Tough crowd here at Covers...

Kopono, you tried, man. You were polite and very clear with what you said, all of which makes sense. With this guy never watching line movement, and based on some of the things he said, I'm predicting he's a 22 year old kid that has won a few games or maybe had a good season last year, and all of the sudden thinks he can cap and claims to be a professional gambler. Getting all worked up and calling everybody fucking morons, over and over?? C'mon, man. What do you expect when you come on here and your first post is "I do this for a living and all I do is win!" and then your first play gets crushed? Seriously, think about it.

As far as line movement: I don't use it as a big factor either, but I look at. I also compare it to % of the public on a team. If you're going to do this for a living, you have to at least understand line movement vs. Public %. "It doesn't matter. They don't talk about line movement in the locker rooms."  Yeah, you are right. But you don't think that word gets out if so and so has the flu or an injury? Some insiders can get that info. and then crazy things happen to a line.

You want to discuss the game. Well, I'll say right now that I know nothing about N. Colorado, so I can't help you there. I am however wondering if your 'analysis' on this game was just "Undefeated team getting a point vs. a 2-3 team?! Well let's pick it!" because it kind of seems that way. As for me: I'll go ahead with Colorado +3 over Oregon St for tonight.

agree picker, this guy is the exact type of person that the linesmakers love to suck in.  This guy is an idiot...

Mathman, thanks for your time and selection.  Hang in there and go with the postive vibes.

"Kopono, you tried, man. You were polite and very clear with what you said, all of which makes sense."

Well if he doesn't want to talk general philosophy and strategy then so be it.

"As far as line movement: I don't use it as a big factor either, but I look at. I also compare it to % of the public on a team. If you're going to do this for a living, you have to at least understand line movement vs. Public %. "

My only problem with that approach is that I don't think it's possible to get accurate numbers on the % of public on a team.

Yeah, I'm not sure how accurate they % numbers are. I use vegasinsider to get them, but it's more a gauge than to see exact percentages. I don't think they can actually pull the stats from all of the casinos and/or sportsbook and get an exact % of what the public is on. Also, the reason I don't factor in line movements a whole lot is because there are too many games being played. Vegas will move lines to make it appear something crazy is happening and I believe hopes to get more action on the side they are short on. Plus, the teams out there dropping big action on one side to move a line one way, and hitting the opposite for huge money on the day of the game....that stuff still happens, I'm sure. But is that really happening or is it just a Vegas trick move to make it appear that's happening to get action?? All that being said, I do glance at them and just stay away from those fishy games for the most part.

Ballpicker,

Did you read my analysis on the game? You said I picked the game based on record. That's what it looks like to you. Please read what I wrote about the contest:

"I could care less about the record of these two teams. I don't care about the record of a pitcher in baseball either. I am looking at statistics that I consider to be important in handicapping a basketball game.

My only concern with this game is the SOS of N. Colo vs. Montana State. MS has played a far more difficult schedule this year and the numbers can be skewed when considering SOS.

One stat that is of particular importance to me is PPP or points per possesion. N. Colo is vastly superior to Montana State in this category with NCO averaging 1.025 PPP offensively and giving up .944 PPP defensively. MS is averaging .949 PPP offensively and is giving up 1.008 PPP on the defensive sided of the ball.

Another thing I like to see is a team that gets to the FT line far more than their opponent and that is certainly the case here. NCO scores 29% of their points from the FT line while Montana scores 10% of theirs from the FT line. This stat tells me that regardless of competition, NCO is looking to attack the basket while MS is not. I like aggressive teams that attack the basket and can finish at the FT line. NCO also shoots a much better % from the FT line than MS which has nothing to do with SOS, but the fundamentals of shooting.

I also like to see who the returning players are for this game. NCO swept the season series last year with MS in pretty decisive fashion. Not only did they sweep them, but the same players from last year are involved in this game.

NCO 77-50 at home

NCO 65-55 on road

I have so many other angles and statistics that I use to handicap a game, but these are some basic things I look at when evaluating whether to put my money on a play. I could very well lose this game, but I am convinced I am on the right side. "

should clarify before bashing starts: By 'teams' I meant gambling teams,  NOT actual sports teams.

In my experience, anyone who does this "for a living" and is successful at it, doesn't spend them time on internet gambling forums trying to "prove themselves".  They keep a low profile, study their craft, and don't try to bring attention to themselves at all.  Touts on the other hand . . .

Ballpicker quote:

"You want to discuss the game. Well, I'll say right now that I know nothing about N. Colorado, so I can't help you there. I am however wondering if your 'analysis' on this game was just "Undefeated team getting a point vs. a 2-3 team?! Well let's pick it!" because it kind of seems that way. As for me: I'll go ahead with Colorado +3 over Oregon St for tonight. "

Did my analysis above at least show that some small degree of thought was used to pick NCO tonight or do you still think I just looked at the records? Princeton's record last night was worse than RUTGERS and RUTGERS was the public play. I had Princeton and lost. I don't care about the record....

MM -

I run the same kind of numbers for NBA.  Let me know if you do as well.  Would like to compare notes in the future.  Already got my games locked for tonight.

props to kapono for being very even keeled in this matter...

I am new to all of this and have grasped that if you don't use everything to your advantage you are at a disadvantage.

MM, I will agree that your analysis on this game is some good stuff. Apparently I missed that in this huge thread. All those numbers do point to N. CO as the play. But I still can't help but wonder why this line is set where it's at? I do know that Vegas is pretty bad at setting CBB lines when the season starts, as they are all basically set due to the previous year's teams, so maybe that is the case here. But NCO killed MS in both games last year, and I think Vegas would know that. Then again, they don't spend a whole lot of time on smaller games like this, for the most part.

It may very well lose tonight, but a season of handicapping isn't made from 1 pick or even 50. It is a marathon, not a sprint. My critical stats point to NCO. As I said, my only concern is the SOS of NCO which I highlighted. This could come back to bite me tonight.

Mathman,

I also use your philosophy of capping by looking at the numbers, how efficient each team has been as well as looking into matchups that can exploited by one team or the other. In fact I grew up watching Oreon Tech basketball because it was the closest college and the team is annually one of the best at the NAIA levels. Their coach Danny Miles who has over 880 wins uses a "Value Point" system that he devised in the late 70's that gives the overall efficiency of an individual player or team. In 95 when I stopped playing college ball and started betting CBB games as a hobby I looked into employing his system and how valuable it was at predicting outcomes.  Over the last decade I have modified strength of schedule variables and added other factors in to lock in a predictive model that has been a proven winner each of the past 9 years with a high of 65% and a low of 56.7% based on my 4 point or more of determined value.

I've looked into alot of games with "fishy" lines or reverse line movements over the years and have tracked these through a spreadsheet to see how these played out over the years. I have found over my 15 years of betting that these lines I have personally highlighted as being "off" don't vary +/-  4% from my overall betting % any given year. That being said, after having a large enough sample size to eveluate, I always bet my plays that have 4 points or more of perceived value reguardless of line and / or movement.  If I lose a game that I deemed fishy before hand I rescrutinize the data to see why Vegas had that particular game nailed against my predictive model.

Sports betting is a grind and you will miss a game or an angle on a game that will cost you but to be successful at this you have to find a reliable proven winning capping method and stick with while always looking for ways to improve upon it.

 

Best of Luck to tonight Math, but I am on the other side of this match up. I am not sure if you have seen either of these 2 teams play this year, but Montana St is the better team IMO, and they are at home. For NoCo, if their shooting is off, they are done. They don't rebound well, and they don't have anyone to stop Montana St's post game. I guess we'll see. Good Luck on the rest of the year, I'm rootin for ya

sniff sniff...I smell tout douchebag

I bring more of a psychological aspect to capping here at covers. I capped a Dallas Cowboys under on Thanksgiving saying they all were eating mash potatoes and turkey before the game.

I won.

Not saying I'm the best but winners win you know?

The best post I have read since joining. I also use offensive and defensive eFG stats and other efficiency stats that are relevant. I don't have access to the individual efficiency stats you mention and am intrigued with your approach. We should talk...

Do you use just efficiency numbers and SOS or do you add in the "four factors" as well?

MathMan and Kyle sittin' in a tree....

Without reading this thread I'm going to predict that this guy posted either northern colorado, university of colorado or both as today's pick.

All of them with particular attention to the 4 factors and SOS. The SOS of NCO is my big concenr tonight.

 

IT'S RIGHT THERE IN YOUR POST.  I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU DON'T SEE IT 

Whatever, show me anywhere in that thread where it says "lock". Multiple people ahve checked and said it is no where to be found including neuralman1 and kapono. Stop lying....

I believe you when you say you make a living at this.  Mommy and daddy give you your 6 dollar allowance each week and when you win your dollar every other week you get to buy yourself a candy bar!