Bowl thread 2010....

Here's my paste from Badlands thread...........

The field has turf does it not.  I think a soaked field favors Boise greatly. Combine a solid running game with QB Moore's very accurate passing in short and medium routes, and I think you'll see Utah's defense slipping all over the place.  Conversely, Boise's defense has much less to cover, given the week offense offered by Utah of late.  Bottom line I like the tease on this one....

Boise -10 1/2 & Under 63 1/2...........

Here's my paste from Badlands thread...........

The field has turf does it not.  I think a soaked field favors Boise greatly. Combine a solid running game with QB Moore's very accurate passing in short and medium routes, and I think you'll see Utah's defense slipping all over the place.  Conversely, Boise's defense has much less to cover, given the week offense offered by Utah of late.  Bottom line I like the tease on this one....

Boise -10 1/2 & Under 63 1/2...........

My thoughts on Utah....

Boise is scary - not on offense - but because of their defense.  They are the best statistical defense in the country, EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR SCHEDULE STRENGTH.  That is not good.

My numbers have it right at -17, but I am betting this because of gut and what I feel has to be a horrible spot for Boise.  I cant make a case for Utah by comparing X's and O's, or by any stat - the only case I make is what I think will be a huge letdown spot for Boise (for all of the obvious reasons), and a huge overachieving spot for Utah.

I realize this is a "soft" debate for taking a side in which I think the spread is just about right, but 17 points with a very motivated solid team will do it for me.

Would I be surprised if Boise beat them 52-7?  Nope.  But I would be more surprised if Utah doesnt keeps it tight all game.

I would have them favored over anyone even after their loss to Nevada!

I didnt see your thread or I would have defended you, but winnning a debate at covers is like coming in second place at a satellite poker tournament.  In the end, who cares?

BTW - if you are a Utah buyer tonight - I wouldnt be too surprised to see -14 before gametime.

Once the news of the weather spreads, the line is going to continue to drop.  Im in at +17, but the current line is 15.5 and moving south.

AL-

A 30 point win won't work in the eyes of the public- but it will ease the pain of the players and coaches from Boise State. They will not mess around with this team-DO NOT BET on UTAH because you think their will be a lack of motivation from Boise. That is all I am saying.

If I got 5 pts with boise over oregon that might be my play of the year!! 

I gotta be honest....

Clicking around covers and seeing about 9 out of 10 threads on Boise makes me feel a little bit better about my bet on Utah.