2022 College Football Bowl Season (SUPER PICKS INSIDE-All Games)

Line moving fast toward whisky .... go cowboys.    

I need a bailout winner after that coastal meltdown. I'm praying to GOD Oklahoma state wins this

how many aliases do you have?  you have been a failure under all of them

SSI

Man In The Mirror

The Falcon

Lawton

@chillinghard09

 They’ll cover no problem

@TheReelPhilD

 I’m sad.  Rangel just isn’t it.  Terrible 1H. Let’s hope Gundy turns them around in 2H

@Jever123

  I’m sad.

@Jever123

 Same. It's looking real slim right now. Hopefully OK state gets a stop on the first drive and drives down for a td. Hope they figure it out 

Dude. Ok St going to comeback and cover 

@peter0105

 Lmao

@Jever123

 4 first downs all game.  Rangel is trash.  Can’t believe Gundy recruited him

Still a good record after this loss

Still had almost 3 minutes to go and the loser qb throws a pick. What a cactus

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Wednesday, December 28

Military Bowl

Duke Blue Devils -3.5  ($1050 to win $1000)

I am going back to the well that worked so well in the early going this Bowl Season and that is betting on teams that come into the Bowl Season playing some good football. Duke is one of those teams. Mike Elko has been outstanding in his first season as Head Coach at Duke and the Blue Devils come into this one having won four of their last five games on the season. They are loaded. They are healthy. Central Florida on the other hand is missing a ton of players and QB John Rhys Plumlee is questionable. The Knights are coming off an AAC Championship game loss to Tulane and despite the nine win season might not have too much motivation to compete here. Duke comes into this Bowl Game on a 3 game win streak in Bowl Games and this is their first Bowl Game since Daniel Jones was the QB in 2018. If you look back at the last 12 Military Bowls only two were decided by 7 points or less so this will likely be a double digit win either way.

With issues at QB the only hope UCF have in this game is to run the ball. Even if Rhys Plumlee is able to playn in this one he was one he was the team's leading rusher with 827 rushing yards on the season and 11 rushing touchdowns. Guess what though? Duke has the #24 ranked run defense in the Country allowing only 120.3 rushing yards per game this season and if they can stop the Knights early and dominate the time of possession and take a big lead, UCF just doesn't have the passing game to stay in this thing. The big issue late in the season for UCF was turnovers as they turned it over seven times in their last three games and against a Duke defense that has been really good at taking the ball away this could get ugly fast. Duke has a balanced offense that can really extend drives and they are facing a Central Florida defense that is missing players and that wasn't very good to begin with ranking #72 against the pass and #75 against the run this season.

Central Florida had their big moment and they blew it and now they head "North" for this Bowl Game with injuries. The Knights are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus ACC Conference opponents and have covered only 7 of their last 27 games played on Field Turf. Duke comes into this game 5-0 ATS in their last five Bowl Games, they played really well at the end of the regular season and this group of players will no doubt be jacked to play in their first Bowl Game since 2018. Unlike UCF the Blue Devils love playing on Field Turf going 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games played on this surface and they have covered the spread in 36 of their last 51 non-conference games while also going 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. Give me Mike Elko and the Blue Devils in this one.

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Liberty Bowl

Arkansas Razorbacks -2.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

I love this matchup and what we are about to see is a display of straight up coaching skills. Lance Leipold has done what no other coach has been able to do in forever at Kansas and that is build a winning program that is on the verge of their first winning season since 2008 if they can pull this off. On the other side Arkansas come into this game favored by a lot less than they would normally be but they have quite a few players in the transfer portal and Head Coach Sam Pittman has a pretty big challenge on his hands here. What I love is that a bunch of depth guys are getting a shot at playing for a spot next season. Don't forget Pittman was in charge last year for the big Arkansas win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl. The Liberty Bowl is pretty notorious for producing great (and close) football games but with such a short number I don't have a problem taking the favorite to win and cover.

The key for me in this game, despite all the losses on defense for Arkansas, is the running game. QB KJ Jefferson is still here and is playing in this game and Kansas just can't stop the run. The Razorbacks come into this game with the #9 ranked rushing attack in the Nation at 229.5 rushing yards per game and Kansas has the #115 ranked run defense in the Country allowing 193.8 rushing yards per game this season. Did I mention they also can't stop the pass and Jefferson can do a bit of both having thrown 22 touchdown passes this season and run for 7 touchdowns. Did I also mention that RB Raheim Sanders ran for 1426 yards this season and 10 rushing touchdowns of his own? Kansas went 0-5 SU this season when allowing 230+ rushing yards to an opponent and Arkansas should have an easy time running all over this defense. So for all the talk of this Arkansas defense missing a lot of their starters it doesn't really change much because they already were pretty awful to begin with. We should see some big plays for from offenses in this game but Arkansas has the Bowl experience and they have the playmakers on offense.

Kansas had such a great season and they've already accomplished a ton but I think they'll definitely have interest in winning this game. My only issue is they come into this game on a 1-4 ATS run to end the Regular Season and there is a chance they got too complacent with their accomplishments. In their last 32 non-conference games, Kansas managed to cover the spread in only 9 of those games and they have been notoriously bad (even this season) when coming off a spread loss in their next game out going 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games off a spread loss. Arkansas as a program is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus Big 12 Conference opponents and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl Games. They have a coach that is keeping them motivated even if not in the biggest of Bowl Games this season and with a winning season on the line I have to go with Arkansas and Jefferson to make big plays late to seal this thing.

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Holiday Bowl

Oregon Ducks -13 ($1100 to win $1000)

We are late enough in the Bowl Season right now to start betting on double digit favorites. The rule of fading them only applies in the first 10 or so Bowl Games and it was really golden again this 2022 Bowl Season. Now onto the big boys. The majority will be on North Carolina for this game because they are a 9-4 SU team with a chance to grab 10 wins and make a season of this but Oregon is in the same position. North Carolina lose superstar WR Josh Downs who is going to skip the game as are quite a few other players for the Tar Heels who have the #9 ranked passing offense in the Country coming in to this. When it comes to North Carolina and Bowl Games you can forget about it. They have been awful over the years losing two in a row coming in and losing 5 of their last 6 overall. The Holiday Bowl, which has not been played since 2019, is usually a Bowl Game for blowouts as 8 of the last 11 were won by quite large margins. That kind of fits the bill here with this big spread.

Okay so QB Bo Nix is playing for Oregon and QB Drake Maye is playing for North Carolina but what else can these offenses do and can the defenses get stops? A good chunk of the North Carolina secondary are not playing in this game and that's a huge problem for a team that already ranked #121 against in the pass this season and that ranked #114 in yards per game allowed and #105 in points per game allowed. Oregon has the #9 ranked scoring offense in the Country and they have the #4 ranked yards per game offense in the Country. How in the world is North Carolina going to stop them? With two NFL bound quarterbacks going at it, missing coordinators and players on both sides, this is guaranteed to be a wild Bowl Game. If that's the case it will obviously come down to defense and who can make stops and I think I am taking Oregon and their #75 ranked yards per game defense as well as their #31 ranked run defense over the horrendous North Carolina defense. When this thing gets out of hand late it will be the defense that makes a difference spread wise.

Oregon played well down the stretch and come into this Bowl Game 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the Regular Season. Oregon (and North Carolina for that matter) have been notoriously bad on Neutral Fields and in Bowl Games when it comes to spreads but the Ducks are loading up for a massive 2023 campaign and this could be a showcase even for them on National TV in Primetime. I know a lot will ask about this spread and what exactly is going on but Vegas seems to know what they are doing. North Carolina WR Josh Down is a superstar receiver who had 94 catches on the season, 1029 receiving yards and 11 touchdown catches. In a game where star players are going to shine it's the Oregon players on both sides of the ball that are going to get the job done and cover this spread. Feels like a bit of trap for UNC bettors. Ducks for me.

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Texas Bowl

Mississippi Rebels -3.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

I was looking for some underdog plays today and just couldn't come up with anything I like so I think we are being gifted a day of favorites before the real chaos starts on Thursday and Friday. How fun is it to follow all the drama at Ole Miss with a guy like Lane Kiffin? First he was gone, then he was back and now he's got his guys fired up for a Bowl Game that means absolutely nothing. His guys are fired up because they were badly embarrassed in the Sugar Bowl last season against Baylor and a lot of these guys haven't forgotten about that. I am going against one of my Bowl Game trends of betting on teams who are playing well heading into the Bowl Season because in this case Texas Tech is coming off some huge wins to make it here (including beating Oklahoma in the finale) and Ole Miss comes into this game having lost three straight games but it's hard to blame them with what was going on in the media. Aside from the loss in the Sugar Bowl last year Ole Miss has been insanely good in Bowl Games winning 14 of their last 18 dating back to 1990. Texas Tech lacks a bit of experience on the Bowl side of things with this being the maiden run for Head Coach Joey McGuire. I think that matters against a team looking for a bounce back performance. 

It's very simple for Ole Miss. Run the ball well and win. The Rebels are 6-1 SU this season when rushing for 200+ yards and Texas Tech has the #89 ranked run defense in the Country coming into this game. Not too bad I guess considering they are in the Big 12 but is the #3 ranked running offense in the Country really going to be held to under 200 rushing yards in this game? Very unlikely. On the flip side of the ball this is the QB Tyler Shough show and he is going to try and display what he did all year leading Texas Tech to the #13 ranked passing attack in the Country. Having said that Ole Miss has gotten so much better on defense over the years and have the #57 ranked pass defense in the Country and they should be able to get some pressure up Shough. Because their offense scores so much, so fast and so often, the Rebels defense is used to teams throwing all over them. My only issue with Texas Tech is their turnovers. They are killer and they do it a lot turning the ball over 3+ times in five games this season. Ole Miss does not have that problem and in a game that should see points I'd rather be on the side of the team that takes care of the ball.

Texas Tech comes into this game lacking experience and it will matter. Like I said before the Ole Miss Rebels are coming in with Sugar Bowl loss to Baylor last year on their minds and they get to face a Texas Tech team that is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Bowl Games. Now they have a first time head coach at the helms. Ole Miss on the other hand is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Neutral Site, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Bowl Games and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Unlike so many other teams in the Power 5 conferences the Rebels don't lose any key players to the portal for this game I think they avenge that Sugar Bowl loss with a blowout win in this one to restore the Lane Kiffin era after it almost ended a few weeks ago. Rebels run over Texas Tech.

3 favorites covered in a row to end yesterday and you have all 4 favs on wed to cover? 

7 favs covering in a row in bowl games is unheard of 

@JFelty

 good thing no ones tailing you and your prayers, utah state boy

@SubParScrub

 LMAO.  

@TheReelPhilD

  We got this bro....

Only one that scares me is Arkansas. A lot of ups and downs all year

On a side note, a lot accusations going on in this thread, a little scary involving other posters!!! GL Phil! LFG

@haymo

 Agreed. A big reason why folks stop posting their picks and analysis. If people have an issue, stop following. I thoroughly appreciate the additional work and insight these folks decide to share and it helps me make a decision one way or the other. At the end of the day, it's your own personal decision on what to play.