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NCAA wk 12

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Posted: #76
Big ERN !!!!!! 



Next pk - Wisconsin / Nebraska under 57

write-up tomorrow am


 
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Posted: #77
 
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Posted: #78
Mac pays Homage to his fellow Ontarian MEAGALOCKS & wishes him all the best this weekend
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #79
Smoke 'em, ML!

 
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Posted: #80
[Quote: Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS] Big ERN !!!!!! 



Next pk - Wisconsin / Nebraska under 57

write-up tomorrow am


thanks a lot guys 

Wisconsin / Nebraska under 57

Will be very surprised if this game gets into the high 50s or above...Now statistically if you look at pts per game - obviously it feels over - Neb avg 40 and Wisc 37....But these two Ds are very good - and Wisc D is playing excellent football right now...They have won their last 3 games 123-23 and only given up 175 139 and 230 total yds in those games...Obviously Neb is a different animal - but not so much offensively - If Wisc slows down their run game - which the #1 overall D and brick wall run D usually does (2.9/carry <100Y per game...7 rush TD all yr) it is gonna be tough for Neb to score much as they do not MATRICULATE as well in the passing game if run game not as effective - As Wisc run game as we know on fire right now - but they do not wanna air it out to much against the solid Neb pass D - #2 in pass eff D - especially since they should be able to run the ball enough at home on Corn D - They give up almost a yd more / carry than Wisc....See a lot of long drives - and both teams should have trouble finding the end zone....Neb/Wisc matchup pretty well should be a fun one !! GL to all

mega



 
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Posted: #81
Sparty 12 Maryland (60)
mega line 10
sagarin 10

Not sure how Mich St gonna react after losing that huge one last wk - Yes they are well coached and have a lot of talent and pride - but M waiting at home for them off bye and feel good win vs penn st....Not crazy tho about the maryland D that has been smoked for 40 52 31 52 on different occasions....not sure even tho playing better they will have an answer for mich st.

summary
no leanage
 
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Posted: #82
so far

arizona st -6.5
tennessee -6.5
virginia tech +7
so miss +9
EC TT under 35.5
Indiana TT under 24
Ohio St TT over 34
Wisc / Neb under 57

up next 

SEC 
 
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Posted: #83
Florida 7 S Carolina (58)
mega line 6
sagarin 3.5

This line has been grinding and grinding higher during the week - recall a 3.5 out there on sunday - in any event - think it looks about right - Fla a tough fade right now with improved QB play great D and productive run game....Having said that SC can score but D has given up 40+ in 3 straight SEC contests....know we will get SC best effort - they must win at least 2/3 to get bowl eligible - S ala should be a win but need to beat florida or clemson on the road.....gonna take a pass on this one.

summary
no leanage
 
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Posted: #84
alabama 8.5 miss st (51)
mega line 6
sagarin 6.5

Maybe a bit of perceived value on the dog - but the matchup is gonna be a tough one for miss st - their pass D has a lot to be desired and Bama offense should be able to exploit that; Also bama D only given up 13 0 20 13 last 4 games and better overall results at home this yr....series history may mean squat but ala has won last 5 by 13 31 17 20 28.....Not much earth shattering in here you do not know about already - just a tough number once it gets past 7.....Think Miss St will find a way to score some points and lean to the over at 51.

summary
side - no leanage
total - lean over 51

 
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Posted: #85
Georgia 2.5 Auburn (68.5)
mega line 2
sagarin 2.5

The rematch of the immaculate deflection game from last yr...Ga gets Gurley back and coming off a humiliation of kentucky - auburn off devastating loss to AM not sure how they bounce back - but they are a tough tough team to beat...Aub given up 38 35 31 41 last 4 games but Ga is not a brick wall giving up 32 38 31 last 3 games and over 400 rushing to Florida 2 games ago - this just in - auburn can run the ball....Maybe a different scheme - but to us this game is gonna come down as it usually does to a couple big plays and turnovers and we can see both sides of the argument in this one - Total was hoping for a bit lower but still compelling bet at 68.5 which is scary just cannot do it....Georgia gets a lean here based on the situation.

summary
side - lean georgia
total - no leanage 

 
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Posted: #86
GL this week bud
 
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Posted: #87
Neb RB practiced first time with a knee brace last night after getting injured two weekends ago.  Idk how you stay in game shape by not practicing for 7+ days.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by doggs:

VT has too many injuries.  They just found out that the starting right tackle will be out for the rest of the season.  Now they are putting in a guy that switched from defense to offense and has barely played.  They have no running game which puts a lot of pressure on QB Brewer.  He is high on the list of throwing the most interceptions.  It helps that VT has had a couple of weeks to prepare.  But they have so many injuries and all these backups playing I just think that Duke's experience will be too much for them.  Personally I think Duke rolls them.  Best of luck.


I agree, can't do much with a bunk O Line on the road, I respect your picks and analysis Mega, but Duke covers -5.5 (got them early so a TD lead will cover for us both). Can't ride a horse that's limping...

BOL!
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

Big ERN !!!!!! 



Next pk - Wisconsin / Nebraska under 57

write-up tomorrow am


thanks a lot guys 

Wisconsin / Nebraska under 57

Will be very surprised if this game gets into the high 50s or above...Now statistically if you look at pts per game - obviously it feels over - Neb avg 40 and Wisc 37....But these two Ds are very good - and Wisc D is playing excellent football right now...They have won their last 3 games 123-23 and only given up 175 139 and 230 total yds in those games...Obviously Neb is a different animal - but not so much offensively - If Wisc slows down their run game - which the #1 overall D and brick wall run D usually does (2.9/carry <100Y per game...7 rush TD all yr) it is gonna be tough for Neb to score much as they do not MATRICULATE as well in the passing game if run game not as effective - As Wisc run game as we know on fire right now - but they do not wanna air it out to much against the solid Neb pass D - #2 in pass eff D - especially since they should be able to run the ball enough at home on Corn D - They give up almost a yd more / carry than Wisc....See a lot of long drives - and both teams should have trouble finding the end zone....Neb/Wisc matchup pretty well should be a fun one !! GL to all

mega



Wisconsin's defensive numbers are good because they haven't played any good offenses.
 
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Posted: #90

Mega - take any of the following for what you wish - I will not touch any part of the Nebraska/Wisconsin game - if I were, the under I believe is the play as you have noted. However, I would also note the following:  I believe as well that Wisconsin's 'd' is playing better lately, but also keep in mind that the offenses they have played in their last 5-6 games are all ranked 90 (or in that area) or worse, with a couple in the 110-115 range - there is also a lot of skepticism in Huskerland that Abdullah may not play, and if he does, he will not be 100% - if he is not 100%, that drastically changes his effectiveness.

Keep Nebraska on your radar for next week - if injuries don't occur this week, I believe they will roll Minnesota - they certainly will not overlook the Gophers after what happened at their place last year.  Always love your insight - good luck with all of your plays.  Go Huskers!!!

 
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Posted: #91
GL this week MEGA!! im in love with bama this week.  those playoff committees put some motivation into  them i think. 
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by tomMiEe:

GL this week MEGA!! im in love with bama this week.  those playoff committees put some motivation into  them i think. 


the playoff committee will be rockin'.  no doubt about it.


 
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Posted: #93
thanks a lot everyone  appreciate the comments and always like to hear the opposite side of my picks - debate always good!

blacklist - thx for the husker intel 

russ - tough to fade duke no doubt about it; let's see how they do laying a TD instead of being a dog or short fav...For sure nervous about that one - GL buddy

skip 

badger  looking forward to the game - i get that wisconsin D has played some bad offenses; 57 is a high total imo....GL man !! enjoy the game you must be pumped !
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Wisconsin's defensive numbers are good because they haven't played any good offenses.

That might be true. But the point is - will the game go over 57? If it was 48 or 49 or 51 we pass. Thinking about the number here. Context. Both teams Ds should not have trouble with the opposing O. Just do not see either team getting to 30 - maybe one of them but not both. Not worried about is Wisconsin D better than Bama or Louisville or Clemson or...

GL this wk buddy  No doubt it could fly over. Just taking our chances !
 
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Posted: #95
Temples defense hasn't looked too shabby the past couple weeks and penn state hasn't been exactly lighting up the scoreboard....you guys think 11 is too steep or is psu just simply bigger an better? Thoughts appreciated heading to the game so ill need to wager
 
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Posted: #96
hen7  have fun at the game

Boy such a tough game the line looks about perfect to us - 39 total - we cannot go under that in an ncaa game - against our religion - but having said that - seems like the right way to go gun to the head....11 points is a lot for penn st to lay - but their D is fantastic imo and blah blah who have they played? Gun to the head - penn st and under but i am sure guys who have local intel can give you a better read - we are passing this one - GL !
 
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Posted: #97
Tex AM 4 Mizz (57)
mega line 6
sagarin 6

Absolutely no clue what to do with this one - How about giving Mizz some credit? Seem to do it with mirrors and never seem to be THE team but could have a trip to the title game again - and even if they get smoked - pretty impressive if you ask us if they get that done....AM ? what a game last wk totally wrong on how they would play.....Cannot trust their D - and cannot trust Mizz inconsistency on offense.....just a tough one to call for us.

no leanage 
 
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Posted: #98

Correction-----

 

YOU lean Mizzou

 
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Posted: #99
Arkansas 1 LSU (47.5)
mega line lsu 1
sagarin ark 1

Another tough one for us - going to leave it to the SEC guys on here to sort out - Hard to back LSU after that gut wrenching loss to Bama - get a lot of credit in our books....but they are only human - Now have to play a team that will kick you in the nutsack and beat on you for 4Q - problem is - we have lost track of their SEC losing streaks but it has been a long long time since a SU win in conference.....Just feels like a tossup to us but can see both sides of it.

no leanage


Summary of write-ups in order from start of thread for those who want to sift through it all

EARLY TASTERS

TUESDAY-FRIDAY GAMES

BIG 10

SEC


up next ACC 


thanks everyone as always for the comments and local intel 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Correction-----

 

YOU lean Mizzou



ALL they do is WIN 


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