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Vegas vs KenPom System

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Posted: #51
I will not count these as plays unless the lines move but my bookie lets me cancel games until tip-off, I'm not sure why he allows this but he does. 

So, to hopefully help pad my wallet I'm going to take the extra .5 points.

I locked in:
La Salle +14.5
Tennessee +6.5

I will cancel them if the lines don't move to make them system plays.

Also, I will not count them on the overall record with the extra half point
 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

I will not count these as plays unless the lines move but my bookie lets me cancel games until tip-off, I'm not sure why he allows this but he does. 

So, to hopefully help pad my wallet I'm going to take the extra .5 points.

I locked in:
La Salle +14.5
Tennessee +6.5

I will cancel them if the lines don't move to make them system plays.

Also, I will not count them on the overall record with the extra half point

 

Sup Beaver,

 

just looking at your system, if you wait for the lines to move in the better's favor, you would have lost the hook and have less of an edge, but as you stated if you locked in at your current lines: la salle 14.5 and tennesse at 6.5 then these basically are no plays in the system.  need to tweak it some more!

 

PR

 
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Posted: #53
im all in with you i love tennesee   missed lasalle woops  but will add  way to splash in the pool  !!!!!! were up so far and lookin forward to beaver tweeking it. i wager now yes lines will move dont worry its just volume  on public wagers  stick to opening lines ive seen it go in are favour winner against us winner expl duke dropped at miami had duke  thanks for posting playz brother we appreciate all your work !!!!!!!!!!!  
 
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Posted: #54
im gonna 6 point tease thes also thx brother i love getting coin back from the bookie     
 
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Posted: #55

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Vegas                                          KenPom
Furman-3.5                                 Furman-6
CoC -17                                       CoC -23
Valpo -1                                        Valpo -3

So Tonights plays are:
Chattanooga +3.5
Samford +17
W.GB +1

If the Syracuse line moves to 3, Syracuse will be a play.


Good start for the system.  2-1 as we avoided the near moose with Wisky Green Bay.

I will continue to track this system and everyone is welcome to help me mold it into a winning system.

Also, If I miss a game that is supposed to be a play, please let me know

What about tweaking the system to be teams that qualify using the system you are using but they also have to be a team at home? If you would have used it that way tonight you would have went 2-0. Just a thought and I would be curious to see what the record would be if  you added this one tweak to it.

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



Go to kenpom.com/fanmatch.php

Once there you can see his prediction for every game being played that day.

You can compare his projected line with the actual line made by Vegas(I am just using the lines on covers)

Thanks bro! Your the man! 

I will do a couple examples for you:
Vegas has Xavier at -14.5 while Kenpom has Xavier winning by 18 (88-70).  According to my rules for the system, a game with a line between 12.5 and 16 needs to have a difference of 4 to qualify as a play.  This game is close because it has a difference of 3.5 and if the line moves to -14, the difference will be 4 and it will qualify.  The play would be La Salle +14

Same can be said for Tennessee.  Vegas has Vandy at -6.5 while Kenpom has them winning by 9 (76-67).  According to my rules, a game with a line between 4.5 and 12 has to have a difference of 3 to qualify.  This is a 2.5 point difference now and if the line moves to -6, it will qualify as a play.  The play would be Tennessee +6.

I hope this clears things up for you Jtmarlin
 
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Posted: #57
One last question! If the kenpom has Xavier winning by 18 and vegas is -14 wouldn't you take xavier -14 ??
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by yejin1227:




Backtracking from 2/1/11 and using only games that are 95% and above : he is 68-4 .

Tonight there are 3 games that are 95% and above :

Coll of Charleston
Kansas
University of Northern Colorado




Just for record keeping : 71-4 after a 3-0 night
Again, with the high juice on some of these, possible ML parlays here I would think. At any rate, will track through the week and possibly play some this weekend.
 
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Posted: #59
One last question! If the kenpom has Xavier winning by 18 and vegas is -14 wouldn't you take xavier -14 ??
 
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Posted: #60
nice help ful hint yes home teams are very strong winners  we might have to evalute that as we tweek this  that was the norm for me a major requirement  home advantage then i figured why guess against the greatest linesmakers  i played a 3 teamer kansas gb wis ch college all covered with the bonus 7 points teaser sometimes watch how drastically you improve the efficience of winning some one posted a valuable info VEGAS 9% off line accurace points are a premium percentage much improved stst them points to all plays and percentage of winners dramatically will soar    thx beaver24 
 
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Posted: #61
yjen 1227 now thats what im yalkin about THATS UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!    WE NEED HELP YOUR ON TO SOMETHING BETTER THEN ANYTHING   jtmarlin we go with vegas  kenpom has tenn favoured higher than vegas  trust vegas let go of the wheel they definatly dont GIVE AWAY POINTS they adjusted so we move with them  sorry beaver23 i put 24   woops thx  !!!!!!
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

yjen 1227 now thats what im yalkin about THATS UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!    WE NEED HELP YOUR ON TO SOMETHING BETTER THEN ANYTHING   jtmarlin we go with vegas  kenpom has tenn favoured higher than vegas  trust vegas let go of the wheel they definatly dont GIVE AWAY POINTS they adjusted so we move with them  sorry beaver23 i put 24   woops thx  !!!!!!



Thanks Poolman
 
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Posted: #63
yeijin1227  74-whatever   post please   !!!!!!!!!!  tym is of essence seasons close to ending it looks good enough    lol   add some water to the pool 
 
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Posted: #64
I HAVE STUDIED KENPOM FOR A LONG TIME AND THE SHORT CUT TO ALL OF THIS IS BET ON THE TEAM THAT HAS THE HIGHEST ADJD NUMBER...........63% OVER THE LAST 18 MONTHS
 
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Posted: #65
Good information
 
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Posted: #66
i hope beaver23 knows what that or how or if that will effect THE PLAYZ thanks hank55 appreciate molding this how should he incorporate that adj stuff hank ?
 
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Posted: #67
Hank, I feel like you would always just be betting on the favorite, as it would have a better adjd in nearly all cases....




 
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Posted: #68
Unless I am understanding you wrong, Are you saying

66% of the time the team ranked lower in adjd standings cover?

Or 66% of the times ranked higher in adjd standings cover?
 
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Posted: #69
I like the system and the theory behind it. However its hard for me to play a game like Tn. at + 6 when I wouldn't play it at +6 1/2.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by pinerider:

 

Sup Beaver,

 

just looking at your system, if you wait for the lines to move in the better's favor, you would have lost the hook and have less of an edge, but as you stated if you locked in at your current lines: la salle 14.5 and tennesse at 6.5 then these basically are no plays in the system.  need to tweak it some more!

 

PR



PR,
Thanks for the input.  What are you suggesting I tweak?  As of now there are no plays tomorrow.  There are two potential plays but they need line movement to become plays.  If there is no movement I will cancel my bets.  I just figured that since I have the luxury of canceling plays, I might as well get the extra .5.  I realize that not all bettors have that luxury and I do not recommend betting on these games unless the lines move
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by emeraldsports:

What about tweaking the system to be teams that qualify using the system you are using but they also have to be a team at home? If you would have used it that way tonight you would have went 2-0. Just a thought and I would be curious to see what the record would be if  you added this one tweak to it.



Emerald,

Interesting observation!  I will continue to post plays that are decided by my original rules but you should keep track of only the home games.  After one week I will make any changes that we as a team of bettors decide are necessary.  I appreciate everyone's input and I hopefully we will be able to put together a winning system
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by JTMARLIN1:

One last question! If the kenpom has Xavier winning by 18 and vegas is -14 wouldn't you take xavier -14 ??


No.  The point of the system is to be on the same side as Vegas.  When there is a large difference like in the Xavier game, we FADE Kenpom and side with Vegas
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by ParkIt33:

Hank, I feel like you would always just be betting on the favorite, as it would have a better adjd in nearly all cases....







 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by rstacey:

I like the system and the theory behind it. However its hard for me to play a game like Tn. at + 6 when I wouldn't play it at +6 1/2.


I agree.  It does seem a little strange.  This first week is kind of a trial period, it might need to be changed to only using the opening line instead of any line throughout the day that meets the system requirements.  We will see though, IF the lines move for the Tenn and Xavier games they will be a good test to see if we should only use the opening line.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by yejin1227:



Just for record keeping : 71-4 after a 3-0 night
Again, with the high juice on some of these, possible ML parlays here I would think. At any rate, will track through the week and possibly play some this weekend.



What was the % of ATS winners for the 95% or better games, did you track that also just curious.\  thanks
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