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Vegas vs KenPom System

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Posted: #76
any other line information people/places than kenpom?
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by ParkIt33:

Hank, I feel like you would always just be betting on the favorite, as it would have a better adjd in nearly all cases....






ACTUALLY YOU WOULD BE TAKING MOSTLY UNDERDOGS.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by ParkIt33:

Unless I am understanding you wrong, Are you saying

66% of the time the team ranked lower in adjd standings cover?

Or 66% of the times ranked higher in adjd standings cover?


THE TEAM WITH THE HIGHER DEFENSIVE NUMBER COVERS THE SPREAD.
 
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Posted: #79
EACH TEAM HAS AN ADJO NUMBER AND ADJD NUMBER FOR OFFENSE AND DEFENSE. I TRY TO PLAY A TEAM WERE BOTH NUMBERS ARE HIGHER. HOWEVER, THE ADJD NUMBER CARRIES THE MOST WEIGHT. IT ACTUALLY WORKS BETTER ON TV GAMES.
 
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Posted: #80
if i am reading the system correctly tn would be a play if the line goes to 6....let me know if this is correct. 
 
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Posted: #81
Lasalle would also be a play if the line moves to 14
 
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Posted: #82

Beaver,

I'm been noticing this trend myself for a couple weeks now, and playing a few angles off this "system" which has been successful over the last 3 days.  I started to post a message in poolman's thread about this same exact angle you are referring to, but then accidently deleted my post before hitting submit.  I didn't have the time or energy to type it all in again....mainly because his thread was so literary challenged and hard to read.

I will be posting my results probably sometime tonight or tomorrow from backtesting a similar theory to the one you are trying to develop here.  A small piece of info that I can give you before then is to rely primarily on the opening line, and don't put too much stock into movements thereafter.  Always keep in mind that the books have to move their lines based on $ coming in on either side to get the final figures as close to 50/50 as possible to earn their juice at least. 

The early results of some of my backtesting is closer to 75% btw....and that's a combination of sides and totals. In fact I've found a very good angle on totals I'll be sharing later.

The only thing I'll say and plea for is that we don't overblow this whole "theory" and so-called "system".  There are some underlying fundamental reason's for playing an angle to this theory that we all should be keeping as our primary reason for playing a side.  The most glaring reasoning behind this "theory" and other "systems" that are frequently posted on this site, is that if the line seems fishy or doesn't seem to make sense....there's a strong reason for the books to be posting it there.

I'll be back later on with summary post.....I appreciate this forum and the many good users out there that share their picks and angles.

MM

 
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Posted: #83
Great post guys  keep it up   you know we all are desperately searching for a system to beat the thieving mighty books and any form of assistance, advice, or whatever would be awesome for us who are in need of a extra income.  Again keep it up!  
            

   

 
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Posted: #84
Hank-The team with the better D is ranked lower.So are you saying take the team with the lowest ranked AD.Taking the highest would be taking the least best defensive team of the two?Thanks
 
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Posted: #85

Quote Originally Posted by ka4life:

Lasalle would also be a play if the line moves to 14

maybe i am missing somthing here.......but wouldnt Xavier be the play if the line is 14.......Ken Pom has Xavier beating LaSalle 88-70 which is 4 points above the Vegas line? 

 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by chop11:

Hank-The team with the better D is ranked lower.So are you saying take the team with the lowest ranked AD.Taking the highest would be taking the least best defensive team of the two?Thanks


THE KENPOM NUMBERS ARE NOT RATINGS OR RANKINGS OR HOW GOOD A TEAM IS, THEY ARE HOW EFFICIENT A TEAM IS AT ANY ONE POSITION. IT CHANGES DAILY. THE WORST TEAM ON THE BOARD COULD HAVE THE HIGHEST DEFENSIVE NUMBERS AND THE LOWEST OFFENSIVE NUMBER AND STILL COVER A SPREAD. 
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by jacobjoe02:

maybe i am missing somthing here.......but wouldnt Xavier be the play if the line is 14.......Ken Pom has Xavier beating LaSalle 88-70 which is 4 points above the Vegas line? 



The point of this system is to fade kenpom and tail Vegas, so we would take La Salle
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by Hank55:

EACH TEAM HAS AN ADJO NUMBER AND ADJD NUMBER FOR OFFENSE AND DEFENSE. I TRY TO PLAY A TEAM WERE BOTH NUMBERS ARE HIGHER. HOWEVER, THE ADJD NUMBER CARRIES THE MOST WEIGHT. IT ACTUALLY WORKS BETTER ON TV GAMES.


Thanks for the tip hank.  Have you documented this, or back tested it at all?  I will keep an eye on the ADJD numbers
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



Thanks for the tip hank.  Have you documented this, or back tested it at all?  I will keep an eye on the ADJD numbers


I ONLY PLAYED THE TV GAMES WHERE BOTH THE OFFENSE AND DEFENSE NUMBERS WERE HIGH FOR THE SAME TEAM AND IT IS 63% THIS MONTH. HAD ONE BAD DAY, WENT 2-7. THE OTHERS WERE BETWEEN 55 AND 70 %.
 
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Posted: #90
By the way,

Both lines have moved.
Official plays for Tuesday are:

La Salle +14
Tennessee +6

I am hoping that they will both be public fades as well, right now they both are.
La Salle has 32%
Tenn has 36%
(Those numbers are according to pregame.com)
 
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Posted: #91
YTD for the system is 2-1
 
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Posted: #92
tennessee has dropped to 5.5 on my book
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by mikeike:

tennessee has dropped to 5.5 on my book


Would still qualify as a play
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



The point of this system is to fade kenpom and tail Vegas, so we would take La Salle


FOR EXAMPLE

I LOVE  TO PLAY  3 TEAMER 8Pts teasers..... AND I HAVE  THE FOLLOWING  GAMES IN MIND... TELL ME WHAT DO U SUGGEST

XAVIER -6.5
OSU--2.5
TEXAS -10
UTAH +.5

ANY THOUGHTS .. OR   IF U LIKE ANY OTHER GAMES IS WELCOMED -
 
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Posted: #95
using this system should you wait to get the final line from your book then compare? i get my opening lines from scoresandodds web site they have Xavier at -14.5 as of now that would not be a play for me have to wait have to wait till i get lines from my book  Thanks
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Marketmaker:

Beaver,

I'm been noticing this trend myself for a couple weeks now, and playing a few angles off this "system" which has been successful over the last 3 days.  I started to post a message in poolman's thread about this same exact angle you are referring to, but then accidently deleted my post before hitting submit.  I didn't have the time or energy to type it all in again....mainly because his thread was so literary challenged and hard to read.

I will be posting my results probably sometime tonight or tomorrow from backtesting a similar theory to the one you are trying to develop here.  A small piece of info that I can give you before then is to rely primarily on the opening line, and don't put too much stock into movements thereafter.  Always keep in mind that the books have to move their lines based on $ coming in on either side to get the final figures as close to 50/50 as possible to earn their juice at least. 

The early results of some of my backtesting is closer to 75% btw....and that's a combination of sides and totals. In fact I've found a very good angle on totals I'll be sharing later.

The only thing I'll say and plea for is that we don't overblow this whole "theory" and so-called "system".  There are some underlying fundamental reason's for playing an angle to this theory that we all should be keeping as our primary reason for playing a side.  The most glaring reasoning behind this "theory" and other "systems" that are frequently posted on this site, is that if the line seems fishy or doesn't seem to make sense....there's a strong reason for the books to be posting it there.

I'll be back later on with summary post.....I appreciate this forum and the many good users out there that share their picks and angles.

MM

 

mm, that's what I've been trying to say here and elsewhere. Forget about the line moves once Vegas sets the opening lines. Use the openers as your determining factor if the play qualifies. Now Hank has a great point as far as a filter with his defensive ratings. Got to look into that.

 
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Posted: #97
There are a lot of people saying that only the opening line should be used.  If that were the case there would've only been one play yesterday (WisGB Pickem) and the system would be 1-0.  For this first week I will continue to use lines that move into system plays but I will keep track of the record if only opening lines are used.

So...
If the line can move the system is 2-1.
If only the opening line is allowed, the system is 1-0.

If only using the opening line there are no plays today.

If the line can move there are 2 plays(La Salle and Tennessee) and two more that might become plays:
Michigan St(if the line moves to 2)
and Illinois St (if the line moves to 4)

I might have to add in a stipulation that requires plays to be public fades, this would avoid playing games like Michigan State where the only reason it would become a play is heavy public betting. 

Thoughts???

 
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Posted: #98
i use the kenpom system all the time! your getting vandy-4 which is awesome and they are looking to avenge 67-64 defeat to tenn early. 2nd pick xavier is money at home they play a bad lasalle team lay -14 your getting great lines. vegas is not lowering these lines saying the dogs will win!  your getting 2 great home teams at better lines!
 
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Posted: #99
when your using kenpom every factor comes into play!  you will not make any money using it they you are!  both those plays you picked  should lose tonight based on other factors involved with these games. good luck but i am on vandy huge tonight  just like i was with cal and coll of char.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by crazy1464:

when your using kenpom every factor comes into play!  you will not make any money using it they you are!  both those plays you picked  should lose tonight based on other factors involved with these games. good luck but i am on vandy huge tonight  just like i was with cal and coll of char.


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