NCAA wk 5

Funny. We do not vacation far from Cape Fear

We absolutely love watching the service academies too - Always give you a great effort. As far as the weather goes - our resident weather expert John Cocktoastin prefers to wait until later in the week before giving us the good weather intel but appreciate your update What we normally do with potential bad weather is - I know you guys will hate this - but try to avoid it until we see how bad it really is - that may be a live look in - a pic/video on twitter - or we make an in game play - we almost HAVE to see the intensity of the rain and the WIND is key. Now not so much obviously for AF/Navy - but ya know what I mean? Agree 100% over 51 looks tasty but if there are sheets of rain - no SURPRISE TDs on passes by Navy or Air Force likely - and more fumbles potentially - FGs are harder - just do not want to be part of a hot mess of a brutal storm and a 6-3 final score. stay posted GL !

ALL REQUEST HOTLINE

UCLA 13.5 Arizona St (60)

Megalocks line 14

Sagarin 19

Not going to be able to play the DD fav in this one; At least according to our numbers - line looks about right; What surprised us about looking into the UCLA boxscore was not that Az QB got hurt - we knew that - but their run D was gashed for well over 300Y which was preceded by a game in which they were outgained by BYU and held on to win by 1...which is turn was preceded by two wins over the un-coached and crappy Cavs and UNLV....So we still have UCLA rated highly - but do we REALLY think they are that good to be laying 2 TD in this one? They did put up 60+ LY vs Az St and creamed them while being OUTGAINED a truly bizarre outcome score vs yards but we digress....Point is - QB is still young...D has some questions esp without Jack....Az St season is not over just one conference loss - Last wk USC got 28 points off turnovers in their beatdown of Az St but they only outgained Az St by 1 yard - turnovers were killer - and Az still had nice offensive balance....After going +35 the last 3 yrs under Graham their good fortune has turned sour combined with questionable play calling and a lack of depth at WR and poor pass protection.

Interesting note. Our Pac 12 research team found a tidbit: 2013 - wk 3 Az St got spanked by Stanford - came back to 8 of next 9 and make the p12 title game; Last yr - smoked by UCLA in the weird game we noted above - won 6 of next 7 en route to a 10 win season.

Summary. Lean to Arizona St +14 or better; OR Arizona St TT over no higher than 24....you should be able to get 23.5 but if you wait too long the total will probably go up and hence the team totals too.

Sorry to our UCLA friend who requested this Enjoy vegas and the game >GL mega

Michigan 16 Maryland (43)

Megalocks line 11

Sagarin 18

As we said last week....Maryland does have an identity. It is called Unpredictable and Often Bad......Maryland one of the teams we also have a tough time with - last wk was pretty predictable W Va is very good...But overall this seems like yet another season of mediocrity and a probable bowl loss to some mid-range MAC team....Their punt returner is a freak - very exciting - but the QB situation is suspect - Rowe threw 4 int last wk - and their run D is ranked last in the big 10 despite playing S Flo and Richmond....Not great when playing Michigan - so while we think the spread is inflated quite a bit - no way can that D be trusted - similar to UMass/ND - line was high according to our numbers but at some point the bad defense will stick it in your HOO HOO.....Michigan spreads may continue to present opportunity to play against - their D has been lights out - but RB Smith while making highlight reels is still only avg 3.9/rush and QB still has more int than TD so while we like Michigan quite a bit lets just calm down

Summary - no leanage

mega

Flu bug could change this game in a big way. Just saying...

Mega, thanks for the write up on the ucla game! no worries about the pick, I was also leaning same side! ucla best three players on defense out for season. Really like asu plus 14, I land at 230 pm pst, game starts at 430pm, hoping ucla will pick up steam and get to 15-17 range and then I will hammer them! like I always say alma mater may be blue and gold, but my favorite teams are always ones that make the $$$$$$. Btw the way, will prob be at the roulette tables, can't watch the asu ucla game, wife went to asu, usually causes come type of household distress during those games!  good luck brother ill be keeping up with the post till takoff!

Awolf -  agree but think you meant florida game GL

Lebreton - yes I think Bama being an underdog for the first time in over 70 games provides a small bit of extra focus and an angle for the coaches to use for motivation....Players still have to do it on the field GL buddy !

Joe - Just so hard to say about the weather until closer to game day but more importantly for us - like we mentioned earlier - really have to see how bad it is on the field ...rain/WIND to make an accurate assessment - Generally speaking - I think it is especially true that if you see that a line/total has dropped a lot due to weather - you might be best off not chasing in case you really end up with a bad number....just a general comment - not for the Indiana game....GL this wk man

JayUCLA - cool bro. Have fun....don't go ballistic on the Az St game unless you are really convinced it is a good one - FWIW - we have no cash on the game yet and probably wont unless like you said the line really steams upwards.

Ohio St 21 Indiana (67)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 17

Will not go into too much detail - there is already an excellent write-up in the forum that dwarfs anything we could do on this one - job WELL done win or lose always great to see guys posting up detailed thoughts makes the forum a great resource.

We do lean to the dog in this one - but just not sure about 1) the competition Indiana has faced and the rise in class that cannot be simulated in practice 2) The discrepancy between the Indiana defense and ohio st defense is HUGE....Now they are not on the field at the same time obviously but when we look to play big underdogs do not want the team with the relatively crappy D.

Indiana should be able to do some things on offense - 42-27 game last yr as well - but this Ohio St D we feel is very underrated somehow and all people talk about is the struggle on offense but their stop unit is pretty good notwithstanding maybe some issues in the DL up the middle as the poster noted above pointed out.

Weather? So hard to say on Wednesday. Left a bunch of thoughts on weather in general in the thread so we will leave that for now until we have something concrete to say.

Summary - Lean Indiana at +21 or higher. No lean on total.

mega

Quote Originally Posted by DAVIDN:

Good stuff! Respect brother. 

GL this wk

ADDING

Tennessee / Arkansas under 56

(write-up in a bit)

Nope I meant the MSU/A&M game.

Tennessee / Arkansas under 56

Ok. Here are some thoughts on the total in addition to the game write-up....Repeat - Tenn has nobody with more than 100Y receiving which is incredible and they prefer to run - Ark run D very good their pass D is what is suspect - On the other hand - Ark showed us they are getting back to Hog ball good balance but really ran well and controlled time of possession should have won that game - or at least could have....Ark down to one good receiver and one good tight end.....Any weather impacts will mean even more running but not banking on that....Tenn games so far...BG an obvious over....W Carolina - FCS team - Oklahoma was 55 in 2 OT...17-3 late - Florida was a stone cold under until late - and scoring helped by a long run - trick plays - and a fumble...still only hit 55....Finally - Ark D - not the same as LY but not that bad either ended last yr giving up 17 0 0 21 7....this yr gave up 13 16....then in games vs high powered offenses the totals were still just 59 T Tech ! and 49 against AM...Think this total is a bit rich......Our resident math expert John Cocktoastin informed us that two TD every quarter is still push at 56.

GL mega

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Tennesee 6 Arkansas (56)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 10

Where to start with this one?  We are not going to open the #gatesofhell on this one in an effort to keep things on topic - but we thought we were watching an NFL game with the mind boggling decision making / Let the other team come back for ratings sake...How you are up 12 in 4th Q and do not go for 2 to make it 28-14 is beyond me....Trying to run out the clock with turtling into the ground play calling with 3 minutes left is beyond us....Yes the Florida late TD was a bit surprising - but was it really? You give a team enough chances and Florida was hot - anything can happen....Very fun game really enjoyed the intensity now how will Tennessee respond after than Florida game?....Well it is a mini sandwich game with Georgia on deck...Their running game has been impressive Dobbs/Hurd just fun to watch and pretty much unstoppable....Still have not been able to MATRICULATE in the passing game - MEGALOCKS fun TIDBIT - nobody on the team has 100Y receiving after 4 games has to be a non-service-academy first this late in the season...Their pass D was a bit weak late vs Sooners and vs Florida Grier went nuts in the 4Q hard to fathom but it happened showed a lot of guts......Arkansas played almost a perfect game in our view - penalties just killed them - but we loved the game plan - played ball control - 232 rush 225 pass and made T AM one dimensional....Sadly they could not close the deal AGAIN late making them 0-11 last SEC road/neutral games and off a heartbreaker......SO ????

Arkansas has to give it another huge effort - they still have road games at bama at LSU at ole miss they are 1-3 now you do the math if they lose this game. Hard to see a bowl game in their future which is a shame should that happen.

Summary. No lean on side. Hard to know how either team will react off last wk and both teams would be happy to win by 1 do not really want to be laying 6 pts. Still looking at total.

Plays

NIU -2.5 (STEAM on C Michigan hopefully a head fake money coming in on NIU now - this is so intense)

Tennessee / Arkansas under 56

Waiting On

Alabama (want +3)

Table of contents - Write-Ups. To add to your viewing pleasure

NIU / C Michigan

Thursday / Friday games

SEC games

UCLA / Arizona St

Big 10 (in progress)

Wisconsin 6 Iowa (45)

Megalocks line - 8

Sagarin -9

Thankfully no flu related issues or scurvy...or bowel movement issues that we all need to know about so badly....

Wisconsin has destroyed 3 straight creampuffs with two shutouts in the last 2 games which is pretty good no matter who you are playing....And it seems as tho once again - the stable of running backs is pretty amazing so we are not concerned with the Clement injury.....On the other side - Iowa seems to have the balance they have lacked the last few yrs - Beathard doing a nice job at QB but what is a bit concerning was the 183 rushing yards they gave up to North Texas last wk.....Iowa has won 3L4 SU at Wisc.

Summary - no lean on side. If playing W - demand 6 or less - if Iowa you want 7. We actually like the over a bit - and lean that way - going to wait closer to Sat to see about weather.

mega

 agree - another reason why we like under  instead of a side

Northwestern 4 Minnesota (40)

Megalocks line 6

Sagarin 14   (we know season is young - as you know - just like to show another frame of reference)

Northwestern D still doing an excellent job of not allowing TDs - and their wins over Stanford and Duke are looking pretty good....They did put up 546Y last wk vs Ball St the MEGALOCKS 985349257 star crack pipe special winner that had the internet screaming our names in ecstasy....Most of that work done in the 2nd half and QB had his best game of the season....Minnesota is so scrappy and while they have played an easier schedule and won 3 games by 3 points - they play solid D - and they also had a better offensive game last wk vs a decent ohio team.....What worries us about this game and the total ?? Northwestern suffered a rash of injuries last wk on both sides of the ball but their LT Mogus may be out this wk and that is on top of an already thin OL so we are not thrilled about that - Minnesota shows a lot of injuries in the defensive backfield - again we look for clusters of injuries and we just need to monitor the situation over the next few days.....While the total may scream under - we are gonna stay clear given the improvement both offenses showed last wk and the total at 39.5/40 is below our comfort zone - if anything might take a shot at a TT under.

Summary - no leanage for now.

mega

 Dodgy

I agree do not expect a +3 - but you just never know - To answer your question - think we will still take +1.5....If it gets steamed down to pk probably still but just wanna sit tight - GL !!