Bowl thread 2010....

My thoughts on Utah....

Boise is scary - not on offense - but because of their defense.  They are the best statistical defense in the country, EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR SCHEDULE STRENGTH.  That is not good.

My numbers have it right at -17, but I am betting this because of gut and what I feel has to be a horrible spot for Boise.  I cant make a case for Utah by comparing X's and O's, or by any stat - the only case I make is what I think will be a huge letdown spot for Boise (for all of the obvious reasons), and a huge overachieving spot for Utah.

I realize this is a "soft" debate for taking a side in which I think the spread is just about right, but 17 points with a very motivated solid team will do it for me.

Would I be surprised if Boise beat them 52-7?  Nope.  But I would be more surprised if Utah doesnt keeps it tight all game.

Sir -

I am not being "funny".  I am telling you what I saw on the play. 

The only thing FOR SURE you absolutely cant tell is where the ball goes after it is fumbled, and I think that is why they couldnt overturn the call.

But if you have a review of the play, watch the side judge.

I am not sure about anything on that play, and certainly wont speak for the refs - and we may never actually know the truth for sure - but I will tell you how I think it went down - and how you would think it went down too if your volume was muted.

I think the review was for possession, and they couldnt rule on it because it was inconclusive.  Would I bet my life on it?  Hell no.  But I think you should reconsider your stance on it until you have time to review it again.

Like the play.  Gonna try a little ML as well, waiting for a better $$$.

BTW - forecast for tomorrow nights game is lots of rain from now up until and possibly through gametime, along with some wind.

The worse the weather (especially the wind), the better it is for Utah.

I cant see how it gets to -2.5, but Im surprised it is getting to -3 too.

At -3 it is a strong 2 units, pushing 2.5 depending on the price at -3.

To clarify, I will have 2.5 units on SDST if I can get -3 at about +100.  Otherwise, 2 units.

BTW - an interesting note....

I have Boise as the best statistical team in the nation.  My stats would have them favored against anyone in the country on a neutral field, including Auburn or Oregon.

My adjusted (for strength of opponent) numbers have them as best on defense in the country, and 6th best on offense in the country.

I keep hearing of more and more rain in Las Vegas, along with fog and wind.  Im hoping for a slippery slopfest (even though it is artificial turf) with the throwing opportunities limited.  Cut down the number of plays in the game, cut down long plays, and I will take 17 in a run dominated game with Utah.

Some more interesting tidbits on Boise's practice (or lack thereof) and Kellen Moore's distractions:

BRONCOS SHAKE RUST

Boise State practiced Saturday and Sunday in Las Vegas. Those are the first two game-plan practices in the Broncos’ standard schedule.

They only practiced three times in Boise after the Dec. 4 regular-season finale against Utah State.

“We got two good days down here, for sure, which sometimes is easier said than done with traveling and distractions,” Petersen said. “But I thought the kids practiced hard and practiced well.”

MOORE’S TRAVELS

Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore made his first visits to Disney World, New York City and Las Vegas in an 11-day span this month.

Up next: home.

“That’s what it will be on the 23rd,” he said, “I’ll just be hanging out in Prosser (Wash.) for a while.”

Moore, a Heisman finalist, visited Florida and New York City as part of the college football awards circuit.

That is always the million dollar question, isn' it?

From what I'm seeing both these teams are more than willing to turn it over, however, neither opponent appears to truly capitalize on the others weakness. (how you actually quantify it I couldn't say). 

SDST threw a truck load of picks, but Navy's secondary is so pourous I doubt they can capitalize much.  Navy appears to play with their hands dipped in ice, yet SDST doesn't appear to have taken advantage of or created many fumble opportunities.

My thought is SDST with that balanced attack should score at will, but Navy should hold their own as well.  The weather appears to be a non-factor.  Rain today but high 50s low 60s at game time.   Leaning "over" 60.....

Best of luck Vanzack and thanks for the great write ups!

Van- I always love your takes, especially around bowl season, but I have to think the sloppy field will benefit Boise more then Utah. Given your high ranking of their Defense, I believe they will completely shut down UTAH on a bad field. I also think that you might be underestimating Boise's motivation in this game. They might have blow the biggest chance EVER to play in the SHIP and will want to leave one last statement game out their for the world to see. It won't work obvioulsy, but they (the team and coaches) will feel better. Boise by 30 is my take.

At some point (I am guessing pretty early) UTAH will realize, they are not in the same UNIVERSE as this team.

AL-

A 30 point win won't work in the eyes of the public- but it will ease the pain of the players and coaches from Boise State. They will not mess around with this team-DO NOT BET on UTAH because you think their will be a lack of motivation from Boise. That is all I am saying.

I cant really argue with your position - if Boise comes to play, they should win and probably cover.

But a bad field, and bad playing conditions - adds higher variance to the equation - more turnovers, more "chance" (for lack of better word) for Utah to cover the big number.  We will see....  But Im hoping for rain, wind, and Utah to hang around....

I would have them favored over anyone even after their loss to Nevada!

I didnt see your thread or I would have defended you, but winnning a debate at covers is like coming in second place at a satellite poker tournament.  In the end, who cares?

Van-

You the Man! I hate going against you! You and Bator come from angles No one else sees- I dig that about you!!

Cheers and good luck -just not tonight!

BTW - from last nights fumble controversy.....

From the Hattiesburg paper:

LINK

Early on in the drive that led to the field goal, Louisville running back Bilal Powell lost the ball on a 1-yard carry from his own 20-yard line. Fedora challenged the ruling that he was down by contact, and the replay appeared to back up the USM coach’s claim. But the Sun Belt officiating crew decided that the call should be upheld, drawing a boisterous argument from Fedora.

Fedora said after the game that the officials agreed that it was a fumble, but there was inconclusive evidence on who recovered the ball.

Thanks - GL to you too.

I have it as almost no impact other than if he gets hurt, there is no qualified backup.  But Im not sure there is a dropoff at all, certainly not big enough to take in to account in terms of points on the line.

Thats my take.....