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Vegas vs KenPom System

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by mtm2649:

Does the system work for TOTALS too?  I saw that the Furman total was off by 3 points.  Vegas total is 141 while KenPom is 138.  Would we bet the over then or you don't think it will work on TOTALS?  Thanks.



I haven't tried it with totals.  But I think he is usually pretty accurate with totals
 
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Posted: #27
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



I believe that is the probability that Villanova will win the game



Backtracking from 2/1/11 and using only games that are 95% and above : he is 68-4 .

Tonight there are 3 games that are 95% and above :

Coll of Charleston
Kansas
University of Northern Colorado


 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by yejin1227:




Backtracking from 2/1/11 and using only games that are 95% and above : he is 68-4 .

Tonight there are 3 games that are 95% and above :

Coll of Charleston
Kansas
University of Northern Colorado



Straight up?
 
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Posted: #31

YA BUT THE ML IS WAY TO HIGH!!

 
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Posted: #32
What book are you using for VEGAS....hilton?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Elac82:


Straight up?


Yes, as ML winners. I know the lines can get to -2000 and such on some of these. I am not suggesting to play these straight. Perhaps as part of a larger ML parlay ? Not sure if I will but just something to watch and track. Even a ML parlay of -2000, -1300, and -165 pays something like 80 on a 100. Maybe a round robin of 5 teamers with 8 selections ... I dont know but I think I will watch for awhile before I play myself.
 
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Posted: #34
college of char will crush samford tonight! i use kenpom too and just like i won my cal bet i will win my coll of char bet. vegas is not moving the line cause is going to win!
 
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Posted: #35
LEAVE IT TO BEAVER !!!!! brother thank you so much all of forum will appreciate all your efforts by combining the most accurate info analaysis system that the public is free to use and trust the fact that somewhere in vegas the ultimatly have an even more accurate system  there is going to be some way for all of us to decypher a way to trend this keep up the incredible work and i knew that some brilliant beaver would sniff winners out THANKS BEAVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #36
its great to see all of us working together here and what a relief to have for once a POSITIVE THREAD THATS BENIFICAL    lets swim and keep people from pissing in this pool    keep up the great work 
 
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Posted: #37
yejei might have something 64-4   keep digging  bro thx
 
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Posted: #40
bingo coll char!
 
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Posted: #41
shhhhhh keep it down vegas will here us       lol   lets swim  
 
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Posted: #42
Vegas                                          KenPom
Furman-3.5                                 Furman-6
CoC -17                                       CoC -23
Valpo -1                                        Valpo -3

So Tonights plays are:
Chattanooga +3.5
Samford +17
W.GB +1

If the Syracuse line moves to 3, Syracuse will be a play.


Good start for the system.  2-1 as we avoided the near moose with Wisky Green Bay.

I will continue to track this system and everyone is welcome to help me mold it into a winning system.

Also, If I miss a game that is supposed to be a play, please let me know
 
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Posted: #43
Here are the rules again:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

There is one exception to this rule:
When Vegas and KenPom have different teams favored it is a no play.  KenPom seems to get more of these close ones right than Vegas.
 
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Posted: #44
beaver...........why such a wide range 4.5 to 12???  this is a huge window.  cant you break it down smaller?  you will have to to make me think you have anything going here.  otherwise with a window like that, alot of unproven factors and luck
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by thedegenerate:

beaver...........why such a wide range 4.5 to 12???  this is a huge window.  cant you break it down smaller?  you will have to to make me think you have anything going here.  otherwise with a window like that, alot of unproven factors and luck


I chose 12 because 3 points is 25% of 12.  What do you think the window should be?  I am open to suggestions, however with these numbers it is hitting at 65% over the last 8 days.


 
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Posted: #46
Many people have said that just 3 points across the board is a large enough difference.  I altered it a little bit because I think when the spread is 4 or smaller, 2 points is a very big difference and when the spread is over 12, 3 points begins to be a small difference
 
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Posted: #47
After a quick glance at tomorrow's action I do not see any system plays.

Vanderbilt -6.5 and Xavier -14.5 are both close.

If the lines move to -6 and -14 they will qualify as plays.

However, I would not recommend playing games that are "close" to the system.  When I backtracked they only hit at about 50%
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

After a quick glance at tomorrow's action I do not see any system plays.

Vanderbilt -6.5 and Xavier -14.5 are both close.

If the lines move to -6 and -14 they will qualify as plays.

However, I would not recommend playing games that are "close" to the system.  When I backtracked they only hit at about 50%




How are you figuring this out. I went to Kenpom site and it made no sense what so ever
 
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Posted: #49
way to tweek it beaver we all appreciate all your help and creating a MONSTER !!!!!!! im happy with todays playz    thx !!!!!!!!!!!   
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by JTMARLIN1:





How are you figuring this out. I went to Kenpom site and it made no sense what so ever


Go to kenpom.com/fanmatch.php

Once there you can see his prediction for every game being played that day.

You can compare his projected line with the actual line made by Vegas(I am just using the lines on covers)

I will do a couple examples for you:
Vegas has Xavier at -14.5 while Kenpom has Xavier winning by 18 (88-70).  According to my rules for the system, a game with a line between 12.5 and 16 needs to have a difference of 4 to qualify as a play.  This game is close because it has a difference of 3.5 and if the line moves to -14, the difference will be 4 and it will qualify.  The play would be La Salle +14

Same can be said for Tennessee.  Vegas has Vandy at -6.5 while Kenpom has them winning by 9 (76-67).  According to my rules, a game with a line between 4.5 and 12 has to have a difference of 3 to qualify.  This is a 2.5 point difference now and if the line moves to -6, it will qualify as a play.  The play would be Tennessee +6.

I hope this clears things up for you Jtmarlin
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