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Poolman had a thread talking about comparing the Vegas line and KenPom's line. After reading his I decided to backtrack the last week and find the games that had a large difference between the two lines. I found that when there is a large difference between the lines, Vegas wins 64% of the time.
The system is a bit confusing to put into words but I will do my best.
I have defined a large difference as follows:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
There is one exception to this rule:
When Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play. KenPom seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.
So in short, when there is a large difference in KenPom's projected line and Vegas' line. We fade KenPom.
Using these numbers as a large difference, this system went
24-14-1 in the last 7 days.
Keep in mind I have only checked this for 1 week of games so there is not a large sample size.
The system is a bit confusing to put into words but I will do my best.
I have defined a large difference as follows:
If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
There is one exception to this rule:
When Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play. KenPom seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.
So in short, when there is a large difference in KenPom's projected line and Vegas' line. We fade KenPom.
Using these numbers as a large difference, this system went
24-14-1 in the last 7 days.
Keep in mind I have only checked this for 1 week of games so there is not a large sample size.
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