@Last2thirst
Of course they are that fits into what I was saying in my research thesis lol .. they obvi felt like they had to accept a bowl bid being in the SEC then found a way out ... cowardly a-holes .. covid only happens in the SEC in december it appears... and only for the worst disaster teams playing in crappy bowls .. duh
Thank you for your feedback Bridge. I took over 57 in Nevada game with 11 minutes to go I need a TD which I hope to get. Total 79 BYU game so will forget that. Thinking +6 for UCF but having trouble deciding. May take a college or pro basketball game instead. Again thanks for your input. 
3. TULANE / NEVADA ... OVER 56.5 
@robtri
Ha yeah thanks it sure didn't feel so great with like 3 minutes left and pratt getting sacked 5 times in a row or something terrible .. some wind was expected but they were in like 30MPH not 17 or whatever the forecast was .. that first missed EP made a chain reaction of 8 unrealized extra points plus the TD left on the one inch line in first drive .. 14 points squandered and we had to get a little lucky late .. 2nd time I had to eek out what shoulda been a 100% SURE FIRE total over .. Fres St / Wolfpack put up 43 in H1 needed 59 .. 2 punts and 8 turnovers in H2 .. had to get lucky that time too super late .. whatever we won.. BOOM!
OK GOOD START!
BYU -3.5
BYU / UCF TOTAL OVER 70
TULANE / NEVADA OVER 56.5
@Skydome .. way to lay off the total dude, awful end for anyone who took at 72 or more I thought they were gunna get a memory for one more player in their magic season .. wasn't BYU's fault either UCF squandered what coulda / shoulda been a monster total here .. hope you also lay'd off my UCF + points advice too .. man like I said my advice after I play a game is just not the best so hope you saved a few bucks .... onward ..
BRIDGE BOWLS
10. BUFFALO -4
For some odd reason it seems Buffalo losing their conf champ means highly motivated / unfinished business and for Marshall this means season goals dashed and time to pack it in .. in part we see THE GREAT Buff RB Patterson is playing along with (also great) RB Marx and Marsh got guys dropping out like flies including big OL Ball, couple guys on D and THE GREAT RB Knox is heading to NFL school .. this offense could really be inept without him if Wells doesnt SNAP THE F OUT OF IT and start commanding this team .. Marshall's backup is not bad but has never carried the load that Knox has for a couple years 20+++ reps .. Also Leopold at Buffalo rebuilt that whole program from absolute zero worst team in the FBS to perennial MAC Bad Ass and alot of these players were there a few years back when times weren't good and 100% they wanted that MAC Champ trophy for the guy .. well .. gunna have to settle for this bowl game .. and recall they really showed up ready last year vs Charlotte pounded them into the dirt ...
All that said I really hate betting against Doc in a bowl game .. think its 5-1 SU and ATS .. maybe better .. lost to really good UCF team LY .. maybe means they want to get the winning back but we can see that Marshall really lost their mojo waiting around to play RICE and got dominated Wells with 5 picks .. team fell apart and did play tough vs UAB but man again Wells stunk the whole thing up .. without Knox they aren't the same and bundle of other players jetting out is a bad sign .. Comes down really to whether Marshall's really good run D is gunna stop patterson / marx .. if so then getting 4 here could be trouble .. def hesitant to play the total .. obvi would lean under but we just don't know the motivation or how Marsh's O is gunna do .. Buff can stop the run so going with the motivation gut here and .. GO BULLS!
FUN BETS ..
UTSA ML / UNDER 56.5 ... 9.3/1
WKY ML / UNDER 51 ... 3.8/1
COMBINED ... 48/1
Here's a group of games where it feels like the path to victory is getting the under to hit .. ie can't see W.Kentucky winning if G.State hits their team total of ~26 so only path to victory is an under .. Bowl season produces its fair share of underdog winners so gunna take a stab at a few of these and RR combos and gunna start adding the ML dogs into the portfolio .. think each of these have something to offer with the correlated under
ULL should be able to run UTSA into the ground but think its unlikely Cajuns are showing up overly motivated after the way the SUN Champ game got coviet cancelled and UTSA there is no doubt showing up here .. Sincere McCormack is just as legit a RB as anything the Cajuns have and UTSA also has a pretty sneaky good defense .. really them hanging tight with both UAB and BYU .. Also note some wind possible in Dallas that day... could have some impact since SMU stadium is open at the south end and any stiff wind shouldn't have a problem finding its way in ..
WKY had a really rough run but they did hang in there this year, won their last 3 including Charlotte .. the record doesn't say much but they're able to hold down a decent enough offense and score a few then they can pull this one off .. G.State has a hit and miss O and WKY D should be able to match up here .. and very possible Hilly's find a few points although Panthers D is capable of playing up too .. either way WKY wins if the D shows up .. trouble if not .. should be motivated to get this bowl slot on a 3 game win streak .. we'll see!
Hey Bridge no I took UCF -6. Was surprised they got beat that bad and it started rolling once game began. Won the over in Nevada game you predicted. Won money back on UCF game by taking NBA Clippers. So ended up winning. Deciding whether to play FAU under tonight along with the Georgia Southern game. Thank you for your input I can tell you are very passionate with football. Good luck tonight.
@Skydome
Thx yeah I'm on G.So and FAU under for fun bucks .. The G.So line is really trying to make that unattractive huh ... think they might be putting it there for a reason .. my read on it anyway .. Glad you made that money back, yeah my late advice after the line moves is sometimes play the other way and wow did that one not work out .. BYU went off like a bomb super explosive and wildly successful maybe 99.9993% lol .. great year .. has to be a fade next year right?.. no way they show up with all those cannons and much much tougher schedule .. we'll see .. good luck!
@TIPOF-THE-SWORD
Yeah saw that but i mean was the play calling great this year?... Couldn't have been they were looking like a better team than last year, SEC was clearly worse and had more offensive options than just Wildcat run with Terry and somehow offense was more boring than last year and just never grew into anything but a pound yer ass run game .. worked best when they had a solid advantage up front and I think they got that here so maybe I could just call the plays on this one ..... Rodriguez right .. Rose left ... Smoke up the middle .. Wilson pass to tight end once in a while .. repeat .. lol .. Plus sounds like from the presser that coach has the full roster working no new opting outs / injuries.. sound motivated and they have good amount of time to get ready .. wouldn't worry too much about them gaming around Gran's absence too much its just whether NC State can stop this ground attack, I don't think they will .. of course .. I was wrong about UK coming into this year .. thought they'd grow as a team and maybe be a dark horse contender late in their division kinda like an Indy of the SEC ... well that sure as heck didn't happen lol .. good luck buddy 
BRIDGE BOWLS
11. ARMY / W.VIRGINIA UNDER 43
Glad we got this one and we get to hit this total in the 40's .. Ask yourself what is it about Army or other SC games that really burns the clock up?.. other teams inability to avoid 3 to 4 yards per carry on the ground .. WV is coming in on short notice after getting ready for Tennessee ... After those self loathing Vol bastards dropped out WV thought they were out too so have to dust off their super duper HARD CORE triple option handbooks in a BIG HURRY .. Recall these idiots got rid of their really good DC Koenning at the start of the year when that whole 'oust your coach' movement was going on .. of course nobody couldn't accept an apology in the face of claimed insensitivity so left without a DC all year and Neal Brown said the position groups will start "sharing" the DC responsibilities ... his one accuser opted out of this year .. of course .. Miraculously they actually pulled together a pretty good defensive performance but let's be fair though the talent on D is super solid ..
So teams that want to play - check.. both good D's - check .. WV maybe trouble stopping the real clock draining ability of Army's option - think its a check too ... WV long time Def coach jeff castele been there for many years and G.So maybe one option team played back in 2015.. coaching staff mostly from Troy and maybe remember G.Southern's version of the option from then but alot of the coaching experience looks like no real option experience certainly not on an option team from my quick look over .. you get one unit or really one guy not doing their job and things don't go real well so we'll see what happens .. Offensively WV just ugly even with decent QB numbers .. Kans/K-st/FCS put up 30+ .. didn't top 30 otherwise, 6 vs Ia.St, 13 vs tex, 27 vs T-Tech in a loss, .. idk .. if they get leverage on O maybe it goes over if Army can help out and score idk 14 points .. Clearly WV wants to play a bowl game or coulda jetted out, haven't heard of any drop outs and clearly Army also wants to play and their D has been so incredibly good to us this year that there's just no reason not to lean on them again in a bowl play ..
Def another game where it seems like Army will have trouble winning if WV can score so taking that Army ML might want to parlay under like ..
Looking at ...
SJSU / BALL STATE .. total 63 and while we look at these teams like oh man gunna light it up, if SJSU can control this game they really know how to control the score .. funny feeling we're a few points too high here .. would wait till we get closer as now that we had 3 total overs LOTTA BIG PLAY OFFENSE early I think we can start expecting totals to rise for anything that's perceived to be a scoring bonanza .. this one might be 31 14 or something, SJSU D is no joke..
@thatkidquade27 .. sure thing!
BRIDGE BOWLS
1. BYU -3.5
2. GA.STATE / WKY UNDER 54
3. TULANE / NEVADA OVER 56.5
4. BYU / UCF TOTAL OVER 70
5. CLEMSON / OHIO STATE OVER 65
6. FLORIDA / OKLAHOMA OVER 69
7. UTSA / ULL UNDER 60
8. COASTAL -5
9. UAB -6 - CANCELLED
10. BUFFALO -4
11. ARMY / W.VIRGINIA UNDER 43
other stuff..
Smaller.. from my various posts .. if making it a BP it'll be whatever current line is ..
-FAU / MEMP UNDER 52
-KENTUCKY -2.5
-SJSU / BALL ST UNDER 63
FUN BETS
-UTSA ML / UNDER 56.5 ... 9.3/1
-WKY ML / UNDER 51 ... 3.8/1
-ARMY ML / UNDER 43 .. BoL not letting me parlay it.. will do when avail..
***IMPORTANT NOTE***
We're off to a good start but it doesn't mean the good times are gunna roll .. I had a great beat on BYU but the couple totals really eeked in there .. even though I thought we were on the right side on those there's just so many wacky things happen in bowl games we can't account for ... 35 MPH winds in boise we were kinda lucky the matchup won the day and produced the points there.. could have gone the other way ... Who'da thunk that UCF would be just so ugly on O that we'd be xx'ing our fingers to get to 70 and kneeling would kill the deal for MANY there.. vegas def called in at that time out and said don't score there lol .. One more thing goes wrong way for us and coulda lost both those totals pretty easy .. All Bowl games are unique and have any number of idiosyncrasies to them and that we happened to pick a few early doesn't mean we're gunna keep be bullying these bookies all bowl season ..
I'm putting money I can afford to lose on these games even if I tanked every single one of my plays from here .. wouldn't feel good .. question my sanity .. never be seen again sure but I wouldn't get hurt .. word to the wise .. don't do point break last bank heist of the season looking for a big score and go for the vault and get busted..
Now that we've had a few big totals and some fan favs with big wins let's start monitoring those line movements .. we just had a totally insane line movement on BYU total was 81 for a min up from 69 .. 12 points and I'll bet most people got hit hard on it even when BYU had maybe the most wildly successful and explosive offensive bowl game maybe ever on a % play basis.. these bookies understand gambling behavior .. they know after a few fan favs like appy state blow the doors off UNT and total goes sailing over that yer gunna start betting that way.. here's a few games I'd watch out for..
Hou/Haw total .. yeah sitting at 59 right now hasn't moved since open .. gee.. if I'm the bookie I wouldnt try to lay a trap here for you lol .. another houston game with 20+ players out .. Hou's D is actually pretty deep so maybe more O impact here?... think if there were a few players out on D we'd see total move up a bit .. Hawaii actually not terrible pass D, their run D stinks tho / could lead to some scoring and Graham at least at ASU had his fancy 335 blitzing D that was just all or nothing .. often nothing .. doubt Haw does much of their own scoring here and that might be what drives this total down ..
UF / Okla total .. yeah I bridge play'd the over at 69 and actually a little worried ... note that Okla D got LEGIT better down the stretch this year after early troubles and struggles .. and we don't know what good players are opting out for UF/OU yet .. Actually wouldn't surprise me if OU pulled a mild shocker and blew this UF team out .. watch out for this game..
Coastal / Liberty at 59 .. Coastal is gunna run this ball right up their azz all game and prob take a bit of time scoring .. if Liberty can't run successfully they'll really struggle passing which is their 2nd option in the RPO whatever you call their offense .. primary is QB taking off ... Coastal doesn't F around, even giving BYU 400 yds they only got 17 points .. Troy put up 38 in that last game after the BYU win.. let down city .. before that 27 highest total vs ULL .. drops from there .. it could get to 59 but only will if there's a number of explosive plays and scoring for both are realllly long drives 5++++ mins not these quick scores .. total over lover beware .. if this somehow gets over 62 I don't think it stays there very long ..
Miami / Ok.State .. total 58 .... Pokes O struggled all year and now no chubba, OL was not great and might be up against a reallllly good Miami D here .. DL could feast .. Sanders was awful when pressured moves out of the pocket and often short run or throw the ball away .. not the scrambling playmaker he's been made out to be .. Miami gets their hooks in early and I don't like Pokes doing much on O here .. Miami win and think it's a def under cuz they should struggle against a really good defense .. doubt this moves much ..
Bama / ND .. total 66 .. ballots all in for their heisman so no need for Bama to blow the doors off these guys late with Mac/Smith highlights .. lowest Bama output this year 38 points week 1 .. after that its 40's 50's even 60's .. maybe see if this one can start toppling the 70 pt mark as we get close ..
Is Patterson playing for Buffalo? He hurt his knee last week. Not sure why he would play if not 100%. Kinda like Marshall limping in here as dogs to a MAC squad. Marshalls defense will easily be the best unit UB has faced.....If Wells has a decent game, Buffalos secondary will be accomodating.....I think Marshall gets the win...
Bridge
@TRAIN69
Yeah headlines saying expected to be available and others say play .. agree if not 100% no way you play but if he shows up then thinking no way he sits this game out .. I think writing's on the wall for Wells, easy to write off the 44% comp early vs appy but then 3 games the rush didn't produce all that well FAU, Rice, UAB and he didn't pick up the slack at all and last two with real marbles on the line was a double WOOF.. losing Knox and the good OL is not good news for that offense is my guess .. Not really worried that Crum or Plitt shredded the Bulls D .. on a diff level with diff offense and weapons.. obvi don't like betting against doc in a bowl game tho...
good luck rest of the way train
smaller bet group ..
-FAU / MEMP UNDER 52 ...
Wow that FAU offense STIIIIIINKS .... They need to start getting a little of the mojo going on O like Willie T had in his USF heyday .. if they can do that and keep the D alive then maybe a team to watch out for next year but ... need to make a legit jump and tough to say Tronti is the guy to take them there.. woof.. Gotta think if Memphis had Team Norvell back they'd have been in a better place .. And Norvell would have too .. We'll see if Silverfield can somehow avoid a real slide next year w/out Brady around but so far not liking what I'm seein.. wheels fell off the wagon late this year and really coulda lost this game if FAU was just a tiny little bit less incompetent ..
Smaller bet ...
HOUSTON -9.5
First things first I don't know whose out for Houston other than the 3 guys off to NFL school .... Holgersen quotes very nonchalant about it basically said yeah we've had 15-20 guys out for our games all year and good enough depth really kept the wheels on down the stretch .. Another funny thing is they weren't getting to Frisco till 6pm today .. not a long trip but still less than 24 hrs in town.. end of day I think Holegersen knows why he was brought here and paid tons of money and given lots of resources ... its in part not to crap the bed in your first bowl game... in texas ... Also like Tune .. he's the man .. hope he's not one of the guys out ..
.. heard Graham presser and just sounds like they're happy and surprised to go to a bowl game.. weren't really expecting it didn't mention houston at all what to expect etc.. also mentioned the travel is really hectic Hawaii used to playing the Hawaii bowl and then made plans with their planes to drop kids off in cali for xmas after the game .. also its right after early recruiting.. doing from hawaii prob was not easy / very hectic and while bowl game is cool recruiting is MUCH MORE important for this new staff than time spent planning out the bowl game .. so lot of un-bowl game related work and planning ..... holgersen with much bigger staff and resources = not as big a problem, game close to home, etc ...
I could just see Hawaii not showing up without a good gameplan here .. most teams ran the ball down their throats and kinda expecting Hou to do that here .. again, no idea whose in/out besides the NFL guys but could see that drive the line down and end up being a real misnomer for some 'bowl experts'
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