Took Wisky -14.. Just can't bring myself to pull the trigger on the over. I contemplated, but I just saw nothing out of WK and Wiskys defense looked stifling. I hope we both hit. How about the badgers just outscore them 24-0 in the 2nd half and we all go to bed happy :)
I almost pulled the trigger on Army/Duke OVER 21.5 (2nd half), but was scared that Army would not hold up their end of the bargain, and not only did it go OVER in the 2nd half, it went OVER for the game.
Betting the UNDER for the 1st half saved our azzez tonight boys!
Everything I said about the Alabama game to fruition
Alabama - 24
Louisville/Alabama OVER 62.5
Alabama would score at least 50 points
That only Nick Saban could keep this game from going OVER
** he tried
That Alabama would not punt with Tua at QB
So you know what that means, right? Do the opposite of everything I do next week.
Nice day Jimmy. I don't know what happened in the LA Tech game. 1 minute left up by 10 on 4th and 2 they give up a 60 yard gain to set up a td. It was the super moose of the day. On top of that I had LA Tech team total over 30.5 and the idiot kicker missed a PAT and lost by the hook. That game hurt but still a good day. Great job bro.
Basically what happened is South Alabama, with an entirely new offensive line going against a team that returned almost their entire front 7, just ran the ball right down LT's throat in the 2nd half. USA couldn't throw the ball at all, so they were completely one-dimensional, yet LT couldn't even slow them down.
USA never punted in the second half. Every drive ended in a turnover or a score, and USA turned it over twice. When LT went up 30-20 with two minutes remaining, I thought that would force USA to throw the ball more but, nope, they just kept the ball on the ground. On 4th and 2, Evan Orth broke off a 59-yard run to the 1 yard line. They scored on the next play to kill the cover/push. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
It was very, very frustrating, because USA just ran it right down LT's throat in the 2nd half. LT just could not stop them. And this was an entirely new USA offensive line and new QB going against a team that returned almost their entire front 7. USA couldn't pass, so they were entirely one-dimensional, yet LT still couldn't stop them.
Jimmy - Congratulations on a fantastic week1 overall and your Bama predictions - you obviously have a great read on this team - excellent, impressive work. ??
The returning OL starts comparison is excellent information to keep track of and consider with other factors - LA Tech was absolutely the play for all the reasons you cited for example; but from week 1’s results the 40 returning OL start differential criteria as a betting strategy ATS at the beginning of the season doesn’t appear to produce an advantage as a stand alone strategy .... were it but that easy ??...
As I explained, I use the stat as a guide the first couple of weeks of the season, and discard it after that.
The limitation of the stat is that it only covers one side of the ball. For example, LT's offensive line can't be dominant if they are on the sidelines. Very few things shocked me in week 1, but USA's domination of LT's defense in the 2nd half was one of them. Here we have an almost entirely new offensive line and QB going against a veteran front 7, and the veterans got absolutely schooled - and that had nothing to do with LT's offensive line. Aside from the three interceptions, LT's offense moved the ball very well. They just had limited opportunities because their defense couldn't get off the field.
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