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NCAA wk 12

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
UConn went down the tubes last week
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by highoctane3:

UConn  really sucks eh.
 
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Posted: #53
Wazuuup My fellow Ontarian GL this week MEGALOCKS 

I also had a Bad weekend

Golden Bears & Hokies on may radar
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #54
Temple - pls contact our legal and human resource departments with your resume along with 18 references - none of which can be sheep farmers 

octane - love betting uconn because they have been good to us - just not so much this yr 


next pk

S Miss +9

mega line 6
sagarin 4.5

Some of the worst QB play ever recorded by MEGALOCKS interns is part of the wonder of UTSA football - such a scrappy D and they deserve better - but QB play has been baaaaad....and they have tried a bunch of them....Up this wk - A Robinson - 56% 1 td 3 int - 5 yds a completion - one of their other QBs out - another Q or D with head issue - so their offense which is 109th rushing and 112th passing is going to have trouble scoring and winning by DD even against  S Miss - Reading some local stuff it seems nobody happy down there and other than D playing their hearts out questionable leadership and offensive results - and no bowl game this yr - season has gone down the crapper since impressive first 2 games - look at their last 6 games - the only win was at home to FIU by 3....losses to new mexico at home - 34-CACK at home vs UTEP....decent losses at rice and la tech....but you get the idea.....Last 2 games in particular - 70 yds offense the entire game vs utep WTFWTF and onloy 257 last wk vs rice.....S Miss gets QB Mullens back - without him last 3 games blown out by LT Utep marshall - before he got hurt were playing well - lost to mtsu by 6 then beat NT on road by 10....Cant sugar coat it their D is wretched - but we love the QB - balanced offense - UTSA nothing to play for - proven ability to get spanked at home....Think we will pray and take the points.

mega

 
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Posted: #55
update

Arizona St -6.5
Tennessee -6.5
Virginia Tech +7
S Miss +9

GL guys 



Up next 

Navy Ga Southern on ALL REQUEST LINE

followed by Big 10

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Temple - pls contact our legal and human resource departments with your resume along with 18 references - none of which can be sheep farmers 

octane - love betting uconn because they have been good to us - just not so much this yr 


next pk

S Miss +9

mega line 6
sagarin 4.5

Some of the worst QB play ever recorded by MEGALOCKS interns is part of the wonder of UTSA football - such a scrappy D and they deserve better - but QB play has been baaaaad....and they have tried a bunch of them....Up this wk - A Robinson - 56% 1 td 3 int - 5 yds a completion - one of their other QBs out - another Q or D with head issue - so their offense which is 109th rushing and 112th passing is going to have trouble scoring and winning by DD even against  S Miss - Reading some local stuff it seems nobody happy down there and other than D playing their hearts out questionable leadership and offensive results - and no bowl game this yr - season has gone down the crapper since impressive first 2 games - look at their last 6 games - the only win was at home to FIU by 3....losses to new mexico at home - 34-CACK at home vs UTEP....decent losses at rice and la tech....but you get the idea.....Last 2 games in particular - 70 yds offense the entire game vs utep WTFWTF and onloy 257 last wk vs rice.....S Miss gets QB Mullens back - without him last 3 games blown out by LT Utep marshall - before he got hurt were playing well - lost to mtsu by 6 then beat NT on road by 10....Cant sugar coat it their D is wretched - but we love the QB - balanced offense - UTSA nothing to play for - proven ability to get spanked at home....Think we will pray and take the points.

mega


By the aforementioned statement I am confident you have already skimmed my resume and know that I will have a difficult time qualifying without using my goat & sheep farmer references….
And That's Just WRONG!
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

E Carolina 3 Cincy (68.5)
mega line pk
sagarin 2.5

Actually lean to the dog in this one - Both teams have been facing relatively weak and similar competition lately and cincy playing a lot better while EC may have peaked....Cincy has won 3 in a row vs creampuffs beating vegas by 50ish points and only gave up 3 17 14 in those contest D is playing much better....Nobody will like this pick because their YTD D stats are horrid but the 3 game losing streak was at ohio st (no chance) at miami (no chance) home to memphis (bad loss but not memphis is decent)....won every other game - Munchie has gotten some nice reps at QB with gunner out with injury - now he is back this wk but we know if munchie gets in he has confidence....running game has also been working despite injuries.....EC is 7-15 L22 ATS as road fav and if you think cincy should get no credit for beating crap teams - what about EC losing to crap teams and barely beating crap teams? L4G - did not cover vs SMU at home - beating USF by 11 no cover - won late vs uconn at home - no cover - lost outright at temple turned it over 5 times....so yes cincy has played nobody but please dont tell me EC is a well oiled machine....they are also #110 in turnovers and #124 in penalty yards....Both teams only 1 loss in conference.

summary
side - strong lean cincy - will likely release some kind of play on this game today or tomorrow just need to mull it over

total - no leanage




next pk

E CAROLINA TT under 35.5 (sports interaction)

In addition to the above analysis - think the TT under safer than Cincy +3.

Other than the 3 game losing streak including at ohio st and at miami - cincy has not give up 36.

EC last 3 games vs USF Uconn Temple - 28 31 10. They scored 52 on NC Central - 70 on UNC in sept - 45 vs SMU at home. On the road last 3 years - going over 36....

2014
0-4

2013
2-4

2012
1-5

may or may not matter - just have to pay to see them get 36 on the road on a thursday night game at cincy - and if they do - all the power to them - Cincy probably will not cover if EC gets 36+.

GL guys

mega
 
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Posted: #58
temple - always happy to have a guest pick  we need somebody to dominate in here 
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

temple - always happy to have a guest pick  we need somebody to dominate in here 

Gracias - 

 
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Posted: #60
Let's get after it this week bud. 
 
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Posted: #61
Mega. ,     What's  with Rice getting 3 TDs?  I love Marshall this year and have a crush on Rice.  Both have been good to me. If I can get another 1/2 pt. liking Rice. Not sure I need it.

Curious about Nev. @ Air Force giving pts.  Not sure that Nev. isn't better there.  Nevada much better in the SAG.  Maybe to close to play but Nevada very competitive.  What you got?

Small card this week.  Most spreads going against my 1st choice.

GL,    Doc
 
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Posted: #62
MEGA
 
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Posted: #63
thanks a lot guys  best of luck to you in all your plays

pecador - i have no take at all on air force game - I have the fair line at a pick em - would appreciate any insight you have - I kinda eliminated it from my mind since the line was so tight and i do not know much about nevada this yr - one of the few teams i have not seen play this yr. LOVE rice i think - probably gonna add that one to my card at 21. GL 
 
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Posted: #64
Navy 3 Ga South (63)
mega line 6
sagarin 2

Very interesting games - two very dynamic QBs and really hope this game is on TV for us - We had the game pegged at 36-30 so a bit of perceived value with navy - but sagarin disagrees maybe we have navy rated too high??

Navy has played a much tougher schedule - and the unthinkable is at stake - bowl eligibility - i know it sounds nuts - but they are 4-5 and with a game at S Alabama they are no pushover - if navy loses this one all of the sudden they are in a tough spot to make a BG....the point? this will not make them win - but at least they should have the right mindset as they pretty much always do - although like we said - HF ATS never a great play - think that only laying 3 maybe a different dynamic?.....Ga S ? One of our buddies from earlier in the yr - still a fantastic ATS machine this yr - but a little worried about the step up in class - last games played app st nm st idaho ga st troy tex st - maybe someone with local intel can explain how in the SAM HELL Ga S only got 9 first downs last wk vs tex st??? one of the most potent offenses in ncaa gets 9 Fd - tex st ok not great on D....Probably just one bad game - but not sure about this non-C game setup for them only catching 3......hmmmmm

summary
side - lean navy -3
total - no leanage maybe a tad low at 63 but not worth risk imo

 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66

Penn St 11 Temple (39)
mega line 10
sagarin 10

Line looks about right - check out the total tho - 39 in an NCAA football game  - We would lose whatever hair we have left playing that under even tho it is probably the right play - have to pass on it - Lean temple but their last 2 road games have been duds after a semi-epic run as road dogs ats....Penn St - what can we say - got the cash two wks in a row in their games - got the cash two wks in a row fading indiana - but we were lucky to get an early line with penn st and got a late FG to cover - having said that - indiana did nothing all game on offense - td was yet another HACKenberg mistake - just love that penn st D tho i know it is old school but we are still a sucker for watching D like that......Temple may not get 10+ and penn can surely get 21 so we have to take a pass.

summary
leanage - none

 
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Posted: #67
*** sorry lean temple +11 ***.......pass on a full unit play
 
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Posted: #68
next pk

Indiana TT under 24

When Rutgers plays at home against a team with a vanilla or average offense - they can usually hold them in check - Penn 13 Tulane 6 Michigan 24...LY UCF 6 Temple 20.....Rutgers off bye and tough stretch vs ohio st neb and wisc....A lot of injuries but should be able to grind one out here - with the team total at 24 - indiana essentially needs 27 to beat us - and while they too have had a tough recent stretch - mich st mich and penn st - going on road at rutgers not a walk in the park - their season is over - But the real issue is not that they have necessarily quit - but their QB situation just decimated with injuries - left with Diamont true freshman QB and only 1 WR with over 200Y let that sink in - and have a great RB in Coleman - but he can only do so much - Diamont? 46% in 3 G - 0 td passes and 2 int - and an absolutely astonishing - get ready - 2 yds per attempt ....5 is bad - 4 is hall of fame dung bad - 2 is just well ....bad.....Not all his fault of course - just hard to do much when so young and no developed weapons in passing game to MATRICULATE......Also lean Rutgers but think this way is the safer bet.

mega
 
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Posted: #69
Mega!..would u still play v tech +5 and Arizona st -9.5 ? or suggest buying it down? thanks...appreciate your input
 
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Posted: #70
BOL this week, Mega, thanks for the hard work you put in!
 
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Posted: #71
Lion  thanks buddy - just do some digging so it saves you guys some time and maybe you interpret the facts better than me ! GL

echun - i would not play az st at 9.5 ; might look at their team total or do a ML parlay with Tennessee. GL !
 
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Posted: #72
rest of the big 10 and hopefully SEC tonight 
 
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Posted: #73
Echun - yes would still play VT at any number 4.5 or higher - GL 


next pk 

Ohio St TT over 34 (sports interaction)

Ohio St a well oiled machine right now and have scored 34 in every game this yr - including mich st away 49 and maryland away 50+....other than early in yr vs VT and at penn st.....Minn D statistically pretty good #21 but have not played too many hot offenses - tcu early sept maybe the only one - and got gashed a couple games ago for 38 at home to purdue and 298 yds on the ground - think ohio st even with a let down gets to mid 30s - Minny has lost 7 straight to ohio st all by DD.

mega
 
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Posted: #74
Iowa 3.5 Illinois 57.5
mega line 5
sagarin 3

Not sure what to do with this game - Iowa was a screaming bet last wk - decided against it - and thankfully that was the case as minny destroyed iowa in a shocker if for no other reason than the sheer ease of it.....Teams pretty close on paper maybe iowa bit better but they have really #shitthebed a few times on the road not gonna lay points here - illinois tough to trust with that D but did pull off a late scoop and score win at home vs minny despite getting less than 300Y offense

summary
no leanage

 
 
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Posted: #75
GL Mega, hit em hard this week buddy 
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