Tough crowd here at Covers...

I have a spreadsheet where I load up all of this information along with other stuff that produces a line. That line is adjusted for home court using my own formula for calculating home court advantage. That includes distance travelled, average attendance for home team, etc.

Mathman,

Would like to know how you factor in SOS this early in the season?  My statistical efficiency model is progressively more accurate as the season progresses and larger sample sizes are there for players, teams, conferences, etc... Always looking for ways to improve upon my sysem and  be able to use this formula earlier in the year.  Find much more value in the smaller conferences and  I am able to watch WAC, Big Sky and PAC-10 games the most in person and on TV.

Like these forums early in the season for insight from guys that know their home town teams or coinferences. I bet 1-5 games a night early in the season at about 1/5 of my normal wager to keep my interest in these early games without enough statistical data and make notes on team's style of play, tempo, how well the handle different defenses and one of the most important is to see how the coaches handle their team being down late. (How early they start to foul and to what differential they will keep fouling, etc...)

Always looking for ways to improve so any insight from a guy that makes a living at this is much appreciated. Great post about never more than 2% of bankroll. Started 2% flat betting 8 years ago religiously and have earned steadt profit ever since with no big swings.

SOS just doesn't mean as much this early in the season which is why NCO made it as a play. If NCO had an SOS rating this bad later in the season, even with the efficiency edges they hold they would not be a play for me. SOS and common opponents are extremely important in my approach along with the Pomeroy numbers.

The fact is we don't have enough information this early in the season. My model gets better as well later in the season. Tonight is a 0.5 % BR bet for me and I see no other games worth betting. Hoping Saturday is better.....

You are the man! I would love to see that...

gl bro , but a spreadsheet will not make you a winner in the longrun.....

spreadsheet dioesnt know a certain team plays well at home or on the road but only after 9pm, or that a team won by 25 but was only up by 3 before the best player on the other team went out....

vegas and the linesmakers are light years ahead of your spreadsheets....

What a crack monkey you are.....Like a lot of us haven't seen this same song and dance a billion times before...Let's look at your first post shall we...

Starting tomorrow, you guys will witness one of the very best at handicapping college basketball. I do this for a living and that is no bullshit! What would you call this intro?

Give me one month to prove my ability before you come in here bashing. I use a sophisticated predictive model that incorporates a great deal of proprietary statistical measurements that I have found to be most relevant in determining the outcome of a game. Do tell. i mean shit, you have a sophisticated predictive model...Is this like a flux capicitor?

This is the result of years of research and I am going to help those of you who are willing to put your egos aside and simply listen. Who said anybody needed help? I thought this was a forum to discuss sports and related topics? You are acting as if you are god sent from heaven with this statement.

I am running the numbers tonight and hope to have my first picks up tomorrow sometime. Great, why didn't you just post your pick with your first post instead of the leading front you did here?

It all leads to self promotion and pumping yourself up to be the next coming of Jesus. that's what this is about....Look at all the attention you are getting...

So if you lose 44% of the time that means you win 56% od the time....If you really are a MethLab than what is your true winning percentage yield factoring in the vig over the course of this 8 years....Let's just say your vig is constantly 10%....What would be your true profit percentage? Show all of us... 

I don't play NBA spreadsheet data during the season because I can't get a grip on when and where multimillionaire players are going to decide to show up during a grueling 82 game season. Although, have had success in the playoffs with it since both teams should have fairly equal motivation in that situation.

The effeciency variables is just a single step in capping any single game and gives you a predicted score which afterwards you start breaking down all other aspects of the game (styles of play, individual matchups, injuries, travel, coaches, etc...)  and TRAIN as I have refined this spreadsheet over the years I have eliminated HI/LO as well as "Garbage minute factoring" for blowouts.  Thus you can get a clean model for each game without skewed numbers for the couple to few games a year which a team plays far above or below expected play and reduce the game into PPP minus extremes and garbage time.

Still only a portion of overall capping of any game but have years of success starting with these few formulas and then looking at all angles which would cause variation to the formulas predicted outcome. No where near a perfect model and always looking way to tweak or add to my capping processes to improve results. That's why I'm on here to look at others insight on games.

Agree or disagree with his plays but it is refreshing to see the few cappers that but valid numbers or insights into their plays.

Just my $.02

Why did this guy take the easiest pick on the board?

Chasing?

Starting tomorrow, you guys will witness one of the very best at handicapping college basketball. I do this for a living and that is no bullshit!

Give me one month to prove my ability before you come in here bashing. I use a sophisticated predictive model that incorporates a great deal of proprietary statistical measurements that I have found to be most relevant in determining the outcome of a game.

This is the result of years of research and I am going to help those of you who are willing to put your egos aside and simply listen.

I am running the numbers tonight and hope to have my first picks up tomorrow sometime.

then expect people to jump all over you because your arrogance brought it upon yourself. Why not just give your opinion on a game without all the "I'm better than you nonsense." That way, some of those interested will engage in productive debate with you and will share information and we will all learn from one another. But when you come around trying to say, "My Johnson is bigger than yours," don't get all sensitive when your Johnson comes out looking not so impressive.