BOWL GUIDE 2021-22

Sparty +5 looks like a good value pick at this time.

Considering that they are currently 1 to 2.5 favs.

@bookieassassin

 great post! The BEST! thank you! for all the winners! B.A.

@bookieassassin

 navy and under!!! THX!  TREMENDO and dead cold pick   the very best, that you trul are!

Good stuff. Have a great bowl season. 

Do y’all still like Michigan state if walker doesn’t play ? And assuming Pickett does play 

Bowl Season!!  Lets have some fun and enjoy the holidays and of course, watch some college football !!!

Click on to the following link to join --> NCAAF Bowl Games Pick 'Em Pool

Any leans on the Friday games ? 

Toledo vs mtsu- think mtsu hangs tough 

n ill vs coastal - tough game but think coastal

flexes their muscles …. N I’ll might look like the favorite though no idea 

@bookieassassin

 re: POST #75  please! thank you B.A.need you to comment, advise, etc.! thank you B .A .

Winners1914, you already placed the bet and Pickett is sitting out now. The line is now -2.5, you were late and still got CLV, let that shot ride my man lol

don't forget to check conference vs conference - bowl history / team trends

  $$ CUSA has now covered 21 of last 25 vs the MAC $ teams that fought to get to 6 wins - have now covered 27 of last 38 bowls

    $ 7/8 MTS bowls have now gone OVER (same HC)

STRATEGY

1) Identify the SPOT

    * are they FOCUSED?

         $$ is this where they wanted to be, when season began?

         $$$ has their story 'been written, or is their more work to do?

             >> is the bowl IMPORTANT, or anti-climactic?

    * immediate bowl history

    * HC's bowl history

    * conference VS conference?

    * direction of program?

2) Pick the SU winner

      * winner usually covers, esp, in early games

      * bet the short dog on the ML - larger too, maybe smaller

3) Who will be available? - players / coaches

      * must go to local news/ team website - DIVE IN

      * is HC likely to leave before bowl? - better wait and see

4) Is there a match-up edge that can change the game?

      * can the favorite IMPOSE their will?

      * can the dog DISRUPT what the fav. likes to do / strip their IDENTITY?

5) As always- WHEN and where can I get the number I want?

     * recall following the movement is usually fine

     * be PATIENT, esp, with dogs

IDEAS

bet the 'story line' - esp. in early games ... later (when both teams are more focused) consider the match-up a bit more

IF A TEAM IS DOWN AT THE HALF, BY 7 PTS OR MORE - they ain't coming back... unless they have a player that can put the team on his back

  * last 5 years: 13X in about 190 games

       <12/25 - ONCE

      12/26-30 - 6X

       > 12/31 - 6X

follow the line movement - in bowls, the line movement is CORRECT about 64% of the time - (don't be a contrarian in bowls)

teams that busted their azz to get to 6 wins in their (final) game - are 70% ATS in bowls last few years

    * if they stunk the (previous) year (won <3) it's 74%

    * any 6 win team as dog - 64%

Game matters to team A, more than B - look to play A

    >> Matters to neither? - play total (over?)

    >> Matters to BOTH? - total (under?)

*interim* coaches don't matter as much lately

AVOID the 'bubble-burst' team - EXPECTING a play-off spot, then shot down at last minute? almost impossible to then prepare for a lesser bowl.... don't think BCS it ever happened, play-off era only a few

a team start slow in the season, then finish strong? - look to fade

    >> fast start / weak finish - look to play (opposite of what most think)

watch out for the BOWL VIRGIN - you think they'll be ready, but HC may use the trip as a REWARD - not really caring about the result

a senior heavy team off a disappointing year? - may play hard, BUT may be there to chase azz and get drunk

long lay-offs give a team (with a strong D) a huge edge - esp. early in a game

play the team with the better:

  * QB

  * DEFENSE

  * ST - ability to leverage/tilt the field in their favor

  * ability to force TO / avoid giving ball away

don't forget a possible crowd edge, or effects of weather, (on the total or match-up)

@bookieassassin

 B.A. plz! what about mich st. $ line??? 

MSU / PITT - Pitt QB and MSU RB are out.... supposedly Walker's ankle is not 100%- so didn't wanna risk further and costly injury- Pitt QB didn't WANT TO PLAY.

    >> I would wait (on MSU) can't see line going above 3 (with RB out). Still like Sparty to win game. I will add to my play later (try to get close to P?).... So any play on MSU I would let ride for sure.... if haven't bet yet, just wait and see which way line goes..... Pitt has a few that might opt out for sure...don't think Sparty will ? 

total-  no (full game) totals don't think man - later games 1H under, a few 2H OVERS maybe early

UAB - tough call, BYU maybe different as far as bowl disappointments go (maybe it's the MAGIC UNDERWEAR)- UAB struggles when playing stronger teams... GTTH UAB plays tough for awhile - BYU RB takes over 2H

ND - Irish win a close game

OU - bet is on Bob Stoops - ain't coaching this one to LOSE....should have great fan support. Ducks should have more opt-outs?

Army - like them more off Navy loss, not less man - Navy WANTED IT MORE - that's it

Georgia- STAY AWAY FOR ME ...I've been wrong far too much about Michigan .... BUT I do see Georgia as like 2010-15 Bama > can't beat 'em unless you have a wide open O / with great running QB - so lean Dawgs

yep zero reason to buy out of Sparty - unless Pitt QB played .... then maybe wait for line to shoot up

Tonite - look to play CC 2H - maybe TT better

     >> *probably* QB's last game there / should finish strong ....... tough to see NI D hold up if CC gets rolling

Saturday

* WKU 2H

* UTEP still OK at 12' - issue is how much Fresno QB plays ....if he plays a lot they could pull away 2H (look to buy back 2H maybe?)

* UAB 1H / BYU 2H

* love EMich as always - if haven't bet WAIT to get 10 or more - Liberty QB (incredibly) is playing it looks like....an UGLY match-up on paper you bet - EM should cover and/or win outright - they'll play their AZZ off here... I'll have them on the ML too

* OSU / USU - tough call - lean Beavs for me

* Like my Herd +6 ... should be good game ... small play at 5 maybe OK ....lower maybe just play ML small ............

trends for Saturday .....

MTW - SU winner has covered 24/25 bowls !! as 7+ dog - 13-2 ATS

    >> vs P12 8-1 ATS

CUSA - fav usually covers their games

MAC - covered 19 of last 56 as dog

BELT - dogs have covered 31/48 in their games (either team)

INDY- if favored 13-1 SU / 9-5 ATS

TONITE - CC is playing in the same bowl as LY - lost to Liberty last second - so they (should be) highly motivated to win here, esp. in QB's final game (with them probably)

adding really small

CC 3Q -4'

*typically really strong for CC / weak for NI / don't wanna lay 7'/8 .... or TT is 20' juiced

@bookieassassin

 When you say line movement is correct 64% do you mean the steady movement early on or late movement?

LINKS

ODDS

https://www.wagertalk.com/freeOddsPage/page.html?sport=L2 MATCH-UP / PR /

STATS

https://legacy.donbest.com/ncaaf/matchups-classic/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32794825/college-football-updated-sp+-rankings-championship-week http://www.cfbstats.com/2021/national/index.html

CONFERENCE STUFF

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/2021/index.shtml

INJURIES / AVAILABLITY

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2021-college-football-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-injuries-coaching-changes https://content.sportsdirectinc.com/football/ncaaf-injuries.aspx?page=/data/ncaaf/injury/injuries.html

  * Don Best is ok but isn't updated much this year

ATS

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/

PREVIEWS

*newsletters - VSIN has a great one at $20 or so ...Gold Sheet, Marc Lawrence and others do weekly....you can find them FREE if you dig (LZ posted a thread a few weeks back) * usual spots - ESPN / CFN / Athlon etc....need ESPN+ for most

G5 stuff

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/

yeah shoulda clarified ffs ha ..... just saying you contrarians be careful

$   seems like - 'If line moves 4 points or more towards a given team, that team covers 64% of the time'.....totals 56% or so

   >>  just overall movement ... going back like 25+ years, from maybe 2 years ago - didn't update myself

Bowls a bit different - rule is generally "respect early movement / fade late" .........

Good stuff thanks

What a great thread this is, thank you so much BA for all your hard work. 

Good Luck going forward!!! 

@bookieassassin

 great post #91   B.A. thank you . right here with you, all the way! let's win! and may luck be with us!

I like BYU today, it's not where they wanted to be but Sitake signed a deal the school called 'unprecedented' without releasing the terms so it would not be a good look for him to not have the team prepped and ready to go.  Also remember BYU is one of the chippiest teams out there (kind Mormons my ass) and if UAB runs their mouths we may see a Memphis-like brawl at the very least!