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NCAAB line move system

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jw11

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Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 11:58 AM ET #126

Quote Originally Posted by divotdigger45:

thanks for your work , am a reader ,seldom post, but this has me wondering, if the line goes up at least 1.5 pts you take the dog, if it goes down you take the fav. is this right or wrong . last nite i had taken yale,wright state and siena. were they the correct ones? thanks again for the work

divotdigger

my place had Yale +5 all day ,went to +4.5 briefly....

Sienna we ruled out becuase of injuries that was the probable reason of line movement...

WRIGHT ST was the only play.

jw11

Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 12:01 PM ET #127

Quote Originally Posted by jw11:

Good Morning.

12:00 ET

LOUISVILLE +5 @ UConn

...hate it, but then again I hate most of em.

GL2usTODAY

jw11

Feel the same way bro .. but in a way that line looked fishy to me , so the movement going the way I thought the line should have been a bit higher to begin with is what made me play the Cards ..

jw11

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Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 12:03 PM ET #128

Looking at the list of plays below...we HAVE taken two favorites so far...for example...

ILLINOIS opened at -5 , moved to -3.5...ILLINOIS was the play.

The loss was when BALL ST opened at -3, went to -1.5...BALL ST was the play, but it lost.

I'm thinking about tweeking the system to eliminate the fav's, but so far only two games to go by...we'll see if we get any today.

Quote Originally Posted by jw11:

System record updated....12-6

10 of the wins have an underdog winning outright.

SUMMARY as of 01-28-11

12 wins............

TENN +5.................won the game outright

ILLINI-3.5.................won by 10

ARK LR +3.5...........won the game outright

ST PETE pick...........won

ST BON +4..............won the game outright

FURMAN +6.............won the game outright

RIDER +1.5..............won the game outright

RICHM +3................won the game outright

W.CAROLINA +3.5...won the game outright by 24

SAMFORD +2.5.......won the game outright

SAN FRAN +5.5.......won the game outright

WRIGHT ST +4........won the game outright

6 losses...................

ELON +7...................lost by 8

FORDH +6.................lost by 12 (had 2H lead)

LOY MRMNT +1.5......lost by 2

BALL ST -1.5.............lost by 2

E.CAR. +3.................lost by 8

S.E MO.ST +2.5........ lost by 9

jw11

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Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 12:55 PM ET #129

8:00 ET

#641 Santa Clara +2 vs Loyola Marymount

IS a play

jw11

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Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:04 PM ET #130

10:00 ET

#657 San Francisco +1.5 vs Pepperdine

IS a play

(I bought to +2, bgut will use +1.5 for the records)

jw11

Barnstorm

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Posts: 4719

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:07 PM ET #131

Quote Originally Posted by aggieaccountant:

jw-

Tried your theory in the NBA last night when the Bulls went from a 1 point favorite to 1.5 point dog. I took the Bulls and covered easily. Obviously a sample size of 1 is small, but perhaps there is some hope in the NBA with this system.

It's a bit tedious to back test this, but if we split the work up, we could see. I just looked at January in the NBA and it might work. We'd have to agree on the parameters. Dogs only? Open at 6 or less? Or we can look at them all and see how it shakes out.

Looking at all possibilities in January NBA, I came up with 15-10 or 60%. That's taking any line move of 1.5 or more - favs or dogs. Favs were actually better than dogs.

Somebody could do December. Somebody November. Then we could go back a year if it looks good.

jw11

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:13 PM ET #132

10:00 ET

#663 Cal Irvine +4 vs UC Davis

IS a play

jw11

jw11

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:17 PM ET #133

Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Looking at all possibilities in January NBA, I came up with 15-10 or 60%. That's taking any line move of 1.5 or more - favs or dogs. Favs were actually better than dogs.

Somebody could do December. Somebody November. Then we could go back a year if it looks good.

I just don't have the time to do it Barn.

I'm juggling too many bowling pins as it is...LOL.

btw...what's the best way to look that stuff up ?

thanks

jw11

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:48 PM ET #134

2:00 ET

#677 College Charleston -2 vs Davidson

IS a play

jw11

the-profit

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Joined: Dec, 2002

Posts: 2998

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:51 PM ET #135

BYU has moved from -3.5 to -2

jw11

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:54 PM ET #136

LOUISVILLE takes the lead with two and a half minutes left in Regulation

the-profit

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Posts: 2998

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:57 PM ET #137

What about BYU?

jw11

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 1:58 PM ET #138

Quote Originally Posted by the-profit:

BYU has moved from -3.5 to -2

I have 3.5 to 2.5 bro

jw11

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:07 PM ET #139

Quote Originally Posted by jw11:

LOUISVILLE takes the lead with two and a half minutes left in Regulation

Overtime

jw11

Veteran

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Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:18 PM ET #140

Double Overtime

the-profit

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Posts: 2998

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:31 PM ET #141

Louisville

Upside

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Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:33 PM ET #142

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Feel the same way bro .. but in a way that line looked fishy to me , so the movement going the way I thought the line should have been a bit higher to begin with is what made me play the Cards ..

We pulled it off .. SU Winner again .. Had a feelin ..

p7060

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 101

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:33 PM ET #143

can jimmer do it for byu again? he was sick last year when they lost

Upside

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Posts: 8003

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:34 PM ET #144

Are you playing favorites with the line movement ?? Say Example BYU -3 1/2 down to -2 .. Take Byu ?? Not sure what the line actually is in that game .,

jw11

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Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 1580

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:41 PM ET #145

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Are you playing favorites with the line movement ?? Say Example BYU -3 1/2 down to -2 .. Take Byu ?? Not sure what the line actually is in that game .,

I still have 2.5 on that game...so no play as of now.

BUT...see the post above...I have

COLL OF CHARLESTON -2 going

...they opened at -3.5

Guys...I gotta take a nap...I'm old and tired and was up all night.

If you're interested in this system, keep an eye on the 3:00 4:00 + 5:00 games.....there are a few possible plays there.

I'll be back at 6:30 ET

GLwithTHIS c.o.c.GAME

jw11

marco5581

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 461

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:51 PM ET #146

good luck I am out for the day. Missed the c of c play but got the rest.

SuperHot

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 51

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 2:59 PM ET #147

thanks for the plays. I like your system

Barnstorm

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Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 4719

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:08 PM ET #148

Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Looking at all possibilities in January NBA, I came up with 15-10 or 60%. That's taking any line move of 1.5 or more - favs or dogs. Favs were actually better than dogs.

Somebody could do December. Somebody November. Then we could go back a year if it looks good.

Easiest way to back test it is on https://www.scoresandodds.com/. There is a calendar on the right that you can just click on to go back in time.

I'll try to do some more and see if the NBA works.

I also broke it down so we could see which side does the best - Home Favs, Visitor Dogs, Home Dogs, Visitor Favs.

I may also look at Totals to see if Line Movement can pick the over/under. Say a Total moves 2.5 or 3 points from the open. If it goes up 3 points, play the under. If it goes down 3 points play the over. So far, this seems to be 50/50.

willb3rd

Prospect

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 58

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:23 PM ET #149

I believe UNC Greensboro is a play now. Went from +5 to +6.5.

the-profit

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Posts: 2998

Posted: Jan. 29, 2011 - 3:35 PM ET #150

Quote Originally Posted by willb3rd:

I believe UNC Greensboro is a play now. Went from +5 to +6.5.

Good call. I use 5 dimes and i have had BYU -2 for a while as well.

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