH +5  (1U)...action play...ND has injury issues with 2 best players and yes they are grinding out wins but VTECH can shoot the ball lights out and if ND is not careful, they will find themselves down early and VTECH is a confidence shooting team....don't think ND has the horses to trade punches when this happens.

SF  +19  (1U)....action play...one of my alltime fave teams to ride when they are playing a good team on the road...they find a way to grind and keep games within 10 pts all the time


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Posted: #221

2pm game...Texas -5.5 2U...double up play is TBD (BET done).... Double up game is ULL -10.5 for 4 Units
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Posted: #222
6pm game candidate for Double-up...Harvard/Brown Under 132.5

...official play now.....Double up game is Nebraska -4 for 4U


3pm game: ....fading ULL 10.5 (2U)... double up game is Miss. St. -1.5 for 4U

Plenty of irons in the fire today....
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Posted: #223
Saturday: Pressing day and being very selective....double up system is going to be in effect!

Game#1:

GB  -5  (4U)...+4U.

2nd half plays: 1U plays

Wisc-Milwaukee -2
Duke Over 70
Kansas St  -3
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Posted: #224
 ULL -10.5 at 3pm ....if GB covers...ULL 2U

Double Up game is Miss St. -1.5 for 4U  (no play otherwise on Miss St. for now)
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Posted: #225
I think I am drunk today...so many plays:

Oklahoma 2nd half -2.5
Texas        2nd half -1.5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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