"
Again, the line movement cannot be more
important than the players involved in the game. We are betting on the
game, correct? I am trying to predict what will happen on the actual
basketball court, not whether or not I am being trapped by Vegas."
With all due respect, I somewhat disagree. Line movement, in my opinion and analysis, is just as important as the game itself. Like you said, Vegas strives for equal money so they can take the Vig and walk away. Obviously that changes with books like MB, but let's talk Vegas for right now. When they adjust the line, it's not for shits and giggles -- it's because they have an uneven amount of money on one side and need to balance that out. That fact right there, that the line moves, should tell you something about where the money is coming in on and what the bettors who scare the books think.
And *that* is valuable information, just as much so as analysis of the game. Why? Because even with the greatest pre-game breakdown, things don't always go as anticipated. "That's why they play the games"
"
Where is the analysis around the actual game? How do you look at
just the line movement and bet? How can that be more important than
the situation angles, game location, players, stats, tempo, style of
play, and coaching?"
I never said look at JUST the line movement and bet (although I know some people who do just that). I firmly believe that line analysis is just one tool in the tool bag when it comes to capping a game -- and I'm not even saying it's more important than situational angles (which I tend to think its pretty damn important) or all those other factors you have listed.
"
Not one of you has offered any insight into the actual game. Again,
if you and I were discussing this PARTICULAR game where the spread is
not a factor, who would you say WINS (no line) and WHY????"
Statements like this lead me to believe you are not someone who does this for a living -- if picking winners consistently and long term was based solely on who wins and why, then lots of people would be long term winners.
It's not that easy. You are trying to solve a problem without using all of the tools available to you to get to the right answer.
And we're not discussing this game where the spread is not a factor -- because that's what we're betting on (unless you are taking ML for something obv.)
I don't know about you, but half of the reason I come to covers isn't just for the picks -- it's for discussing strategies and approaches to capping with other knowledgeable posters. I can't tell you how much stuff I've learned from dudes like vanzack, KGC, old dudes like Bird and PimpDaddy, Special_K, bracks, Crus, Sulfur, etc -- there are tons of people on this site that have excellent information, and not just necessarily for X game but rather for the holistic approach of how they go about capping games.
Personally, I love theoretical discussions about capping philosophies, but that's just me. The games come and go every day, but the info learned during those discussions about capping philosophies lasts a lot longer.
Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach him to fish, feed him for a lifetime.
Are you serious? You just 100% gave yourself away. I don't gamble for my career, but even I am smart enough to know that people who do gamble for a living will use numerous books and even runners in Vegas! So excuse me for saying GTFO with your 'I gamble on CBB for a living!' b.s.
if you come in quietly, make winning picks, people respect, thats why i get no respect because i dont make winning picks
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