Using Phil Steele’s “Career Returning O-line Starts,” I compiled what we really need from it: Who has the advantage based on a given matchup. I charted all 46 games. For example, Wisconsin has 150 returning starts and Western Kentucky has just 18, so the Badgers are +132 starts. The team that has the starts advantage is listed first.
I absolutely love this stat for handicapping games the first couple of weeks of the season, because it gives me a good idea of who will control the line of scrimmage. There are some powerhouse teams that are immune from such stats, because they are so talented, they will dominate the line of scrimmage regardless. But for the most part, this stat proves itself year in, and year out. Let’s see how all the +40 or better teams fare versus the spread in week one. I bet they hit at least 70%.
I really use it more to eliminate games, or to confirm games that I already have an interest in. This year I’m going to bet one game soley off this stat, and that is Wisconsin -34. They’re going to smash WKU in the trenches. This one should get ugly.
My favorite game of the week checks in at #3 on the list with a +74. No way he Bulldogs don’t win this by at least two TDs.
These stats don’t include such things as injuries or suspensions, etc., so feel free to adjust as necessary.
Another special circumstance is that a few teams play twice. So are you going to credit NMSU an extra +5 for their matchup against Minnesota?
I will be posting plays in the next few days.
Hot Forum Topics
