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Spooky Express Bowling for Dollars 2015/2016

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ITS ALMOST THAT TIME!!!!!!
BOWLING FOR DOLLARS FOR 2015/2016!

SPOOKY EXPRESS AND BOWL SEASON



Many of you know I started posting my bowl game selections almost 16 years ago and that is how it all began at the forums. Never have had a losing bowl season since 1977 and not about to start now. Record speaks for itself.
We’ve had some unbelievable outstanding seasons and a few average years but always have showed a profit. This is the only time I truly crunch numbers and play more with the numbers than my head.

Will start posting some opinions in the next few weeks but wanted to get started on all the threads since there is so much work involved. I am just going to make 1 thread for the analysis, write ups, thoughts for each of the games that go along with the rankings and another thread for my game time updates, selections and wagers.

These will once again be MY PLAYS and my opinion. I really don’t care if you follow or not. Not looking to debate my selections.

The totals (Over/Unders) will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments affect the game and they are only an opinion. I will post my power ratings, my dog plays and some money line plays if you care.

We had almost 19,000 views last year on this thread and over 65,000 views going back to 2012 so I’m hoping we can top that this year.

Happy Holidays and best of luck.
 
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Posted: #2
I will post the early recap for some of you that have not followed in years past or like an annual reminder.
As the odds change so can the selection. Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.

There will be in the coming weeks analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders), which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments affect the game. The totals are only Opinions so we focus on the side plays. At the beginning is where I jump on some early lines that stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking and everyone that has seen or followed Spooky this millennium can corroborate how solid they usually are.

ANYTIME A TEAM IS PICKED TO WIN OUTRIGHT AND ALSO COVER WITH THE POINTS MAKES THEM A PLAY. NO LOOKING BACK, NO THINKING ABOUT IT.

There will also be some live underdogs. So be ready. These teams are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs. Get them while they are hot. Don't be afraid when the pointspread moves. It is done so emotionally. QB gets hurt, RB gets suspended, who cares. The points will be adjusted. These selections are not based on 1 or 2 games but an entire season. Remember since 1977 this has not lost.

Just use some judgment and as we get closer the plays will become clearer and Spooky will let you know.

If you like a Pro game, start making small parlays with them on the best bets. By the time game time comes around you should have tons of action on the later games and that creates tons of profit!!!!

Since many ask about the way I mess with the strengths of each play, this is a synopsis of what I do.

I will usually rank them 1 thru 5 smileys with the 4 and 5 smileys very infrequently. If there is no smiley listed than you can consider that anywhere from an opinion to 1 smiley. When playing on the totals I will almost always consider it an opinion. For the simple reason that I crunch numbers during bowl season and the side has a value outside of what is my opinion. The total is basically my opinion (which is what I do the remaining months of the year). The total is totally subjective. I usually will make the total play anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the listed play. So if I am playing 300 on a game then the total would be anywhere from 75 to 150 if we were to put a numerical dollar value on it.

Please remember this is what I do, I am not getting paid to determine your money management or what you should be doing. Certainly you can play everything equal or you can follow the smileys. This is just my Bowl Express and sharing with everyone what I am doing for the most part.


=====================================================

This where I'll get started early on.

Here will be all the team strengths indicating what teams are the strongest plays based solely on the system and based on the current pointspread.
 
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Posted: #4
Your ratings look a little different than years past.  App State 4th?  Oregon below several teams they'd wax now.  Not sure I understand...
 
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Posted: #5
This thread is akin to the beginning of an X-Files episode 
 
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Posted: #6
Hey guys thanks for the responses! Every year the power rankings I do show some outliers that may not make sense....Appy State and Alcorn State are obviously not 2 of the top 6 teams in the country and at first glance it looks like a lot of the Pac-12 teams are undervalued..once again it's a guide that I use as I determine my plays...remember that I don't need Appy State to beat Ohio State I just need to determine if I think they can beat Ohio by more than the spread...stick around and see how it goes....play with me or fade me it's up to you....just trying to provide some information on how my plays are determined and you will see with each one will come a write-up rather than just play this....good luck with the bowl season!
 
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Posted: #7
Interesting thread. You seem pretty straight forward. I like your style. Best of Luck, Spooky.  
 
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Posted: #8
Looking forward to the writeups!
 
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Posted: #9
Good luck Spooky
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #10
RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL

OHIO vs. APPALACHIAN STATE
Saturday, Dec. 19 5:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Read all our betting previews at Spooky Express


In Montgomery, Alabama the Ohio Bobcats are set to take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers. This game is set for Saturday December 19th, 2015, which is the first day of games. This game will start at 5:30pm EST. The Bobcats are out of the MAC Conference, and part of the East Division. The Bobcats are 8-4, and have won their last three games coming into this one. Ohio finished behind Bowling Green in the conference. For the Appalachian State Mountaineers, they are 10-2 coming into this game. The Mountaineers lost at Clemson early in the season, and then later to the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Mountaineers won their last three games of the season.

Mountaineers Run Wild with the Football

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are known very well for their running game. The Mountaineers ranked 6th in the nation in rushing yards, with just shy of 270 per game. The leading rusher for the Mountaineers was Marcus Cox, with more than 1,200 on the season. Cox also finished the regular season with 8 touchdowns. Appalachian State is playing in their first bowl game as a FBS team.

Solich has Bobcats Relevant in College Football

Frank Solich has done a great job as the head football coach at Ohio University. The Bobcats also does most of their offense via the run. The Bobcats rank 45th in the country in rushing yards, but have just 187.1 per game. Ohio’s top running back has been A.J. Ouelette. He finished with more than 640 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. The Bobcats picked up over 600 total yards of offense in their most recent game; a win over Ball State. Ohio’s linebacker Quentin Poling is tied with the lead on the team in interceptions and sacks. The Bobcats went 6-6 a season ago but did not receive a bowl bid.

Mountaineers Roll in this Game

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are a team many would not want to mess with. They are getting closer to becoming a full blown BCS team, and they have a ton of talent. Many know about them on a small scale, but now that they are on the big stage, the story will be seen. Look for the Mountaineers to make a big push in this game and score a bunch of points on the ground. Both teams can run the football, but the Mountaineers are much better. The Appalachian State offense actually ranked in the Top 20 in points scored during the regular season. The Bobcats are going to have a tough time keeping up in this game. The bet of the Appalachian State Mountaineers -8 is a pretty easy one for us. Take the favorite in this one!

The Pick: Appalachian State -8

 
 
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Posted: #12
Where are the smileys
 
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Posted: #13
Hmmm can't edit.  Thought I pretty easy play would be more than 1 smiley....good luck spooky.

For those new, I've seen this guy around for 10+ years.  He's good people
 
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Posted: #14
Hey Spooky, thanks for your explanation for the App. State and Alcorn State rankings.  Good luck on bowl season 
 
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There will be in the coming weeks analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders), which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments affect the game. The totals are only Opinions so we focus on the side plays. At the beginning is where I jump on some early lines that stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking and everyone that has seen or followed Spooky this millennium can corroborate how solid they usually are.

Spooky,

Just to be clear.  If you take Appy State -8, with the game played on the 19th.  Guys who like that bet lock it in on an offshore account.  

Are you saying you could change your mind, or see a different number, then bet that, or even change teams?

If that is so, it will be pretty hard to lock in a potential GOOD number, then see you change everything, and their stuck with the original bet.  

Make sense?  Or am I not quite understanding your method.

Thanks for your thread, as I remember it last year.  You put a lot of hard work into them...appreciate it!
 
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Posted: #16
Thanks so much for the props guys....please be aware that THE PLAYS WILL NOT CHANGE once I put them out there....you mentioned the smileys - that may be what changes as we get closer to game time...putting out my initial thoughts on a couple of the earlier games with smileys to come later so please stay tuned....also will add some totals as we get closer to game time....
 
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CURE BOWL

SAN JOSE STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE
Saturday, Dec. 19 12:00 p.m. ET
CBSSN

Taking place at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida – the San Jose Spartans and Georgia State Panthers are set to get together as one of the several games on the first day of bowl games. It’s a full slate of games, and this thriller is one rounding it out. The San Jose Spartans are one of the few teams in a bowl game with just 5 wins on the season. The Spartans are 5-7, and played out of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans tied with Nevada for second place in the West Division, as San Diego State won the division. For Georgia State, they come into the game with a .500 record. The Panthers are 6-6, but needed their final four games as wins to get into a bowl game.

Panthers Struggle to Run Football

The Georgia State Panthers have a tough time running the football. The Panthers averaged just 103.1 yards per game on the ground this season. The passing game was much better than that, as they finished 8th in the country with more than 345 yards per game. The quarterback for the Panthers; Nick Arbuckle finished a regular season just 40 yards shy of 4,200 on the season. Arbuckle tossed for 26 touchdowns as well. His top target on the season was Penny Hart. Hart wrapped up the regular season with 71 receptions, 8 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards. The Panthers played one ranked team on the season; allowing 61 points to the Oregon Ducks in a 33 point loss.

Spartans have lost three out of four

The San Jose Spartans would love to finish the season on a strong note. The Spartans felt they would be better than 5 wins in the regular season. With early losses to BYU, Oregon State and Auburn lost conference games to San Diego State, Air Force, Nevada and their season finale to Boise State as well. The Spartans scored 28 points per game, and allowed teams to score 28.2 per game. San Jose State’s offense was best known for their passing, but they were pretty evenly matched. The Spartans quarterback Kenny Potter will need 105 yards to wrap up the season with 2,000 on the season. San Jose State’s running back Tyler Ervin was a workhorse with more than 1,400 yards on 264 carries and 13 touchdowns. The Spartans are one of three teams in a bowl game without 6 or more wins.

Take the Spartans

Look for the San Jose Spartans to win this game. While it may not be a blowout, San Jose State is at least a touchdown better than the Georgia State Panthers. The Spartans will take advantage of their great passing defense to limit the Panthers offense. This would be a great win to round out the season for the Spartans. The bet in this game is the San Jose Spartans -3 over the Georgia State Panthers in the Autonation Cure bowl.


The Pick: San Jose -3
 
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R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL

ARKANSAS STATE vs. LOUISIANA TECH
Saturday, Dec. 19 9:00 p.m. ET
ESPN
Read all our betting previews at Spooky Express

The Red Wolves of Arkansas State are the champions out of the Sun Belt Conference, and hold a 9-3 record. Since starting the season 1-3, the Red Wolves have won 8 straight games. The Red Wolves lost early on to USC, Missouri and Toledo before running the table. For the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, they are 8-4 heading into their bowl game, and finished second place in Conference USA – West. The Bulldogs have non conference losses at Kansas State and Mississippi State and in Conference USA losses to Western Kentucky and Southern Mississippi.

Bulldogs Defend the Run Well

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ranked 9th in the nation in run defense. That should play a key factor in this game, as their opponent likes to run and throw the ball. The Bulldogs offense ranked 15th in the nation in passing yards. Louisiana Tech’s quarterback Jeff Driskel will need 425 yards in this game to reach 4,000 on the season. He also threw for 24 touchdowns, with 8 of them to Trent Taylor. Taylor led the team with 89 receptions, 8 touchdowns and more than 1,100 yards. The ground game for Louisiana Tech was anchored by Kenneth Dixon. Dixon rushed 176 times and got into the end zone 17 times. Dixon needs 32 yards to reach 1,000 on the season.

Red Wolves Sleeping Giant

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have been a sleeping giant in NCAA Football for a couple seasons now. The Red Wolves fared better on the ground than via the pass, but were effective at both. Arkansas State rushed for 235.8 yards per game, which was 14th in the country. The Red Wolves also finished 8th in points scored with 41 per game. In the last three games, the Red Wolves averaged 55 points per game. In the three losses for Arkansas State this season, they scored just a total of 33 points.


Too Tough to Call

This is going to be an excellent game. Both of these teams will have a good crowd, as it’s not too far of a travel. For now, the lean is towards the Arkansas State Red Wolves at -1, but a good idea to check back as we get closer to the game in case of a change in this pick. There is a lot of stuff that could change this pick between now and the 19th of December. One of the latest is two Arkansas State players were arrested on drug charges. This certainly could change the pick of this game. Leaning Arkansas State -1, but check back later!


Leaning: Arkansas St -1
The Pick: TBA
 
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GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL

ARIZONA vs. NEW MEXICO
Saturday, Dec. 19 2:00 p.m. ET
ESPN
Read all our betting previews at Spooky Express

Arizona got into a bowl game, despite losing four of their last five games. In the most recent loss, the Wildcats allowed 52 points to rival Arizona State. The Wildcats finished 5th in the Pac-12 South. For the New Mexico Lobos, they wrapped up a 7-5 season. The Lobo’s finished second in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference, tied with Boise State and Colorado State. New Mexico is coming off a 47-35 win over Air Force to wrap up the regular season.

Lobos Look to Run Wild

The New Mexico Lobos finished the regular season 9th in the nation in rushing offense. The Lobos averaged more than 246 yards per game on the ground. The pass game was almost nill as they averaged just 131 per game, near the bottom in the nation. The run game was anchored by Jhurell Pressley, the running back with 135 carries and 11 touchdowns. Quarterback Lamar Jordan finished the season with his second straight 600+ yard rushing season, and had 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. Jordan finished with just 4 passing touchdowns to 6 interceptions.

Wildcats Hopeful Scooby Plays

The Arizona Wildcats are hopeful Scooby Wright III can play after hurting his foot earlier in the season. Rich Rodriguez is the head coach at Arizona, and many discussed him leaving and going to South Carolina. He is not going there, and it appears he will remain the head coach at Arizona. The Wildcats are led by quarterback Anu Solomon, with more than 2,300 passing yards and 18 touchdowns on the season, despite missing action, including the season finale against Arizona State with a concussion. It appears the quarterback will be back in time for this game. Nick Wilson, the top running back for Arizona wrapped up a season with 725 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. The problem for Arizona has been defensively, where they allowed more than 35 points per game. The Wildcats allowed 50+ in three losses this season.

Local Team Is Big Underdog in this One

The game is called the Gildan New Mexico Bowl, and it has a team that is nearby in it. This should help the draw, but after that, it has two teams that are not very good in it. This game could be the highest scoring bowl game of the first day of games. The Wildcats and Lobos can both put points on the board, and neither team has a defense that will stand dominate. With the Arizona quarterback likely playing, that gives them an advantage, because at least they can run and throw the football. New Mexico appears to be too one dimensional to trust in this game. It’s a tough game to call, but in the end, we are going to lean towards the Arizona Wildcats -10, but check back as we get a little closer to the game.


Leaning: Arizona -10
The Pick: TBA
 
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ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL

BYU vs. UTAH
Saturday, Dec. 19 3:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Read all our betting previews at Spooky Express

The Brigham Young Cougars will get a crack at the Pac-12 representative Utah Utes. The Brigham Young Cougars wrapped up a 9-3 season as an independent. The Cougars lost back to back games at UCLA and Michigan, before winning five in a row. The Cougars then fell to Missouri, but backed it up with wins over Fresno State and Utah State. For the Utes, they climbed into the Top 5 in the nation through the first six games. A loss at USC dropped them, followed by consecutive losses to Arizona and UCLA. The Utes wrapped up the season with a 20-14 win over Colorado.

Utes Known for their Defense

The Utah Utes are definitely known as a defensive team. The Utes ranked 6th in the country in rushing defense during the regular season. Offensively, Utah was fairly hit or miss, as Travis Wilson led the way with 2,024 passing yards. Devontae Booker, the running back for the Utes carried the football 268 times for 11 touchdowns and more than 1,200 yards. Utah is led by Kyle Whittingham, and he feels his team is on the brink of getting that Pac-12 title. The Utes finished in a tie with USC for the Pac-12 South, but the 42-24 loss to the Trojans sent them to this game, instead of getting into the Pac-12 title game.

Cougars Air Attack is Impressive

The Cougars played a pretty good schedule this season. During that tough schedule, they used their passing attack far more than the ground game. The Cougars were 5 yards per game shy of averaging 300 on the season. The Cougars scored 37 points per game, which ranked 16th in the nation. The defense was also pretty solid; allowing 21.8 points per game. The Cougars used backup quarterback Tanner Mangum, who finished with more than 3,000 passing yards and 21 touchdowns on the season. Running back Algernon Brown rushed 122 times for more than 600 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Cougars scored 51.5 points per game in their final two of the season.

Rivalry Game; Side with the Underdog

This is a great rivalry game. This is a game many people in the state of Utah have wanted to see for a long time. The Cougars and the Utes are going to go at it, and neither team will think kindly to the other. Many people in the state of Utah have ties with both of these teams, so a ton will be on the long in terms of bragging rights. On the field, the Cougars seem like they could be the better team, despite the injuries. The passing attack of Brigham Young should be the deciding factor in this game. The Cougars will have a tough time running the football, but passing shouldn’t be a problem. It’s hard to not take the Cougars, especially since they are getting points. The Cougars are a field goal underdog. Bet the BYU Cougars +3 and a potential MoneyLine play here.


The Pick: BYU +3
 
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MIAMI BEACH BOWL

SOUTH FLORIDA vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Monday, Dec. 21 2:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Read all our betting previews at Spooky Express

The two losses for Western Kentucky this season came at Indiana and LSU. For the South Florida Bulls, they are 8-4 on the season. The Bulls finished second in the American Athletic Conference, East Division. They lost at Florida State and Maryland in non conference play, and Memphis and Navy in conference games. Their biggest win was at home over Temple. Overall, the Bulls have won four straight games.

Bulls playing Red Hot Football

The South Florida Bulls have won seven of their last eight games. Their only loss during that time was at Navy in a 29-17 affair. The Bulls since then have downed East Carolina, Temple, Cincinnati and Central Florida. The Bulls are scoring 33 points per game, and allowing 21.1. The defense is ranked 23rd in the country in defense. In those four wins, they allowed 17 points per game. South Florida’s head coach Willie Taggert has the team looking very good, with Quinton Flowers behind center, and Marlon Mack leading the running back charge. Rodney Adams is the top receiver for the Bulls, with 8 touchdown receptions on the season.

Doughty Nearing Milestone

Quarterback Brandon Doughty for Western Kentucky needs 406 yards in this bowl game to reach 5,000 on the season. South Florida’s defense is not an easy one for that to happen against, but it’s nearing. The Hilltoppers are scoring 44 points per game, which ranked 4th in all of college football. The passing game for Western Kentucky has been sharp, averaging 365.4 yards per game. Another milestone will likely happen when Anthony Wales picks up 14 rushing yards. That will put him at 1,000 for the season. Wales also has 7 touchdowns. Taywan Taylor is the top receiver for Western Kentucky, with over 1,300 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Hilltoppers have scored 35 points or more in every win except their opener at Vanderbilt.

Take the Bulls as Local Favorite

The South Florida Bulls essentially are at home for this game. South Florida will have a nice crowd for this bowl game, and are a slight underdog in this game. The Bulls can score as well, and should be able to keep up with Doughty and the Hilltoppers. It’s a little too early to give an 100% sure fire locked pick, but for now, we are going to favor the underdog here. Their is some potential to bet South Florida on the Moneyline here. But the bet to make is South Florida +4 over the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. Check back closer for our final pick a little closer to game day.

The Pick: South Florida +4
 
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Posted: #23
love it master SPOOKY 
how the hell are you ?
just follow you and make some money 
 
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Thank you sir everything is great in Spooky land! Good Luck with the bowl season1
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by mrdish33:

love it master SPOOKY 
how the hell are you ?
just follow you and make some money 
Agreed, Spooky is a wise sometimes dominant picker.
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