Such a tough game to get a read on - GT firing on all cylinders won 3 straight scoring almost 50/game - and have won the last 4 home to clemson.....Clemson D stupid good right now - last 5 games total yards given up not a misprint - 154 264 263 170 119 - now i know this is a step up in class but that is sick - and they get stud QB back....Just too much uncertainty here any game with GT always tough for us
no leanage
0
Clemson 2.5 GT (59.5)
mega line pk
sagarin 2.5
Such a tough game to get a read on - GT firing on all cylinders won 3 straight scoring almost 50/game - and have won the last 4 home to clemson.....Clemson D stupid good right now - last 5 games total yards given up not a misprint - 154 264 263 170 119 - now i know this is a step up in class but that is sick - and they get stud QB back....Just too much uncertainty here any game with GT always tough for us
Another one that really has us perplexed - Pitt has given up over 100 pts last 2 games - off a bye - but now get a very potent offense - UNC struggled a bit at miami - but prior to that really started clicking....both teams are 4-5 and need 2 wins to get to a bowl game - now Pitt still has a road trip to miami - so not that it means they will win - but it is probably a must win so we know will get a max effort - ran for well over 300 yds vs duke....Lean to the over here total a bit high for our liking - but last 4 unc totals 93 91 55 67 and pitt playing high scoring games lately - MEGALOCKS KEY AFFILIATES have the over circled- we lean that way just rarely take totals this high
summary
side - no leanage
total - lean over 67.5
0
UNC 2.5 Pitt (67.5)
mega line 3
sagarin 1.5
Another one that really has us perplexed - Pitt has given up over 100 pts last 2 games - off a bye - but now get a very potent offense - UNC struggled a bit at miami - but prior to that really started clicking....both teams are 4-5 and need 2 wins to get to a bowl game - now Pitt still has a road trip to miami - so not that it means they will win - but it is probably a must win so we know will get a max effort - ran for well over 300 yds vs duke....Lean to the over here total a bit high for our liking - but last 4 unc totals 93 91 55 67 and pitt playing high scoring games lately - MEGALOCKS KEY AFFILIATES have the over circled- we lean that way just rarely take totals this high
Really paying up here if you like NC St - 17 by almost any measure is too high - but that does not mean they won't cover - just a hefty premium....NC St needs one more win to get bowl elig and this one their best shot - since the fla st game have been in horrid form - against decent competition tho - and wake - well they have only managed 10 3 7 17 20 last 5 games and only 119Y offense WTF in their cover vs clemson......Just do not see a high prob play here
no leanage
0
NC St 17 Wake (46.5)
mega line 11
sagarin 12
Really paying up here if you like NC St - 17 by almost any measure is too high - but that does not mean they won't cover - just a hefty premium....NC St needs one more win to get bowl elig and this one their best shot - since the fla st game have been in horrid form - against decent competition tho - and wake - well they have only managed 10 3 7 17 20 last 5 games and only 119Y offense WTF in their cover vs clemson......Just do not see a high prob play here
Lots of good posts in here on this one. Our Canes will have their hands full this wk. Been a while since I have thought they have a chance to win a big game....or even play in a big game ....Undefeated at home and playing very well - quick MEGALOCKS FACTOID - who are the only teams ranked in the top 10 in yds per play offense and yds per play defense......??? Marshall and MIAMI....Miami has a shot - but think the line has already reflects the fact that these 2 teams are not that far apart and 2.5 is not too much to ask for Fla St - all world QB - yes throw some int this yr - but he is a winner - a robot FG kicker - probable in-game HC edge - and recent experience in big games....Miami gonna be pumped just not sure it will be enough - tossup. Was hoping for a total closer to 58/59.
leanage
none (sadly) at this price; it is all about context - or the price - would take fla st pk and miami +3.5 and to us line looks just about right.
GL guys !
Summary of write-ups so far - IN ORDER
EARLY TASTERS
TUESDAY-FRIDAY GAMES
BIG 10
SEC
ACC
UP NEXT - BIG 12 / PAC 12
0
Fla St 2.5 Miami (61.5)
mega line 4.5
sagarin 2.5
Lots of good posts in here on this one. Our Canes will have their hands full this wk. Been a while since I have thought they have a chance to win a big game....or even play in a big game ....Undefeated at home and playing very well - quick MEGALOCKS FACTOID - who are the only teams ranked in the top 10 in yds per play offense and yds per play defense......??? Marshall and MIAMI....Miami has a shot - but think the line has already reflects the fact that these 2 teams are not that far apart and 2.5 is not too much to ask for Fla St - all world QB - yes throw some int this yr - but he is a winner - a robot FG kicker - probable in-game HC edge - and recent experience in big games....Miami gonna be pumped just not sure it will be enough - tossup. Was hoping for a total closer to 58/59.
leanage
none (sadly) at this price; it is all about context - or the price - would take fla st pk and miami +3.5 and to us line looks just about right.
No play on this game; Have no idea how the QB situation is gonna play out for Oklahoma; No idea how Cody Thomas will do - Sooner guys may have an idea; Hard to back Tex Tech - any team that can give up 40 pts on a regular basis and 80 when feeling charitable is to be avoided.....Seems like a lot of points tho? Too much uncertainty
no leanage
next pick
"WHAT IN THE SAM HILL IS THIS" - PLAY OF THE DECADE
Kansas TT over 15.5
When you last saw MEGALOCKS given out a Kansas pick they got azzwhipped by Baylor - now catching 37 we would still do it again - fumbles and all kinds of bonehead mistakes - but still did not lose the cover by much giving up 60
Well this line with TCU is inflated no doubt - We have it at 21 - Sagarin at 24.5.....Think that Kansas TT over, game over, and Kansas +28 are all good plays - but trying to pick the safest one - best risk/reward scenario - going with the TT over; If they cannot get 16 do not think they are covering 28.
Before you say Kansas blows - and they may - The issue is as always - will they cover 28 - or in this case - can they score 16 ?
Since the porn star Michael Cummings took over - and the head coach change - at Baylor game aside - they have been playing decent football....since MC took over - 20 21 14 34 points - 288 235 288 278 yds passing - 0 int last 2 games....At home this yr before change lost to texas by 23 - since that time - only lost to okie st by 7 at home - beat iowa st handily at home...So we are playing the team is a different animal now card - and think they can score 16 on the TCU D which granted playing against good competition - has given up a lot of points....#1 in turnover margin sets up a lot of points for them- and statistically they are a ton better at home....Think Kansas finds a way to get to 16 in this one....We are well aware TCU "needs" to win impressively to keep the playoff hopes alive - and that little game at Texas - If they do go off for 45+ which is possible - still think Jayhawks find a way to score.
GL
mega
0
Oklahoma 12 Texas Tech
No play on this game; Have no idea how the QB situation is gonna play out for Oklahoma; No idea how Cody Thomas will do - Sooner guys may have an idea; Hard to back Tex Tech - any team that can give up 40 pts on a regular basis and 80 when feeling charitable is to be avoided.....Seems like a lot of points tho? Too much uncertainty
no leanage
next pick
"WHAT IN THE SAM HILL IS THIS" - PLAY OF THE DECADE
Kansas TT over 15.5
When you last saw MEGALOCKS given out a Kansas pick they got azzwhipped by Baylor - now catching 37 we would still do it again - fumbles and all kinds of bonehead mistakes - but still did not lose the cover by much giving up 60
Well this line with TCU is inflated no doubt - We have it at 21 - Sagarin at 24.5.....Think that Kansas TT over, game over, and Kansas +28 are all good plays - but trying to pick the safest one - best risk/reward scenario - going with the TT over; If they cannot get 16 do not think they are covering 28.
Before you say Kansas blows - and they may - The issue is as always - will they cover 28 - or in this case - can they score 16 ?
Since the porn star Michael Cummings took over - and the head coach change - at Baylor game aside - they have been playing decent football....since MC took over - 20 21 14 34 points - 288 235 288 278 yds passing - 0 int last 2 games....At home this yr before change lost to texas by 23 - since that time - only lost to okie st by 7 at home - beat iowa st handily at home...So we are playing the team is a different animal now card - and think they can score 16 on the TCU D which granted playing against good competition - has given up a lot of points....#1 in turnover margin sets up a lot of points for them- and statistically they are a ton better at home....Think Kansas finds a way to get to 16 in this one....We are well aware TCU "needs" to win impressively to keep the playoff hopes alive - and that little game at Texas - If they do go off for 45+ which is possible - still think Jayhawks find a way to score.
The rematch of the immaculate deflection game from last yr...Ga gets Gurley back and coming off a humiliation of kentucky - auburn off devastating loss to AM not sure how they bounce back - but they are a tough tough team to beat...Aub given up 38 35 31 41 last 4 games but Ga is not a brick wall giving up 32 38 31 last 3 games and over 400 rushing to Florida 2 games ago - this just in - auburn can run the ball....Maybe a different scheme - but to us this game is gonna come down as it usually does to a couple big plays and turnovers and we can see both sides of the argument in this one - Total was hoping for a bit lower but still compelling bet at 68.5 which is scary just cannot do it....Georgia gets a lean here based on the situation.
summary
side - lean georgia
total - no leanage
ADDING
Georgia -2.5
Situation just too spicy. Auburn gods forgive us. You are such a fun team to watch and cheer for.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Georgia 2.5 Auburn (68.5)
mega line 2
sagarin 2.5
The rematch of the immaculate deflection game from last yr...Ga gets Gurley back and coming off a humiliation of kentucky - auburn off devastating loss to AM not sure how they bounce back - but they are a tough tough team to beat...Aub given up 38 35 31 41 last 4 games but Ga is not a brick wall giving up 32 38 31 last 3 games and over 400 rushing to Florida 2 games ago - this just in - auburn can run the ball....Maybe a different scheme - but to us this game is gonna come down as it usually does to a couple big plays and turnovers and we can see both sides of the argument in this one - Total was hoping for a bit lower but still compelling bet at 68.5 which is scary just cannot do it....Georgia gets a lean here based on the situation.
summary
side - lean georgia
total - no leanage
ADDING
Georgia -2.5
Situation just too spicy. Auburn gods forgive us. You are such a fun team to watch and cheer for.
Thanks to everyone once again for all the support, comments and banter during the week.....Great to hear agreement but also very important to hear those that disagree - VT and Wisc over picks among others were met with ??? but that is OK and what makes this so much fun and so challenging from week to week Best of luck to all this wk and enjoy the games tomorrow
last add for the week
PARALYSIS BY ANALYSIS GAME OF THE HALF-CENTURY
RICE first half +13.5
As always - never looking to talk anyone into anything - just presenting results of our research in an informative and often kooky format
We commented in another thread somewhere that while it is true that Rice has played nobody - neither has Marshall - and in fact - these 2 teams have played a lot of similar turds and in at least one case the results were similar....Rice can at least say they played at ND and at T AM before they imploded before rising from the dead
So we repeat - we are not saying marshall is not amazing - we know the QB is sick - we know the D is stiff - but the issue is can rice stay within 2 td at half ?
take consideration of these points in aggregate - each one could be debated for hrs
1. marshall opp record not incl FCS team they played rhode island reds - 29-51...win %36%....Rice sched soft too - but as noted above it is similar and sagarin has it a bit tougher
2. Rice D very good for a c usa team: won 6 straight - given up 23 14 21 21 17 7 in those games
3. rice offense balanced solid mobile qb - 15 td 4 int - over 8 yds/attempt; two good RB; balanced weapons in pass game
4. last 3 yrs rice vs marshall - yes different teams but - last yr at rice - Rice wins 41-24 ...2YA....marshall by 3...3YA mashall by 4
5. finally
marshall last 4 games
first half combined score to 4 turds.....84-55
second half .......108-6
worried that if we take rice full game - when M gets rolling - and the D is excellent - bad bad things can happen
GL all !!! mega
0
Thanks to everyone once again for all the support, comments and banter during the week.....Great to hear agreement but also very important to hear those that disagree - VT and Wisc over picks among others were met with ??? but that is OK and what makes this so much fun and so challenging from week to week Best of luck to all this wk and enjoy the games tomorrow
last add for the week
PARALYSIS BY ANALYSIS GAME OF THE HALF-CENTURY
RICE first half +13.5
As always - never looking to talk anyone into anything - just presenting results of our research in an informative and often kooky format
We commented in another thread somewhere that while it is true that Rice has played nobody - neither has Marshall - and in fact - these 2 teams have played a lot of similar turds and in at least one case the results were similar....Rice can at least say they played at ND and at T AM before they imploded before rising from the dead
So we repeat - we are not saying marshall is not amazing - we know the QB is sick - we know the D is stiff - but the issue is can rice stay within 2 td at half ?
take consideration of these points in aggregate - each one could be debated for hrs
1. marshall opp record not incl FCS team they played rhode island reds - 29-51...win %36%....Rice sched soft too - but as noted above it is similar and sagarin has it a bit tougher
2. Rice D very good for a c usa team: won 6 straight - given up 23 14 21 21 17 7 in those games
3. rice offense balanced solid mobile qb - 15 td 4 int - over 8 yds/attempt; two good RB; balanced weapons in pass game
4. last 3 yrs rice vs marshall - yes different teams but - last yr at rice - Rice wins 41-24 ...2YA....marshall by 3...3YA mashall by 4
5. finally
marshall last 4 games
first half combined score to 4 turds.....84-55
second half .......108-6
worried that if we take rice full game - when M gets rolling - and the D is excellent - bad bad things can happen
Hey mega am i nuts for taking under 39 temple- psu? Temple has scored 10 13 14 20 L4 and psu has scored more than 24 twice all year and 1 of those was 26 1st game of yr. I mean they mustered just 13 vs the IU swiss cheese D. Plus both teams r top 10 scoring defenses.
0
Hey mega am i nuts for taking under 39 temple- psu? Temple has scored 10 13 14 20 L4 and psu has scored more than 24 twice all year and 1 of those was 26 1st game of yr. I mean they mustered just 13 vs the IU swiss cheese D. Plus both teams r top 10 scoring defenses.
Hey mega am i nuts for taking under 39 temple- psu? Temple has scored 10 13 14 20 L4 and psu has scored more than 24 twice all year and 1 of those was 26 1st game of yr. I mean they mustered just 13 vs the IU swiss cheese D. Plus both teams r top 10 scoring defenses.
hey buddy - my numbers show a 60%+ shot of this going under AND megalocks AFFILIATES both have the game under......BUT we never take an ncaa game under 42 and rarely under 45 i know it makes no sense and those under CAN and ARE won but we suck at them proven over time so avoid - GL !
0
Quote Originally Posted by Crossroader:
Hey mega am i nuts for taking under 39 temple- psu? Temple has scored 10 13 14 20 L4 and psu has scored more than 24 twice all year and 1 of those was 26 1st game of yr. I mean they mustered just 13 vs the IU swiss cheese D. Plus both teams r top 10 scoring defenses.
hey buddy - my numbers show a 60%+ shot of this going under AND megalocks AFFILIATES both have the game under......BUT we never take an ncaa game under 42 and rarely under 45 i know it makes no sense and those under CAN and ARE won but we suck at them proven over time so avoid - GL !
Dont post much, but follow the threads, just wanted to say much respect and thanks for all the effort and time you put into giving the insight you give every week. Too many dudes come into these threads, hating when most of us are just tryig to figure out an angle to make some money. So I appreciate the insight you offer to help figure out angles and things I might not have seen, GL this week
0
Dont post much, but follow the threads, just wanted to say much respect and thanks for all the effort and time you put into giving the insight you give every week. Too many dudes come into these threads, hating when most of us are just tryig to figure out an angle to make some money. So I appreciate the insight you offer to help figure out angles and things I might not have seen, GL this week
Feel free to bet on Oklahoma. I'm a huge fan and follow this team closely. I had loads of money on Baylor last week and never ever thought we had a chance. Having said that we can and should line up and run all over Tech and this team always dominates inferior opponents but craps the bed against equal or better talent.
0
Feel free to bet on Oklahoma. I'm a huge fan and follow this team closely. I had loads of money on Baylor last week and never ever thought we had a chance. Having said that we can and should line up and run all over Tech and this team always dominates inferior opponents but craps the bed against equal or better talent.
Dont post much, but follow the threads, just wanted to say much respect and thanks for all the effort and time you put into giving the insight you give every week. Too many dudes come into these threads, hating when most of us are just tryig to figure out an angle to make some money. So I appreciate the insight you offer to help figure out angles and things I might not have seen, GL this week
thanks a lot for the post Exactly why we do it - just trying to give guys some info and opinions where warranted. By definition - us as gamblers will usually want to go with our own gut feel or analysis anyway - so it makes sense that some agree with our picks and some do not. GL this wk !
0
Quote Originally Posted by rmp28:
Dont post much, but follow the threads, just wanted to say much respect and thanks for all the effort and time you put into giving the insight you give every week. Too many dudes come into these threads, hating when most of us are just tryig to figure out an angle to make some money. So I appreciate the insight you offer to help figure out angles and things I might not have seen, GL this week
thanks a lot for the post Exactly why we do it - just trying to give guys some info and opinions where warranted. By definition - us as gamblers will usually want to go with our own gut feel or analysis anyway - so it makes sense that some agree with our picks and some do not. GL this wk !
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
....Undefeated at home and playing very well - quick MEGALOCKS FACTOID - who are the only teams ranked in the top 10 in yds per play offense and yds per play defense......??? Marshall and MIAMI....Miami has a shot - but think the line has already reflects the fact that these 2 teams are not that far apart and 2.5 is not too much to ask for Fla St - all world QB - yes throw some int this yr - but he is a winner - a robot FG kicker - probable in-game HC edge - and recent experience in big games....Miami gonna be pumped just not sure it will be enough - tossup. Was hoping for a total closer to 58/59.
) at this price; it is all about context - or the price - would take fla st pk and miami +3.5 and to us line looks just about right.
Best of luck to all this wk and enjoy the games tomorrow 
Hot Forum Topics
