BRIDGE PLAYS BOWLS

@jwheels86

Yeah J that was kinda my thesis up there .. we have to believe in all the melee of this year that the SEC on the whole is really more/less just another league .. +14 is well over the highest SEC spread I can find in 10 years of bowl data for an SEC team .. past 10 years of reg ssn data I count only 12 times SEC non-con was a 14 point dog or more .. thats out of 154 non-con games ... and thumbing thru the data all the spreads really over a TD were almost all roadies and either down and out vandy or arkansas, s.car, tenn team usually vs some champ level team clem, oreg, seein some l'ville in there, ND, Okla, FSU... about 50/50 ATS in those games +14 or lower  .. I think you get the idea have to believe Iowa is at least as good as last year (i don't think so) and Mizzou really isin't all that good ... personnel issues and motivation maybe have some impact here but keep in mind Mizzou went 5-5 this year.. think preseason win total was maybe 2.5 or 3 ?... do we think Iowa is really much better than Kentucky.. would do better than 4-6 vs their schedule?.. idk I think it would be pretty close..  Mizz beat them 20-10 .. ..  I already hit +14 for a few bucks .. no reason they can't eek out a small win here been doing it all year ..  

I think the worry with the real bottom of the SEC is when we think whether they're in the bowl just because others opted out and they didn't .. nobody in SEC opted out obvi big time conf can't do it .. but possible some of these teams might have if they were in another league and don't have their heads screwed on right to play hard in a bowl game ... LSU did self imposed bowl ban while ncaa investigating them lol.. so they crept out the side door, clearly wouldn't do that if the season went better and woulda had a good bowl game .. unlikely they'd have showed up ready to rock ...  maybe there's a couple other no shows is the worry but still .. doesn't justify those spreads right?... 

O'Miss I'm a little worried about .. might show up but they went for another turnover record last game and wow was it a real beauty .. I could see them struggling vs Indy's D because 100% Hoosiers are showing up looking to revenge last year's bowl and also some solace for getting 'ruled out' (lol) of the big-10 champ game .. so I can't do Ole miss spread here but might be a situation in-game we see Rebs throw one pick and just expect 5 or 6 more coming lol .. 

Bridge I agree with you and thanks for the info on past bowl games, I feel like I can remember a lot of those numbers and matchups off the top of my head.. im really good with numbers and remembering scores and useless things my brain retains or so I always thought, until I learned after my football career was over that I could make money betting on football.. Fortunately iv'e been doing very well for about two decades now from my knowledge growing up playing and watching the SEC in particular. Now many of my former teammates are coaches and even head coaches in the NFL, it's wild. 

I like UNC right now against A&M, Aggies are a solid team but iv'e been waiting for them to play the right team after the Florida win that can expose just how bad Mond has always been and know if UNC forces their hand to throw the football at any point he will crumble the way he always has.. He just is what he is, if the running game doesn't carry them entirely, he will never win the game for them with his arm. Fortunately for mond again, he's still not playing a team with any defense but UNC can score enough to possibly keep them from just running the ball all night. 

I don't expect Ole Miss to just turn it over 6 times, Corral has done it a few games this year but when they just stick to the running game and it does enough to leave that PA wide open like it did against Bama and UF then Corral can put up major numbers. IU is a wonderfully coached team but Ole Miss offense is a train that IU has only seen similar ability to in Ohio State, and they had zero ability to stop them from moving it all over them. Ole Miss is gonna score, IU doesn't have anything offensively that scares me enough not to take a TD or over with Ole Miss.. Ill even get some ML action on the Rebels here 

UNT D just so far beyond pathetic and its gunna give UNT zillions of offensive possessions .. putting my 23.5 TT in jeopardy .. majorly .. ugh, sick!

BRIDGE PLAY BOWLS

9. UAB -6

So putting aside that whole SEC talk for the last 10 posts now lol ... S.Carolina is a bonafied mess .. Seems like only real shot is to knuckle up and play hard defense, much harder than they have in the last month or so .. The offense is truly inept right now in just about every way and defense is not far behind and its not just they played an SEC schedule .. I think this line might even move with the announcement Shi Smith, Huchinson at OL and another LB are declaring for the draft tonight .. coach mentioned he's gunna be fooling around with the OL now which is never a good soundbite heading into the bowl game .. interim coach OC Bobo btw .. that's on top of an absolute laundry list of other players who are on the questionable list for this day after christmas bowl .. Wheels started falling off this team preseason with injuries and opt outs ... after big early win vs Auburn (shoulda lost peep the stats) whatever wheels were left really started falling off left and right .. lost their last 6 games by about an average of 25 points .. Shi Smith seemed to be the one guy they needed to make the O tick and he's out and others leaving we don't know what that impact will be .. can't be good .. 

Total definition of 'throw in the towel' and UAB is 100000% gunna show up looking to pound this team .. I have questions about Johnson at QB .. really don't like him .. but they found another really awesome WR last game BIG DUDE .. I look at this game the way I looked at W.Kentucky going into Arkansas last year .. same scenario and Hilly's blew them to smithereens as 5 or so point dogs.. UAB's D is a real ace in the hole here vs SC's offense too .. Blazers offense gets any leverage on O and we cover this I think pretty easy .. 

Yeah hard to lay points .. G-5 vs SEC team but I'll just say S.Carolina ... maybe more than any other team ... should just absolutely not be in a bowl game and very bad deal getting UAB who is totally competent in the rush and on defense, has good size / talent / desire etc etc all the pieces and were getting a deal cuz they're a G-5'er .. I might end up looking silly here after all that SEC talk above but I don't think so .. 

Good luck!

NOTES... 

Looking at .... Kentucky -2.5 .. might be one of the really good SEC surprises I'm looking for .. S.Car being the bad end of it ..  sounds like they got allll their guys at practice and actually excited to play this game .. I really hate the idea of putting my money with Terry "bonehead idiot" Wilson but those RB's and that OL should blow through that Wolfpack D .. team almost lost to Liberty for god sake and they're a short under a FG dog to Kentucky who maybe had a tough SEC run but was able to do a few things well even if it didn't show up in the win column... NC State layin the hammer on FSU, GT (gave up 260 rushing!), Cuse and eeked the one out with Lib .. didn't really beat anyone good .. VT layed the wood with their run game and think thats what this looks like .. might alos look at team total over for Kentucky possibly at 26.5 or so .. Thinking after the game ^^^ above we might see a few SEC doubters .. lines moving where they shouldn't .. NC State was a hot team this year nice surprise season 8 wins woop! .. think maybe we can get this line to even but if no weird news comes out like Devin Leary's fibula is all healed up then I think this will be a go .. def don't want to get over 3 but again just looking right now .. 

ALSO... ARMY / WEST VIRGINIA!!! ALL RIGHT!!!! .. come on .. give us a total in the 50's!!!!! lol I can only wish .. 

Gotta like a guy who uses the word 'thesis' ...you have my attention now Bridge ...haha   << have always wanted to use the avatar!!!

@Last2thirst

 BAHAHA  .. yeah had 10 posts on the subject.. thought it was germane under the circumstance .... haha did the smarty pants word thing again!!

Think I'm gettin a little carried away now... lol .. 

BRIDGE BOWLS 

1. BYU -3.5
2. GA.STATE / WKY UNDER 54
3. TULANE / NEVADA OVER 56.5
4. BYU / UCF TOTAL OVER 70 
5. CLEMSON / OHIO STATE OVER 65
6. FLORIDA / OKLAHOMA OVER 69
7. UTSA / ULL UNDER 60
8. COASTAL -5
9. UAB -6

GL on your plays

Bridge my book has BYU at -6.5 and total at 75.5. Would you still take the over and the line. Thank you and it was fun to read your thread this year. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Good luck with tonight picks.

@Skydome

 My book is the same.

@Skydome

Sup Sky.. I don't think my 'after line movement' advice has been particularly good this year just a heads up ... now with that out of the way.. maybe see if you can get UCF at +7?... I think UCF could eek a win out here its certainly possible still a good team .. they get that ball out so quick its almost like the big BYU DL might not matter so much ... also if BYU is out ahead by a couple scores good chance UCF is still going for that late TD so I might even be sweating the end of this one at -3.5 .. Total-wise I mean I need 10 TD's to get the tie and 11 to win .. 11 is 77 so yeah I'm still kinda in the boat with you here at 75.5 and maybe a few games out of a hundred I get the win but you wont .. 

Interesting play at this juncture might be just to hit UCF ML / Over parlay its about 4.6 to 1.. nice to keep the risk low, just have fun w it now that the lines have moved ... bowl games just goofy results and ML dogs eek out more than their fair share of wins ... maybe check if UCF has a bunch of players out first but that's been their situation all year and they've been not bad .. 

good luck however you play it!

Bridge may be onto something. BYU has never won a football game in Florida.

nix post

@altacocker

 HEY .. My mistake on the NEVADA / TULANE TOTAL ... nixed the note .. 

BOL is offering standard odds at 55.5 .. 

Still .. I'm a little worried about where the total at and the movement .. I thought it would be sure fire move up ... not as big as the BYU move but at least edge toward 59 ..

Anyway .. I did hedge out about half that bet .. the wind is gunna be up a little and maybe its more of a slug fest than I was predicting .. 

I will be looking in-game though .. Nevada can really throw a one play bomb to any of their good WR's and get a quick score .. Tulane's secondary gave alot of those up this year .. If we see All the Nevada players are in that we want and it's kinda ho-humm early on / Nevada falling behind a little then I think Wolfpack will eventually turn to those kinda BOMB plays and go pretty pass heavy.... in-game total over might be a good play if it drops into the 40's early after some dud drives .. which there should be a few of here .. 

Good luck!

@robtri

Haha .. like 0-3? lol... I like BYU at the price I got it at... 6.5 / 7 and I'm more like meh .. bowl season .. why add more risk here .. 

Total now 77.5 lol ...  knew that would go bananas .. 

Good luck!

Breaking news BYU...3 offensive line starters out for the game including center and right tackle

Also missing starting LB UDO and starting corner Wilcox?

78.5 now .. getting this total to 80?????

Angle to look at .. obvi Vegas has a good understanding of gambling behavior and how to make money off of us .. something I noticed in the bowl data history is there's quite a few of these blowout totals early on and I'd imagine the masses start projecting early bowl outcomes onto later games .. early games often feature these big mismatches and high scores and totals and later on we see parity and totals don't go bananas the same way ..

Totals from start of bowl season to 12/31.... totals 57 or more (above avg) ..
2017 started 4-4 .. went 4-15  ... man they got us that year!!!
2018 start 2-1-1 .. 2-8 thereafter .. got us again!!!
2019 started 5-1 .. finished ok 3-2 ..

We just had app state huge fav BLOW THE DOORS off of N.Texas (WORST D IN CFB!) and my picks predict we'll get a couple more big totals and BYU big fav maybe wins .. if that happens and basically get 3 favs 3 total overs to hit here then FAV / TOTAL OVER BETTOR BEWARE ... my data shows these things really come in bunches and if we leave the idiot glasses on we'll start seeing PURE GOLD on BIG FAVS and SUPER INFLATED TOTALS ...

I'm not some sportsbook industry insider (duh) but don't need to be to know there is no doubt linesmakers are sitting around gaming out how to squeeze all of us with a BIG SEXY HOOK like BIG FAVS/BIG TOTALS ROLLIN IN BOWL SEASON (early on) ..

Anyway .. Just an observation .. 

@robtri

 Yeah that is a concern w the OL but I think backups really strong and they were short a few OL's all this year .. was still blowout city .. Wilcox out is prob not great for them .. still they got 3 great WR's and think if anything now they gotta pass the ball more if run game / OL maybe suffers with the OL's out no?.. 

Yeah I'd be careful laying too many with BYU .. 

Total now at 79 lol .. 

S.CAROLINA / TENN / LSU now all snuck out the side door on the bowls with recently discovered covid issues... sure lol ....  more like A-HOLES accepting bowl bids and realizing they're gunna get STRAIGHT UP PLOWED .. 

@Bridge1

 Notice they are all SEC teams 

Yeah could be kinda heavy wind in Boise 23 mph .. total is 56 .. 

Stadium orientation might block some of it though .. big building on that side not the smallest stadium either big for MW .. check early on see if the ref's pants / coaches hair is blowing around and we'll know quick if this looks dangerous to offenses .. - good luck!