BRIDGE PLAYS BOWLS

BRIDGE PLAYS BOWLS

REG SSN 86-70 55% 

WK16 2-1-1

NORTHWESTERN +20.5 .. Cardiac Cats .... always the best ride in the park!
IOWA STATE +6 .. tie .. holy moses that Cyclone offense is frustrating.. 
TULSA +16 .... so-so pick .. think weather helped .. reliable D came thru..  
BAMA -15 .. .. not a total dud but was a bad pick.. UF WR's + Trask = just unreal. 

Fun year wish it coulda closed out a little stronger .. weakest part of my game, doubt just mine, when the PRs on all your favorite reliable teams get dialed up how do we manage that change in teams going from valuable moneymakers to at market coinflips to overvalued wallet drainers .. vegas very tricky and they know where all that late season money is gunna go .. the same teams you've been winning with all year duh.. hence bowl season such a wallet drainer ... well hope you made a few bucks out of this season's lessons and don't dump it all back on these bowl games.. - good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY BOWLS

1. BYU -3.5 

From last thread .. getting -105 right now on BoL vs UCF .. nothing to bet the farm on, if both teams bringing all QB's and WR's you gotta think total is over a zillion?.. anyway .. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY BOWLS

2. GA.State / WKY Under 54

Couple pretty not bad defenses and WKY really super slow tempo slows the whole game down .. think folks recall Panthers going back/forth with Arkey State that just won't be the case here me thinks.. maybe more like that ULL game with fewer points .. Expect both QB's / run games to have to make the offense work and just don't see alot of points piling up in this one ... (normally) ... Also got a couple underachieving teams both played tough to the end and get a shot to at least go out on a high note .. 

I tend to like GA.State here also but laying 4 in what seems like a slug fest vs a no quit WKY team that did hang in there and didn't fold late in the season .. think I'll pass on that ... Like the UAB/Marsh game .. if you like WKY might as well parlay that with the under I don't see WKY winning if GA-St gets 28 here .. but then again it's bowl season and predicting 2 things to happen can make for a frustrating ending if you know what I mean lol .. 

There might be a couple NFL potential players, GA-St RB, guys on WKY OL .. maybe check if they're in, also WKY QB, whose that gunna be, I know they brought in a new OC or QB's coach and this might looks like a try out for next year at that position.. as it did all year .. 

Good luck!

3. TULANE / NEVADA ... OVER 56.5

Mentioned in last thread and kinda surprised its mid 50's .. Nevada pass game vs Tulane secondary should be legit mismatch... Pack might find they have trouble running vs that BIG WAVE front and could find themselves in a pass only offense especially if they fall behind .. Tulane run game vs Nevada D is also maybe a mismatch ... I would expect Pratt to finagle some run plays of his own and drum up some yards / keep drives alive .. Recall my Nevada / Fresno total over 59 pick .. that was a super duper nail biter on the total .. but almost sealed the deal on it in H1 w like 40 or so points before EPIC meltdown featuring 2 punts and 8 turnovers .. only thing that saved me was Nevada throwing a few BOMBS .. anyway .. shoulda been like 80+ points shootout in that one ..  

Coach quote .. Norvell .. "we're still trying to play our best game".. sounds good to me .. Thinking no way Nevada doesn't show up here and gotta think a team like Tulane will be up for the challenge as well .. underachieving season yes but quality opponents worth showing up for .. good way to go out for either team w a win here especially both coaching staffs back and still in recruiting period .. don't want to look like a dud here .. both QB's should be trying to show off for us a bit here too .. 

OTHER LIKES / THOUGHTS .. 

FAU / MEMP UNDER 52 .. pretty much gotta play any FAU game under .. they have a few guys out like BJ Emmons and Memphis D while not great is pretty stout up front and playing team that pretty much only can run the ball .. yeah sounds good .. flip side like FAU pass D and maybe limit what Tigers can do a bit although if Memphis can run the ball here they should put up some points.. can't call it a BP but getting 52 in an FAU game means go under and Memp not really impressing late this year on offense .. 

APP ST / N.TEXAS .. Not really playing anything here .. I think APP State pass D makes life reallllly difficult for UNT although this is such a low grade opponent in a crappy year that its tough to know if App is reallllly showing up here .. season expectations fell through the floor in just about every way here .. I think APP State QB and that offense do want to go out with a big score here and if everyone's playing / get a pulse on the game that they aren't quitting then wouldn't say don't lay the 19 or 20 here because they could be up that after 3 drives and then prob not looking back after that .. Eagles are def not close to App State's bowl opponent of LY when folks were laying 14+ on the mountaineers vs a scrappy but kinda hit and miss UAB team that played surprisingly well ... maybe good that this game happened so quickly with just a short break to regroup .. if appy waited a month to play these guys I'd say we might have a pretty weird outcome .. total seems like it could go either way .. obvi were supposed to get hooked into betting total over 62 with these teams so maybe over buyer beware but again APP.St offense really disappointing year but could be an opponent we see some fireworks .. 

BYU / UCF .. total over 70 .. yeah just make sure all those WR's and QB's are playing and then don't see this staying real low .. swan song for Wilson and UCF QB doesn't even have a backup .. makings of a shootout and whether mistakes kill it is prob the real question .. 

4. BYU / UCF TOTAL OVER 70 

Ha ... Coogs going around asking if they can play in 2 bowls ... plan got nixed but as noted in my week 16 thread: maybe the one team I thought would 100% for sure be showing up and yeah I think this news kinda confirms that they want to eat whatevers in their bowl and any others left over lol .. yeah feel good taking BYU and also the total over since they're coming in with the right attitude .. clearly .. 

https://www.ksl.com/article/50070656/report-with-rise-of-cancellations-and-opt-outs-byu-had-discussions-to-play-in-2-bowls

BOWL PICKS NOTE... Since I've been posting a few plays already just wanted to drop another note about bowl game handicapping ..  Not gunna repost my note from last thread since this is bowl thread might as well .. Bowl handicapping is not reg ssn handicapping .. There's only 7 bowl games up and I already have 4 plays noted and a couple other likes.. obvi this is alot more about fun and maybe there are one or two games I will really like and have more money one ..  

Couple considerations .. lotta teams that woulda shown up looking like garbage have already opted out .. it does seem like if a team is going to fly around the country to play in Boise .. Mobile Al .. Shreiveport LA .. all these little bowls that you at least have a team that is down with playing because I doubt these are anything but a waste of money and really in the way of the recruiting period / early signing already here .. so does seem like field is vetted for us a little bit and maybe rely a little more that teams showing up are not just dogging it .. otherwise .. why the heck show up .. maybe if we have a down and out team that was surprised they got a bowl invite .. ahem .. UNT .. 4-6 playing appy state ????.. yeah maybe they come in with a nothing to lose attitude but feels like they could also lose by a s-load and not bat a lash .. also on that note .. early bowl games .. before christmas eve/christmas .. seem like there's prob more to rely on but .. that aint' sayin much is it lol ..

Maybe just note that of all these I think BYU total and Nevada/Tulane totals are my favorite - good luck!

Notice anytime an AppSt game had and over set above 55, the under was 6-0. Maybe a play there??

GL Bridge!!

5. CLEMSON / OHIO STATE OVER 65

OSU hasn't seen anything close to this and hit / miss O like Indiana put up 35 on them?.. biggest question hanging over this one .. Fields thumb okay?.. will they get their 20 players back for this one?.. all fair questions but end of the day I think this is just a TOTALLY diff game than the one we just saw and Clem D while pretty good is still gunna give up some points here .. Clem offense def should have no prob putting up their share of points here .. 

I'm gunna bet on OSU recovering and showing up in a big scoring game .. we'll see.. - good luck!

@UNIMAN

 ha yeah could be .. offense disappointed all year .. even vs Campbell in H1.. tight low score game like 10-7 or something ABSURD.... I remember because they then went like 6 for 6 TD drives in H2 of that one got me a cover -35 only to screw me right at the end w a campbell backup QB 95 yard bomb ..  they had like 2 or 3 Super star WR's out this year and nothing really worked quite right for them passing the ball .. also seems like coaches took away the speed elements .. Charlotte game was a slow slug fest .. a few others same way .. 

Yeah Uni I'd never bet on the over here especially w Appy pass D and really just all around D playing pretty darn well this year .. UNT I don't think they'll hit their team total but same time no doubt Appy will insert backups if up big .. If anything I'd just lay the points for fun .. if appy can't score a bunch here they need to fire that HC and OC immediately .. prob should anyway .. terribly disappointing year for team with like 5 all con OL's, all con QB, 3 all con RB's .. pretty good WR in Hennigan and just couldn't figure things out really all year .. that said this is UNT so maybe they go HAM here for last game vs really weak team that generates tons of possessions ..  yeah probably .. can't play total here but hear what yer saying .. 

looking at .... 

OSU +7+++ ?.... man gotta wait for the reports to come back on Fields' thumb and all the players sitting in coviet gulag ... Think this line has to go up after what we saw yesterday plus all that other speculation that no doubt won't be resolved sooner than later .. maybe we get +8 or +8.5... think only way we get +10 is if there's real covid sit outs for Buckeyes just my guess but might get a little line bump regardless .. +8.5 would be a great spot to hit OSU especially if (maybe when) word trickles out the roster is gunna be fine .. Recall last year Buckeyes had this same matchup nailed and no doubt they're gunna show up... we already know that the powers that be will pull every string for these guys even re-write the rules to advance the team along .. fair or unfair is just your opinion .. I'd expect all the coviet college health experts to be pulling every string possible as well to get players into this game .. recall CFP is not conference and while I don't know the dynamics of whose in charge of the coviet rules I wouldn't be surprised if there's a new set of health experts with a cool new set of rules and it just so happens to help the buckeyes out (again) ... obvi can't crash the ratings with a shell of a roster .. that would make them look like total morons after all that forcing the buckeyes into the playoffs etc etc .. you know what I mean .. ratings .. 

Anyway.. looking for better price and let's see what the reports say .. 

Big 10 reducing 21-day rule to 17 days. 

@UNIMAN

haha ... proof... 

6. FLORIDA / OKLAHOMA OVER 69

Oklahoma clearly with much better defense this year but this florida team is just insanely good on offense, nothing like OU has seen .. UT game was a taste and we saw that was back / forth all game ..

I think the main thing here is making sure UF has all their guys .. you know for sure Oklahoma will show up assuming they don't have covid issues but are we sure Toney, Grimes and Pitts is gunna be in this one?.. I think Pitts already declared and other two were really super flakey even about playing this year .. anyone whose top NFL projected player might find this really tempting to sit out after showing off basically everything they needed to last game .. Maybe team rallies around Kyle Trask who you can just tell wanted that one so bad yesterday yelling at everyone end of the game ... total let down.. also got hosed by his teammate with the LSU loss ... And Come on, if they win that one and take bama to the edge then I think no doubt we see UF in the final 4 ... wouldn't mind seeing them in there anyway .. Even w out Pitts think we're good for an epic shootout .. wouldn't drop serious money unless we really really knew who was playing cuz it could be a little awkward if the other super studs aren't in .. if so like the over and like UF -2.5 ..

7. UTSA / ULL UNDER 60

Not sure how a UTSA game total goes this high .. like all other bowl games check the record .. I suspect a few ULL guys might be out, Mitchell for instance just wouldn't surprise me if a few NFL'ers found a reason to not show up .. had Coastal Carolina for the champ game and this is just not gunna be that .. feels like if they don't show up and super duper under the radar UTSA does this could be a coin flip at the end .. Both teams moving super slow, couple good defenses check, super run heavy check .. UTSA also with a decent enough pass D that I think ULL really just has to be focusing on their run game .. they start passing first and it'll be trouble, not that we've seen them do that all year .. 60 just wayyy too many and don't hate UTSA getting 12.5 .. maybe we get a little bump to +14 and almost definitely have to play that .. 

Good luck!

8. COASTAL -5 

So glad we get to see this one scheduled again ... Coastal is really is in another league .. You better make sure before playing BIG they got their covid issues sorted out .. there was a full unit that was gunna be out and idk .. you'd think the bowl people would have this situation 100% assessed before handing out a bid to a game next week .. honestly dont think any of the players would care if half whole team had covid they'd say F it let's play this one full roster and stay home for new years lol .. Coastal is just one team if they're showing up in this one and 100% yeah they will that they'll be way too strong even for a tough awesome and fun Liberty team, two of my favorites unfortunately gotta pick one .. Would also look at under the 59 or wherever its at .. Think Coastal really controls this game and any drives they put together eat up ALOT of time  .. 

Good luck!

MARSHALL / BUFFALO NICE!!!! .. Not sure what the pick is here if any but Bowl people really doing a great job with these matchups!!! .. maybe has something to do with them not needing to follow the conference rules with so many teams opting out?.. idk ... but so far so great can't wait for this one .. Buff doesn't have quite the pass D UAB / Rice does.. think this makes for an interesting matchup .. maybe even a surprise total over 54.5 ?... Buff O / Marsh D wew that's a slug fest .. better makes sure patterson and marks are not sneaking off to NFL camp early .. 

GEORGIA / CINCY !!! .. I had UGA as just about as down and out of a team as there was last year and wouldn't show up to play a Baylor team which was def tougher than this team .. UGA w OL's out, WR's out RB's out just killed Baylor throwing the ball .. I think UGA with Daniels is very likely gunna rip this Cincy D a new one here .. not sure why it's under 7 unless there's tons of opt outs .. Maybe we look to UGA's TT over .. implied right now would be 28 and seems like if Tulsa can hang 24 on them in a monsoon then UGA will figure out 4 more than they did .. Def think they slow Cincy's O way down .. recall Army and some others like tulsa were able to force Cincy into some tough sledding since they have not the greatest RB's and kinda relying on Ritter to run the ball alot since they don't have many real WR threats and Ridder is not the best arm out there .. if UGA is playing substantially all their D then I suspect it'll be really tough sledding here .. 

woah nellie With a few teams opting out seems like a couple SEC teams got bumped in so hard to say play all these SEC dogs but . 12 SEC teams in the bowl games .. usually 10 or so in the modern SEC era say 2015 .. since then theres been 57 SEC bowl games including playoffs and 31 / 57 ATS overall .. favs 21/41 .. dogs last 5 years 10/16 over over +3 is 8/11 .. we have 7 SEC dogs this year alone easily the most .. 2017 there were 5 .. SEC dogs went 5 for 5 that year ..

What really makes things interesting is that the models have almost no data points between conferences and therefore there's almost no way to compare the conferences from a power ranking perspective outside of .. historical.. general expectations.. last years results, etc .. more likely we're getting spreads that are trying to compare #8 SEC to say #5 ACC or wherever .. think its very possible SEC is coming into the bowl highly underrated .. never would have these spreads if conferences played each other .. my guess anyway .. 

SEC UNDERDOGS .. in order of dog to fav size ..  

MIZZOU / IOWA -14
OLE MISS / INDY -7
ARKANSAS / TCU -6
S.CAROLINA / UAB -5.5
TENN / W.VIRGINIA -4
AUBURN / NORTHWESTERN -3
MISS. STATE / TULSA -2.5

SEC FAVS .. 

KENTUCKY / NC STATE +2.5
FLORIDA / OKLA +2.5
TEX A&M / N.CAROLINA +6
GEORGIA / CINCY +6.5
BAMA / ND +19.5 

Notes on these SEC games .. 

Mizzou is the biggest SEC bowl game underdog and my records go back to 2009 ... Auburn was +11.5 to FSU in 2013 for the champ game .. and that line I recall being 8 or 9 opener .. 11.5 was closing line / last minute money came flooding in on JAMEIS and FSU .. lol that dude .. 2 TD opener .. I mean maybe Mizzou had a bad game but they getting steamrolled here?.. idk .. could just maybe play tough and win the game .. Anyway Mizzou struggled with Leach's Air Raid to close the season .. Iowa passing is 55% .. 6.4 y/att 9TD-4INT .. we'll see .. 

Ole miss think they do struggle with Indy .. not sure 7/8 points is the right price tho .. don't want to lay many points with Indy .. idk .. indy was a good team last year by the time their bowl came around and putzed around with a kinda okay Tennessee team who had no offense .. 

Arkansas .. wth they beat all those SEC teams or hang tough with a bunch .. gotta be off the wall excited to go to a bowl game great turnaround season.. 6 point dogs to TCU?... man idk .. 

Even S.Carolina .. i mean if they can play a little run D they can keep this one close with UAB me thinks .. UAB found another not bad WR but Johnson really throwing ducks and connecting somehow last game and ended up w 22 points .. 5.5 point favs so winning by a TD basically .. yeah idk .. 

W.VA just doesnt have an offense and they're sure fire 4 point winners vs Tenn?.. Mountaineers needed overtime to beat baylor by 3 .. if Eric Gray is playing I kinda like Tenn here .. guontonomo bay not playing QB might be a real positive here for all anyone knows .. 

HAHA Auburn an underdog to Northwestern lol .. Auburn didn't have THAT bad a season (relatively speaking), inexperienced team.. Bo Nix obvi wasn't as good as they said but he's not as bad as they're saying now either..  i think NU got the stones to take this one and no doubt they're showing up for some unfinished business.. Aub really needs to not play stupid against these guys .. but end of the day should be close game . could see Aub talent maybe eeking out a small win, NU same thing.. why lay points here?.. 

Miss State I mean I was hoping to get Tulsa at idk maybe +6?.. still .. don't think I can back leach here .. 2-4 ATS/SU at Wash state in bowl games, was a fav 4 times .. no thx .. 

Kentucky can just run their way to a win here I suspect .. if OL / RB's showing up then this should be the easiest D they've faced all year .. much easier than Ole Miss and they put up like 400 yds rushing in that one .. I like NC State but unless wolfpack but giving up 300+ rushing to VT and UNC .. 260 to GT in their last game .. Wildcats do something like that here .. 

Oklahoma defense got good finally .. watch out for this team next year .. I like UF -2.5 if the good WR's are back .. if not idk .. maybe Oklahoma but won't play that one .. just gunna play total over .. 

A&M -6 .. kinda like under 69 in this one .. funny feeling its not a 70+ point bonanza .. A&M's D is really stout prob doesn't get burned tooo too bad .. both offenses are kinda slow moving even if they can put up yards .. A&M gets a lead and you just run this ball and kill off the clock .. no need to chance it by having mond throw the ball alot here.

UGA / Cincy .. think its already over a TD .. i agree w that .. 

Bama .. i don't think laying 19 is the way to go here but man bama is just doing everything right on offense .. guessing they get 35 to 40 here .. ND should regroup and find a few points .. 

^^ Okay so on that note ....  if those spreads are correct then I'd have to say the SEC and ACC were close to equally matched this year on average throw non-bowl teams and they should line up more or less in the neighborhood .. these two conferences were like 300 miles apart LY and ACC had a terrible bowl season .. if you recall 2019 I think ALOT of folks were making the case that the American was all around better than the ACC was, some advanced metrics would agree ... I can certainly make the case that existing ACC teams did take a step up from LY and SEC conf maybe a little step back .. but can't say I've seen any real evidence of parity ... we can't say ND joined the conference so everyone else is better since nobody beat them except Clem.. Liberty beat Cuse and VT and very nearly beat NC State .. coulda shoulda .. ACC also beat eachother up pretty good top to bottom not much consistency .. 

Anyway .. think bookies leaning heavily on perception here ... cincy undefeated and top 5 team .... and so would have been BYU, maybe Boise .. all woulda been top 5 teams if they didn't play each other or Coastal .. coastal btw had no chance of top 5 stardom .. came too far outta nowhere .. but seem like the best of that bunch to me ... Just very little to suggest bookies have anything in their models that really understand the parity of the conferences that can justify where they are putting their spreads outside of who has more wins and maybe tack on a few rare non-con achievements .. seems like this is impacting the SEC more than anyone .. but MAC/PAC played 5 games .. 5-0 teams must be really good then!!!.. I'd expect extreme wackiness as these conferences all start playing each other . 

If I could be assured that UGA was as close to their full roster as they can be and don't all opt out like they've done more than anyone for two years.. I would be ALL over Georgia because their defense could own this game 

I might be insane to most with this opinion, but is it strange that I see value with many of these really bad SEC teams getting this many points? I mean it just all depends who is playing at this point. I think Mizzou and Ole Miss value is very good and the lines are reflecting upon what everyone saw last instead of the matchup in front of them in that game. 

Good write ups brotha, just be on lookout for one of my favorite teams to bet Liberty! Haha

Love bowl season, best of luck to you!

@RonBergundy

Good stuff yeah I had a great time with Liberty and Coastal this year .. Can't sit that one out and sad I gotta choose one but think Coastal just has some next level stuff .. I bagged it at -5 .. fingers xxx'd they don't have serious corona probs, I can't imagine the bowl people extend an invite and don't have a beat on whether or not the team will show up with a starting unit out or worse .. no way .. have to just bank on that because expected the line to jump to 7 by the time we find out what the rosters looking like .. Yeah win or lose I hope we get a great game from two teams that really injected some fun into this year .. good luck..