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Vegas vs KenPom System

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Alright i follow ur system Beaver, but let me ask you this? Is Kenpom any good at what they do? I mean if they have lets say Xavier at 18 and the line is 14 at most books then we take laSalle, and we like Lasalle even more if the line drops.  So you bet against kenpom last week and went 24 and 14 which is great. Does anyone one here other than the MagicMan respect kenpoms lines as being something to be on??? Thanks for the input.


I think kenpom is very good and provides a ton of useful information on every single team.  I don't know of any other website that offers that much info.  I like his team rankings and usually his fanmatch prediction are very accurate. 

However, kenpom does not take into account injuries, situations, revenge, and many other things that can influence the line.  SO, when there is a large difference between the two lines, I am going to side with Vegas
 
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Posted: #127
Beaver, what brought u to this do the opposite approach? As of now i can see some logic in ur system because Vandy went to 5, this in my opinion shows sharp action on the dog. Any thoughts on this... would like to hear all sides.
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by Phi131:

For the last 3 or 4 weeks it is at 62% with sides and totals. Just saying...

 

That being said, I do not play the games that cross over ZERO. If KP has one side and Vegas has the other I have thrown those games out as they were losing when fading KP...Maybe MWM has a point, on those.)



I agree with this statement.  See post #1
 
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Posted: #129

In order to have a system that works...you have to understand why the system works.

Can someone breakdown why this system works or will work. I'm not seeing anything rational here

 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by Maiways:

Would Michigan State be a play?

Vegas has them at +2.5 and Ken Po has at +4?



No.  Not yet at least.  There is only a 1.5 difference and there needs to be a 2 point difference to qualify. 

I realize that in order for this to be an accurate system, human error needs to be taken out of the equation....but i REALLY hope that line doesn't move to 2 forcing me to decide weather MSU is a play or not.

I'd like all plays to fade the public.  So far they have, but if MSU moves to +2 that will be a play and right now 80% of the public is on MSU.
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by yejin1227:




Backtracking from 2/1/11 and using only games that are 95% and above : he is 68-4 .

Tonight there are 3 games that are 95% and above :

Coll of Charleston
Kansas
University of Northern Colorado



OK.  I SEEN THE 95% AND HIGHER FOR FEB 21.  AND YES ALL THREE OF THOSE TEAMS COVERED.  SO BASICALLY IF THE PERCENTAGE IS 95% OR HIGHER, ITS TELLING YOU TO GO WITH KENPOMS PREDICTED SCORE?  ALL THREE OF THE PREDICTED SCORES HAD THEM COVERING THE SPREAD.
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

In order to have a system that works...you have to understand why the system works.

Can someone breakdown why this system works or will work. I'm not seeing anything rational here



See post #126
 
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Posted: #133

BEAVER23 WAY OF USING THE SYSTEM WILL GET YOU CRUSHED

 

 
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Posted: #134
How about this question Beaver, when would u side with Kenpom? And where did magic go? I would love to hear more of his thoughts?
 
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Posted: #135

Reading post #126 I would take it that this is a fade the public system?

99.9% of systems don't work... and the reason is people cannot explain why they work...meaning results are just based on chance and standard deviation.

Picking out parameters is easy...explaining why they work is typically much more difficult.

Also back feeding can be very dangerous with systems. Just because something is lets say 39-11 over 50 doesn;t mean you have anything.  Just like if I flip a coin 50 times and heads comes 39 times doesn't mean that I am on to something.

Sides are very very very very difficult to build a system around...your much more likely to find a formula involving totals than you are sides.

Am not saying this won't work...am saying though you need to explain why things happen and understand why things happen in order to correctly pick the future ...good luck

 
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Posted: #136
I have followed the system and like it, although it DOES get confusing at times.  I also like to compare kenPom and Vegas lines with "shirley'slines" although I don't know where to find them unless someone is nice enough to post them.  I WISH I had kept up with the exact percentages but I haven't, but when I find a game that KenPom and shirley both agree on, the percentage of wins goes up dramatically.  NOW let me throw THIS in ~~~ there is a site called CBSSports.con that posts daily selections every day with their predictions of scores.  They hit around 70% of their scores.  When I find a game that ALL these sites agree on, I have only lost 1 game in three weeks.  Needless to say, there aren't that many, but it sure makes the odds better. 
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

In order to have a system that works...you have to understand why the system works.

Can someone breakdown why this system works or will work. I'm not seeing anything rational here

sparty, the rationale here is that Vegas linesmakers are the best in the world at getting people to bet the wrong side. If there is a conflict between the Vegas line and what some computer and obvious human emotion says (such as unranked home teams giving points to a ranked visitor), well............

 
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Posted: #138

Las Vegas doesn't do anything special partner...they win because of two major factors...greed and poor money management.

Books are using mathematics and the Law of large numbers in setting lines...just like they are using it in their regular casino games.

 

 
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Posted: #139

I agree -- it's also getting toward the end of the season and teams are trying to do everything they can to get the best seeds in "the dance."  Just like Kansas last night, they want to win and wind BIG!!  Emotion is something a computer can't put a # on.

 
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Posted: #140
Sparty,
It is simply based on Vegas being better at what they do than kenpom.  kkirby is exactly right.  If you do not believe it will work, do not follow it.  Simple as that. 

I was just looking at a weeks worth of games and happened to find a pattern of winners.  I am not betting huge amounts on these games, just interested to see if the pattern continues.  Like you said, most systems fail eventually.  Only time will tell if this one works or not.
 
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Posted: #141
If Vegas wasn't doing anything different, then the Kenpom line and the Vegas line would always be the same. Both their computers use Intel chips, partner
 
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Posted: #142
The Vegas casino games don't have college kids running around placing bets for the house.
 
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Posted: #143
the good bad and the ugly typical when all beave is doing is trying to HELP!!!!! nobody can predict the future  i dont believe in the coin flipping theory that some may or not be suggesting  id classify that as a REAL GAMBLE with my hard earned coin  yes his plays have a probabilty of losing   evertbodys sided on the losing side once or twice im not going to deny ive lost  beave please keep up the very informative playz  and by tommorow yes these too will become more knowledge to your system in creating the MONSTER !!!!   im with ya brother my vote is simple LEAVE IT TO BEAVER!!!!!!!!!!!! bol bud thx
 
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Posted: #144
Thanks poolman
 
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Posted: #145

I could have sworn I read somewhere on this site that Covers poster "allbees" (sorry if it wasn't you allbees) has already tracked the purely tangible data that places like Kenpom and Sagarin produce vs. the oddmakers lines. And I want to say his sample size is somewhat significant (like over 3 years) and the results showed that the hit rate was right around 52 % favoring the accuracy of the "Vegas" line.

I could be wrong, but I'm almost certain it was something like that. And logically that would make sense to me.

 
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Posted: #146

Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

If Vegas wasn't doing anything different, then the Kenpom line and the Vegas line would always be the same. Both their computers use Intel chips, partner

 

As I understand it the Kenpom line is based on what they feel SHOULD happen, the Vegas line is based upon getting 50/50 action.

 

Vegas may think Texas will only win by 16, but they set the line at 19 to get people to make equal wagers on both sides of the line.

 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by boatboatboat:

 

As I understand it the Kenpom line is based on what they feel SHOULD happen, the Vegas line is based upon getting 50/50 action.

 

Vegas may think Texas will only win by 16, but they set the line at 19 to get people to make equal wagers on both sides of the line.

This is correct.

And that's why long-term (no offence beaverfan) I think you'll find this to be very close to a 50 / 50 proposition. As I'm certain this has been tried before. Like Sparty said, 99% of systems, especially ones of this simplicity, will not work over an extended period of time.

 
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Posted: #148
Pinnacle, if i understand ur post u are agreeing with Beavers system? Also, both the lines for Lasalle and ten dropped in agreement with beaver.
 
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Posted: #149

Vegas does not set lines on a 50/50 premise...thats one of the biggest misconceptions in sports gambling...period

Books are out to get the biggest possible advantage over the player they can. Just like they do in all of their table games and slots.  Vegas is not afraid to set a line that gets 1 way action if they think they have a large advantage over time.  Keep in mind that books have players at a disadvantage from the beginning with the vig/juice. Books are in for the long haul...we as players are in for the short term...big difference

 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Pinnacle, if i understand ur post u are agreeing with Beavers system? Also, both the lines for Lasalle and ten dropped in agreement with beaver.
No, I'm not. I don't think the parameters for his system will yield long term profitability. If you're paying 10 cents juice and hitting 52 % you're not making money.
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